Dataset Information

Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

After dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D), recovery of sufficient kidney function to discontinue dialysis is an important clinical and patient-oriented outcome. Predicting the probability of recovery in individual patients is a common dilemma.

Methods

This cohort study examined all adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who experienced AKI-D between January 2009 and September 2015 and had predicted inpatient mortality of <20%. Candidate predictors included demographic characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory values, and medication use. We used logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) approaches to develop and cross-validate prediction models for recovery.

Results

Among 2214 patients with AKI-D, mean age was 67.1 years, 40.8% were women, and 54.0% were white; 40.9% of patients recovered. Patients who recovered were younger, had higher baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and preadmission hemoglobin levels, and were less likely to have prior heart failure or chronic liver disease. Stepwise logistic regression applied to bootstrapped samples identified baseline eGFR, preadmission hemoglobin level, chronic liver disease, and age as the predictors most commonly associated with coming off dialysis within 90 days. Our final logistic regression model including these predictors had a correlation coefficient between observed and predicted probabilities of 0.97, with a c-index of 0.64. An alternate CART approach did not outperform the logistic regression model (c-index 0.61).

Conclusion

We developed and cross-validated a parsimonious prediction model for recovery after AKI-D with excellent calibration using routinely available clinical data. However, the model's modest discrimination limits its clinical utility. Further research is needed to develop better prediction tools.

SUBMITTER: Lee BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6451155 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury.

Lee Benjamin J BJ Hsu Chi-Yuan CY Parikh Rishi R McCulloch Charles E CE Tan Thida C TC Liu Kathleen D KD Hsu Raymond K RK Pravoverov Leonid L Zheng Sijie S Go Alan S AS

Kidney international reports 20190128 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>After dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D), recovery of sufficient kidney function to discontinue dialysis is an important clinical and patient-oriented outcome. Predicting the probability of recovery in individual patients is a common dilemma.<h4>Methods</h4>This cohort study examined all adult members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who experienced AKI-D between January 2009 and September 2015 and had predicted inpatient mortality of <20%. Candidate pred ...[more]

PMID: 30993232

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) is associated with high mortality. Information about its epidemiology is nonetheless sparse in some countries. The objective of this study was to assess its epidemiology and prognosis in metropolitan France. METHODS:Using the French hospital discharge database, the study focused on adults hospitalized in metropolitan France between 2009 and 2014 and diagnosed with AKI-D according to the codes of the French common classification of medical procedures. Crude and standardized incidence rates (SIR) by gender and age were calculated. We explored the changes in patients' characteristics, modalities of renal replacement therapy (RRT), in-hospital care, and mortality, along with their determinants. Trends over time in the SIR for AKI-D, its principal diagnoses, and comorbidities were analyzed with joinpoint models. RESULTS:Between 2009 and 2014, the AKI-D SIR increased from 475 (95% CI, 468 to 482) to 512 per million population (95% CI, 505 to 519). AKI-D was twice as high in men as women. Median age was 68 years. Over the study period, the AKI-D SIR steadily increased in all age groups, particularly in the elderly. The most common comorbidities were cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (64.8%), pulmonary disease (42.2%), CKD (33.8%), and diabetes (26.0%); all of these except CKD increased significantly over time. In 2009, heart failure (17.2%), sepsis (17.0%), AKI (13.0%), digestive diseases (10.7%), and shock (6.6%) were the most frequent principal diagnoses, with a significant increase in heart failure and digestive diseases. The proportion of patients with at least one ICU stay and continuous RRT increased from 80.3% to 83.9% and from 56.9% to 61.8% (p<0.001), respectively. In-hospital mortality was high but stable (47%) and higher in patients with an ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS:This is the first exhaustive study in metropolitan France of the SIR for AKI-D. It shows this SIR has increased significantly over 6 years, together with ICU care and continuous RRT. In-hospital mortality is high but stable.

Project description:ObjectivePrompt assessment of perioperative complications is critical for the comprehensive care of surgical patients. Acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) is associated with high mortality, yet little is known about how long-term outcomes of patients have evolved. The association of AKI-D with postsurgical outcomes has not been well studied.MethodsWe investigated patients from the National Health Insurance Research Database and validated by the multicenter Clinical Trial Consortium for Renal Diseases cohort. All patients with AKI-D 18 years or older undergoing four major surgeries (cardiothoracic, esophagus, intestine, and liver) were retrospectively investigated (N=106,573). Patient demographics, surgery type, comorbidities before admission, and postsurgical outcomes, including the in-hospital, 30-day, and long-term mortality together with dialysis dependence were collected.ResultsAKI-D is the top risk factor for 30-day and long-term mortality after major surgery. Of 1,664 individuals with AKI-D and 6,656 matched controls, AKI-D during the hospital stay was associated with in-hospital (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=3.04, 95% CI 2.79-3.31), 30-day (aHR=3.65, 95% CI 3.37-3.94), and long-term (aHR=3.22, 95% CI 3.01-3.44) mortality. Patients undergoing cardiothoracic surgery (CTS) showed less in-hospital (aHR=0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.97), 30-day (aHR=0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.89), and long-term (aHR=0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.90) mortality compared with non-CTS patients with AKI-D. CTS patients had a high risk of 30-day dialysis dependence (subhazard ratio [sHR]=1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.38), but the risk of long-term dialysis dependence was similar (sHR=1.38, 95% CI 0.96-2.00) after AKI-D by taking mortality as a competing risk. Non-CTS patients had more comorbidities of sepsis, azotemia, hypoalbuminemia, and metabolic acidosis compared with CTS patients.ConclusionAKI exhibits paramount effects on postsurgical outcomes that extend well beyond discharge from the hospital. The goal of the perioperative assessment should include the reassurance of enhancing renal function recovery among different surgeries, and optimized follow-up is warranted in attenuating the complications after postsurgical AKI has occurred.

Dataset Information

Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury.

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