Project description:PURPOSE:Approximately 16% of U.S. births to women aged 15-19 years are repeat (second or higher order) births. Repeat teen mothers are at elevated risk for poor perinatal outcomes. Geographic clustering and correlates of repeat teen birth are unknown. METHODS:Data from birth certificates on N = 629,939 teen births in N = 3,108 U.S. counties in 2015-2017 were merged with data on county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and health provider characteristics. We identified contiguous clusters of counties with significantly elevated rates of first teen births only, repeat teen births, both, or neither between 2015 and 2017 and compared demographic, socioeconomic, and medical provider characteristics of counties between 2010 and 2016 in each cluster type. RESULTS:A total of 193 counties (6.21%) had high rates of repeat births only; 504 (16.22%) had high rates of first teen birth only; 991 (31.89%) had high rates of both repeat and first teen births; and 1,420 (45.69%) had neither. Counties with high repeat (vs. first only) birth rates had higher rates of poverty and unemployment, higher levels of income inequality, lower high school graduation rates, a higher share of racial and ethnic minority residents, fewer publicly funded family planning clinics per capita, and more women receiving contraceptive services at publicly funded clinics. CONCLUSIONS:First and repeat teen births cluster in differentially resourced geographic areas. Counties with high repeat teen birth rates have lower socioeconomic conditions than counties with high rates of first teen births only. These counties are more reliant on publicly funded family planning clinics but have fewer of them per capita.
Project description:ImportanceRisk of opioid use disorder, overdose, and death from prescription opioids increases as dosage, duration, and use of extended-release and long-acting formulations increase. States are well suited to respond to the opioid crisis through legislation, regulations, enforcement, surveillance, and other interventions.ObjectiveTo estimate temporal trends and geographic variations in 6 key opioid prescribing measures in 50 US states and the District of Columbia.Design, setting, and participantsPopulation-based cross-sectional analysis of opioid prescriptions filled nationwide at US retail pharmacies between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2017. Data were obtained from the IQVIA Xponent database. All US residents who had an opioid prescription filled at a US retail pharmacy were included.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were annual amount of opioids prescribed in morphine milligram equivalents (MME) per person; mean duration per prescription in days; and 4 separate prescribing rates-for prescriptions 3 or fewer days, those 30 days or longer, those with a high daily dosage (≥90 MME), and those with extended-release and long-acting formulations.ResultsBetween 2006 and 2017, an estimated 233.7 million opioid prescriptions were filled in retail pharmacies in the United States each year. For all states combined, 4 measures decreased: (1) mean (SD) amount of opioids prescribed (mean [SD] decrease, 12.8% [12.6%]) from 628.4 (178.0) to 543.4 (158.6) MME per person, a statistically significant decrease in 23 states; (2) high daily dosage (mean [SD] decrease, 53.1% [13.6%]) from 12.3 (3.4) to 5.6 (1.7) per 100 persons, a statistically significant decrease in 49 states; (3) short-term (≤3 days) duration (mean [SD] decrease, 43.1% [9.4%]) from 18.0 (5.4) to 10.0 (2.5) per 100 persons, a statistically significant decrease in 48 states; and (4) extended-release and long-acting formulations (mean [SD] decrease, 14.7% [13.7%]) from 7.2 (1.9) to 6.0 (1.7) per 100 persons, a statistically significant decrease in 27 states. Two measures increased, each associated with the duration of prescription dispensed: (1) mean (SD) prescription duration (mean [SD] increase, 37.6% [6.9%]) from 13.0 (1.2) to 17.9 (1.4) days, a statistically significant increase in every state; and (2) prescriptions for a term of 30 days or longer (mean [SD] increase, 37.7% [28.9%]) from 18.3 (7.7) to 24.9 (10.7) per 100 persons, a statistically significant increase in 39 states. Two- to 3-fold geographic differences were observed across states, measured by comparing the ratio of each state's 90th to 10th percentile for each measure.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, across 12 years, the mean duration and prescribing rate for long-term prescriptions of opioids increased, whereas the amount of opioids prescribed per person and prescribing rate for high-dosage prescriptions, short-term prescriptions, and extended-release and long-acting formulations decreased. Some decreases were significant, but results were still high. Two- to 3-fold state variation in 5 measures occurred in most states. This information may help when state-specific intervention programs are being designed.
