Dataset Information

Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.

ABSTRACT: A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1-14% (3-31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.

SUBMITTER: Rojas M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6452695 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.

Rojas Maisa M Lambert Fabrice F Ramirez-Villegas Julian J Challinor Andrew J AJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20190311 14

A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the grow ...[more]

PMID: 30858318

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Dataset Information

Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.

Publications

Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.

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