Modelling the potential of genetic control of malaria mosquitoes at national scale.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: North AR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6440076 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modelling the potential of genetic control of malaria mosquitoes at national scale.
North Ace R AR Burt Austin A Godfray H Charles J HCJ
BMC biology 20190329 1
<h4>Background</h4>The persistence of malaria in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa has motivated the development of novel tools to complement existing control programmes, including gene-drive technologies to modify mosquito vector populations. Here, we use a stochastic simulation model to explore the potential of using a driving-Y chromosome to suppress vector populations in a 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> area of West Africa including all of Burkina Faso.<h4>Results</h4>The consequence of drivi ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundIncreasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced.Methods and findingsA mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be removed without high expectation of resurgence. These, potentially safe, scenarios are characterized by low historic entomological inoculation rates, successful vector control programmes that achieve elimination or near elimination, and effective surveillance systems with high coverage and effective treatment of malaria cases.ConclusionsProgrammes and funding agencies considering scaling back or withdrawing vector control from previously malaria endemic areas need to first carefully consider current receptivity and other available interventions in a risk assessment. Surveillance for resurgence needs to be continuously conducted over a long period of time in order to ensure a rapid response should vector control be withdrawn.
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