Project description:Background and aimsSince 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level.Approach and resultsWe estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline.ConclusionsAlthough many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.
Project description:Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999-2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25-64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999-2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013-2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999-2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013-2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults.
Project description:The prescription of opioid analgesics by dental professionals is widespread in the United States. Policy makers, government agencies, and professional organizations consider this phenomenon a growing public health concern. This study examined trends in the prescription of opioid analgesics for adults by dental professionals and associated factors in the United States. Data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (1996-2013) were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were calculated separately for each year. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate the overall trend during the period with and without adjusting for dental procedures and personal characteristics. Survey weights were incorporated to handle the sampling design. The prescription of opioid analgesics following dental care increased over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, source of payment, and type of dental procedure, the odds ratio (OR) of prescribing opioid analgesics following a dental visit per each decade difference was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-1.38). Surgical, root canal, and implant procedures had the highest rates of opioid prescriptions and the greatest increases in rates over the study period. After adjusting for personal characteristics and type of dental procedure, the OR of receiving a prescription for opioids comparing blacks, Asians, and Hispanics to whites was 1.29 (95% CI, 1.17-1.41), 0.57 (95% CI, 0.47-0.70), and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), respectively. Opioid analgesic prescriptions following dental visits increased over time after adjusting for personal characteristics and type of dental procedure. The odds of receiving a prescription for opioids were higher for certain racial/ethnic minority groups. Knowledge Transfer Statement: This study highlights dental professionals prescribing practices of opioid analgesics by following dental treatments in the United States. With this knowledge, appropriate guidelines, protocols, and policies can be developed and implemented to address any inappropriate prescribing practices of opioid analgesics. In addition, this information could lead to an improvement in the prescribing practices of dental professionals and to evidence-based therapeutic decision making.
Project description:Importance:Small studies and anecdotal evidence suggest marked differences in the use of opioids after surgery internationally; however, this has not been evaluated systematically across populations receiving similar procedures in different countries. Objective:To determine whether there are differences in the frequency, amount, and type of opioids dispensed after surgery among the United States, Canada, and Sweden. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cohort study included patients without previous opioid prescriptions aged 16 to 64 years who underwent 4 low-risk surgical procedures (ie, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, laparoscopic appendectomy, arthroscopic knee meniscectomy, and breast excision) between January 2013 and December 2015 in the United States, between July 2013 and March 2016 in Canada, and between January 2013 and December 2014 in Sweden. Data analysis was conducted in all 3 countries from July 2018 to October 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:The main outcome was postoperative opioid prescriptions filled within 7 days after discharge; the percentage of patients who filled a prescription, the total morphine milligram equivalent (MME) dose, and type of opioid dispensed were compared. Results:The study sample consisted of 129 379 patients in the United States, 84 653 in Canada, and 9802 in Sweden. Overall, 52 427 patients (40.5%) in the United States were men, with a mean (SD) age of 45.1 (12.7) years; in Canada, 25 074 patients (29.6%) were men, with a mean (SD) age of 43.5 (13.0) years; and in Sweden, 3314 (33.8%) were men, with a mean (SD) age of 42.5 (13.0). The proportion of patients in Sweden who filled an opioid prescription within the first 7 days after discharge for any procedure was lower than patients treated in the United States and Canada (Sweden, 1086 [11.1%]; United States, 98 594 [76.2%]; Canada, 66 544 [78.6%]; P < .001). For patients who filled a prescription, the mean (SD) MME dispensed within 7 days of discharge was highest in United States (247 [145] MME vs 169 [93] MME in Canada and 197 [191] MME in Sweden). Codeine and tramadol were more commonly dispensed in Canada (codeine, 26 136 patients [39.3%]; tramadol, 12 285 patients [18.5%]) and Sweden (codeine, 170 patients [15.7%]; tramadol, 315 patients [29.0%]) than in the United States (codeine, 3210 patients [3.3%]; tramadol, 3425 patients [3.