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The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima. METHODS:Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of combinations of interventions compared with the standard of care on reducing HIV incidence over a 10-year period. We simulated HIV transmission accounting for differences in sexual positioning in anal intercourse and condom use by partner type and fitted the model to HIV surveillance data using Latin hypercube sampling. The interventions we considered were 15% relative increase in condom use with clients and 10% relative increase with stable partners; increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage at CD4 count lower than 500 cells per mm3 and greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3; and 15% pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage using generic and branded formulations. We considered a basic scenario accounting for current limitations in the Peruvian HIV services and an enhanced scenario assuming achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and general improvements in HIV services. The 50 best fits according to log-likelihood were used to give the minimum and maximum values of intervention effect for each combination. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to measure the negative health outcomes associated with HIV infection that could be averted through the interventions investigated and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to compare their cost-effectiveness. FINDINGS:Under the basic scenario, combining the four interventions of increasing condom use with clients and stable partners, extending ART to people with CD4 count greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3, and 15% PrEP coverage with generic drugs would avert 47% (range 27-51) of new infections in TWSW, their clients, and their stable partners over 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$509 per DALY averted. Under the enhanced scenario, this strategy would avert 61% (44-64) of new infections among this population with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1003 per DALY averted. Under both scenarios, implementation of this strategy approaches or surpasses the 50% incidence reduction goal and would represent a cost-effective use of country resources if generic PrEP drugs are used. The total cost of implementing this strategy under the enhanced scenario would be approximately $1·2 million per year over 10 years, corresponding to 10% of the current Global Fund's yearly contribution in Peru. INTERPRETATION:Investments in HIV services among TWSW in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints. Notable improvements in HIV testing rates, innovative interventions to increase condom use, and reduced PrEP costs will be key to achieving the 50% incidence reduction goal. Modelling studies incorporating stakeholders' perspectives and health system assessments can bring added value to HIV policy making. FUNDING:National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Borquez A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6447307 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

Bórquez Annick A Guanira Juan Vicente JV Revill Paul P Caballero Patricia P Silva-Santisteban Alfonso A Kelly Sherrie S Salazar Ximena X Bracamonte Patricia P Minaya Percy P Hallett Timothy B TB Cáceres Carlos F CF

The Lancet. Public health 20190123 3

<h4>Background</h4>HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima.<h4>Methods</h4>Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness o ...[more]

PMID: 30683587

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Project description:HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations.We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a "conditional efficacy" parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036-US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained.A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women in Peru are at high risk for acquiring syphilis and HIV infection. The World Health Organization highly recommends screening for HIV and syphilis to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with untreated infections. We aimed to identify factors associated with dual testing preferences for HIV and syphilis infection among MSM and transgender women in Lima, Peru.MethodsWe used conjoint analysis, an innovative method for systematically estimating consumer preferences. We created eight hypothetical test profiles varying across six dichotomous attributes: cost (free vs. $4), potential for false positive syphilis result (no false positive vs. some risk of false positive), time-to-result (20 minutes vs. 1 week), blood draw method (finger prick vs. venipuncture), test type (rapid vs. laboratory), and number of draws (1 vs. 2). We fit a conjoint analysis model for each participant using a simple main effects ANOVA. Attribute importance values were calculated using percentages from relative ranges in the attribute's utility values. Results were summarized across participants and averages were reported.ResultsWe recruited 415 MSM/transgender women over 18 years of age from two STD clinics in Lima, Peru. No potential for syphilis false positive result (no false positive vs. some potential for false positive) had the largest average impact on willingness to use the test and on average accounted for 23.8% of test type preference, followed by cost (free vs. ~USD$4; 21.6%), time to results (20 minutes vs. 1 week; 17.4%), number of blood draws (1 draw vs. 2 draws; 13.8%), method of blood draw (fingerprick vs. venipuncture; 13.7%), and test type (rapid POC vs. laboratory; 9.7%).ConclusionMSM/transgender women in Peru prioritized accuracy, cost, timeliness and number of blood draws for HIV and syphilis testing. Implementing a low cost, accurate, rapid and dual testing strategy for HIV and syphilis could improve screening uptake and accessibility of testing to accelerate time to treatment.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Female Sex workers (FSW) are important in driving HIV transmission in West Africa. The Yerelon clinic in Burkina Faso has provided combined preventative and therapeutic services, including anti-retroviral therapy (ART), for FSWs since 1998, with evidence suggesting it has decreased HIV prevalence and incidence in this group. No data exists on the costs of such a combined prevention and treatment intervention for FSW. This study aims to determine the mean cost of service provision per patient year for FSWs attending the Yerelon clinic, and identifies differences in costs between patient groups. METHODS: Field-based retrospective cost analyses were undertaken using top-down and bottom-up costing approaches for 2010. Expenditure and service utilisation data was collated from primary sources. Patients were divided into groups according to full-time or occasional sex-work, HIV status and ART duration. Patient specific service use data was extracted. Costs were converted to 2012 US$. Sensitivity analyses considered removal of all research costs, different discount rates and use of different ART treatment regimens and follow-up schedules. RESULTS: Using the top-down costing approach, the mean annual cost of service provision for FSWs on or off ART was US$1098 and US$882, respectively. The cost for FSWs on ART reduced by 29%, to US$781, if all research-related costs were removed and national ART monitoring guidelines were followed. The bottom-up patient-level costing showed the cost of the service varied greatly across patient groups (US$505-US$1117), primarily due to large differences in the costs of different ART regimens. HIV-negative women had the lowest annual cost at US$505. CONCLUSION: Whilst FSWs may require specialised services to optimise their care and hence, the public health benefits, our study shows that the cost of ART provision within a combined prevention and treatment intervention setting is comparable to providing ART to other population groups in Africa.

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The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

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The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

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