Dataset Information

Performance of a Multigene Genomic Classifier in Thyroid Nodules With Indeterminate Cytology: A Prospective Blinded Multicenter Study.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Approximately 20% of fine-needle aspirations (FNA) of thyroid nodules have indeterminate cytology, most frequently Bethesda category III or IV. Diagnostic surgeries can be avoided for these patients if the nodules are reliably diagnosed as benign without surgery.

Objective

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of a multigene classifier (GC) test (ThyroSeq v3) for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.

Design, setting, and participants

Prospective, blinded cohort study conducted at 10 medical centers, with 782 patients with 1013 nodules enrolled. Eligibility criteria were met in 256 patients with 286 nodules; central pathology review was performed on 274 nodules.

Interventions

A total of 286 FNA samples from thyroid nodules underwent molecular analysis using the multigene GC (ThyroSeq v3).

Main outcomes and measures

The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy of the test for thyroid nodules with Bethesda III and IV cytology. The secondary outcome was prediction of cancer by specific genetic alterations in Bethesda III to V nodules.

Results

Of the 286 cytologically indeterminate nodules, 206 (72%) were benign, 69 (24%) malignant, and 11 (4%) noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclei (NIFTP). A total of 257 (90%) nodules (154 Bethesda III, 93 Bethesda IV, and 10 Bethesda V) had informative GC analysis, with 61% classified as negative and 39% as positive. In Bethesda III and IV nodules combined, the test demonstrated a 94% (95% CI, 86%-98%) sensitivity and 82% (95% CI, 75%-87%) specificity. With a cancer/NIFTP prevalence of 28%, the negative predictive value (NPV) was 97% (95% CI, 93%-99%) and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 66% (95% CI, 56%-75%). The observed 3% false-negative rate was similar to that of benign cytology, and the missed cancers were all low-risk tumors. Among nodules testing positive, specific groups of genetic alterations had cancer probabilities varying from 59% to 100%.

Conclusions and relevance

In this prospective, blinded, multicenter study, the multigene GC test demonstrated a high sensitivity/NPV and reasonably high specificity/PPV, which may obviate diagnostic surgery in up to 61% of patients with Bethesda III to IV indeterminate nodules, and up to 82% of all benign nodules with indeterminate cytology. Information on specific genetic alterations obtained from FNA may help inform individualized treatment of patients with a positive test result.

SUBMITTER: Steward DL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6439562 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Although most thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology are benign, in most of the world, surgery remains as the most frequent diagnostic approach. We have previously reported a 10-gene thyroid genetic classifier, which accurately predicts benign thyroid nodules. The assay is a prototype diagnostic kit suitable for reference laboratory testing and could potentially avoid unnecessary diagnostic surgery in patients with indeterminate thyroid cytology. Methods: Classifier performance was tested in two independent, ethnically diverse, prospective multicenter trials (TGCT-1/Chile and TGCT-2/USA). A total of 4061 fine-needle aspirations were collected from 15 institutions, of which 897 (22%) were called indeterminate. The clinical site was blind to the classifier score and the clinical laboratory blind to the pathology report. A matched surgical pathology and valid classifier score was available for 270 samples. Results: Cohorts showed significant differences, including (i) clinical site patient source (academic, 43% and 97% for TGCT-1 and -2, respectively); (ii) ethnic diversity, with a greater proportion of the Hispanic population (40% vs. 3%) for TGCT-1 and a greater proportion of African American (11% vs. 0%) and Asian (10% vs. 1%) populations for TGCT-2; and (iii) tumor size (mean of 1.7 and 2.5 cm for TGCT-1 and -2, respectively). Overall, there were no differences in the histopathological profile between cohorts. Forty-one of 155 and 45 of 115 nodules were malignant (cancer prevalence of 26% and 39% for TGCT-1 and -2, respectively). The classifier predicted 37 of 41 and 41 of 45 malignant nodules, yielding a sensitivity of 90% [95% confidence interval; CI 77-97] and 91% [95% CI 79-98] for TGCT-1 and -2, respectively. One hundred one of 114 and 61 of 70 nodules were correctly predicted as benign, yielding a specificity of 89% [95% CI 82-94] and 87% [95% CI 77-94], respectively. The negative predictive values for TGCT-1 and TGCT-2 were 96% and 94%, respectively, whereas the positive predictive values were 74% and 82%, respectively. The overall accuracy for both cohorts was 89%. Conclusions: Clinical validation of the classifier demonstrates equivalent performance in two independent and ethnically diverse cohorts, accurately predicting benign thyroid nodules that can undergo surveillance as an alternative to diagnostic surgery.