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance:The findings indicate that the United States and Canada have a 7-fold higher rate of opioid prescriptions filled in the immediate postoperative period compared with Sweden. Of the 3 countries examined, the mean dose of opioids for most surgical procedures was highest in the United States.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Prescription opioid overdoses have increased dramatically in recent years, with the highest rates among Medicaid enrollees. High-risk prescribing includes practices associated with overdoses and a range of additional opioid-related problems. OBJECTIVES:To identify individual- and county-level factors associated with high-risk prescribing among Medicaid enrollees receiving opioids. METHODS:In a four-states, cross-sectional claims data study, Medicaid enrollees 18-64 years old with a new opioid analgesic treatment episode 2007-2009 were identified. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with high-risk prescribing, defined as high-dose opioid prescribing (morphine equivalent daily dose ?100 mg for >6 days), opioid overlap, opioid-benzodiazepine overlap. RESULTS:High-risk prescribing occurred in 39.4% of episodes. Older age, rural county of residence, white race, and major depression diagnosis were associated with higher rates of all types of high-risk prescribing. Individuals with prior opioid, alcohol, and hypnotic/sedative use disorder diagnoses had lower odds of high-dose opioid prescribing but higher odds of opioid overlap and opioid-benzodiazepine overlap than individuals without such disorders. High-dose opioid prescribing in Massachusetts was less common than in California, Illinois, and New York, whereas the rate of benzodiazepine overlap in Massachusetts was more common than in other states. Conclusions/Importance: High-risk prescribing was common and associated with several important demographic, clinical, and community factors. Findings can be used to inform targeted interventions designed to reduce such prescribing, and given state variation observed, further research is needed to better understand the effects of state policies on high-risk prescribing.
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine county level associations between the prevalence of medical and recreational cannabis stores (referred to as dispensaries) and opioid related mortality rates.DesignPanel regression methods.Setting812 counties in the United States in the 23 states that allowed legal forms of cannabis dispensaries to operate by the end of 2017.ParticipantsThe study used US mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention combined with US census data and data from Weedmaps.com on storefront dispensary operations. Data were analyzed at the county level by using panel regression methods.Main outcome measureThe main outcome measures were the log transformed, age adjusted mortality rates associated with all opioid types combined, and with subcategories of prescription opioids, heroin, and synthetic opioids other than methadone. The associations of medical dispensary and recreational dispensary counts with age adjusted mortality rates were also analyzed.ResultsCounty level dispensary count (natural logarithm) is negatively related to the log transformed, age adjusted mortality rate associated with all opioid types (β=-0.17, 95% confidence interval -0.23 to -0.11). According to this estimate, an increase from one to two storefront dispensaries in a county is associated with an estimated 17% reduction in all opioid related mortality rates. Dispensary count has a particularly strong negative association with deaths caused by synthetic opioids other than methadone (β=-0.21, 95% confidence interval -0.27 to -0.14), with an estimated 21% reduction in mortality rates associated with an increase from one to two dispensaries. Similar associations were found for medical versus recreational storefront dispensary counts on synthetic (non-methadone) opioid related mortality rates.ConclusionsHigher medical and recreational storefront dispensary counts are associated with reduced opioid related death rates, particularly deaths associated with synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. While the associations documented cannot be assumed to be causal, they suggest a potential association between increased prevalence of medical and recreational cannabis dispensaries and reduced opioid related mortality rates. This study highlights the importance of considering the complex supply side of related drug markets and how this shapes opioid use and misuse.
Project description:Importance:Progress against premature death due to noncommunicable chronic disease (NCD) has stagnated. In the United States, county-level variation in NCD premature mortality has widened, which has impeded progress toward mortality reduction for the World Health Organization (WHO) 25?×?25 target. Objectives:To estimate variations in county-level NCD premature mortality, to investigate factors associated with mortality, and to present the progress toward achieving the WHO 25?×?25 target by analyzing the trends in mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study focused on NCD premature mortality and its factors from 3109 counties using US mortality data for cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER databases and county-level characteristics data from multiple databases. Data were collected from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2017, and analyzed from April 1 through October 28, 2019. Exposures:County-level factors, including demographic composition, socioeconomic features, health care environment, and population health status. Main Outcomes and Measures:Variations in county-level, age-adjusted NCD mortality in the US residents aged 25 to 64 years and associations between mortality and the 4 sets of county-level factors. Results:A total of 6?794?434 deaths due to NCD were recorded during the study period (50.58% women; 16.49% aged 65 years or older). Mortality decreased by 4.30 (95% CI, -4.54 to -4.08) deaths per 100?000 person-years annually from 1999 to 2010 (P?<?.001) and decreased annually at a rate of 0.90 (95% CI, -1.13 to -0.73) deaths per 100?000 person-years annually from 2010 to 2017 (P?<?.001). Mortality in the county with the highest mortality was 10.40 times as high as that in the county with the lowest mortality (615.40 vs 59.20 per 100?000 population) in 2017. Geographic inequality was decomposed by between-state and within-state differences, and within-state differences accounted for most inequality (57.10% in 2017). County-level factors were associated with 71.83% variation in NCD mortality. Association with intercounty mortality was 19.51% for demographic features, 23.34% for socioeconomic composition, 16.40% for health care environment, and 40.75% for health-status characteristics. Conclusions and Relevance:Given the stagnated trend of decline and increasing variations in NCD premature mortality, these findings suggest that the WHO 25?×?25 target appears to be unattainable, which may be related to broad failure by United Nations members to follow through on commitments of reducing socioeconomic inequalities. The increasing inequalities in mortality are alarming and warrant expanded multisectoral efforts to ameliorate socioeconomic disparities.
Project description:ObjectiveTo determine which county-level social, economic, demographic, epidemiologic and access to care factors are associated with Latino/non-Latino White disparities in prevalence of diagnosed HIV infection.Methods and findingsWe used 2016 county-level prevalence rates of diagnosed HIV infection rates for Latinos and non-Latino Whites obtained from the National HIV Surveillance System and factors obtained from multiple publicly available datasets. We used mixed effects Poisson modeling of observed HIV prevalence at the county-level to identify county-level factors that explained homogeneous effects across race/ethnicity and differential effects for Latinos and NL-Whites. Overall, the median Latinos disparity in HIV prevalence is 2.4; 94% of the counties have higher rates for Latinos than non-Latinos, and one-quarter of the counties' disparities exceeded 10. Of the 41 county-level factors examined, 24 showed significant effect modification when examined individually. In multi-variable modeling, 11 county-level factors were found that significantly affected disparities. Factors that increased disparity with higher, compared to lower values included proportion of HIV diagnoses due to injection drug use, percent Latino living in poverty, percent not English proficient, and percent Puerto Rican. Latino disparities increased with decreasing percent severe housing, drug overdose mortality rate, percent rural, female prevalence rate, social association rate, percent change in Latino population, and Latino to NL-White proportion of the population. These factors while significant had minimal effects on diminishing disparity, but did substantially reduce the variance in disparity rates.ConclusionsLarge differences in HIV prevalence rates persist across almost all counties even after controlling for county-level factors. Counties that are more rural, have fewer Latinos, or have lower NL-White prevalence rates tend to have higher disparities. There is also higher disparity when community risk is low.