Project description:BackgroundThyroid nodules are highly prevalent, with fine-needle aspiration (FNA) commonly used as the standard preoperative tool for their diagnosis. However, the method classifies some of the samples as indeterminate, leading to unnecessary surgery. In this study, we evaluated the value of next-generation sequencing (NGS) for cancer diagnosis in indeterminate thyroid nodules.Materials and methodsWe performed a prospective, blinded cohort study on 189 patients, with 196 Bethesda III/IV nodules. Specifically, we analyzed DNA mutations and RNA fusions across the FNA samples using NGS, then reviewed follow-up reports from 84 nodules following definitive surgery, to determine the assay performance.ResultsEnough DNA and RNA were obtained in 188 nodules, revealing mutations or fusions in 34.6% of them. The most frequently mutated genes were RAS, followed by BRAF V600E. Based on surgical pathology, 39% (33/84) and 4.8% (4/84) of the nodules were malignant and intermediate, respectively. According to the risk stratification criteria, 28 cases were categorized High-Risk group, all of the resected nodules (n = 20) were malignant. Twenty-four thyroid nodules were in the Low-Risk group, 28.6% (4/14) surgically removed nodules were malignant. In the Benign-Like category, 18.0% (9/50) were malignant. Five out of 13 nodules with benign mutations were resected, including SPOP, EZH1, and ZNF148, all of them were benign. If genetic alterations annotated with High-Risk or Low-Risk was considered as positive, and negative if Benign-Like. Multigene testing revealed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 73%, 80%, 71%, and 82%, respectively. In addition, if four intermediate nodules were counted as malignant, the PPV and NPV were 71% and 74%.ConclusionOur results allow for further stratification of Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules based on the risk of their malignancy. SPOP, EZH1, and ZNF148 mutations may be used as benign markers.

Project description:ImportanceUse of next-generation sequencing of RNA and machine learning algorithms can classify the risk of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules to limit unnecessary diagnostic surgery.ObjectiveTo measure the performance of a genomic sequencing classifier for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.Design, setting, and participantsA blinded validation study was conducted on a set of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules collected by fine-needle aspiration biopsy between June 2009 and December 2010 from 49 academic and community centers in the United States. All patients underwent surgery without genomic information and were assigned a histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic information. There were 210 potentially eligible thyroid biopsy samples with Bethesda III or IV indeterminate cytopathology that constituted a cohort previously used to validate the gene expression classifier. Of these, 191 samples (91.0%) had adequate residual RNA for validation of the genomic sequencing classifier. Algorithm development and independent validation occurred between August 2016 and May 2017.ExposuresThyroid nodule surgical histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic data.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point was measurement of genomic sequencing classifier sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values in biopsies from Bethesda III and IV nodules. The secondary end point was measurement of classifier performance in biopsies from Bethesda II, V, and VI nodules.ResultsOf the 183 included patients, 142 (77.6%) were women, and the mean (range) age was 51.7 (22.0-85.0) years. The genomic sequencing classifier had a sensitivity of 91% (95% CI, 79-98) and a specificity of 68% (95% CI, 60-76). At 24% cancer prevalence, the negative predictive value was 96% (95% CI, 90-99) and the positive predictive value was 47% (95% CI, 36-58).Conclusions and relevanceThe genomic sequencing classifier demonstrates high sensitivity and accuracy for identifying benign nodules. Its 36% increase in specificity compared with the gene expression classifier potentially increases the number of patients with benign nodules who can safely avoid unnecessary diagnostic surgery.