More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hansen BB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6453938 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics.
Hansen Brage B BB Gamelon Marlène M Albon Steve D SD Lee Aline M AM Stien Audun A Irvine R Justin RJ Sæther Bernt-Erik BE Loe Leif E LE Ropstad Erik E Veiberg Vebjørn V Grøtan Vidar V
Nature communications 20190408 1
Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic popul ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.
| S-EPMC4928808 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is increasing evidence that local rainfall extremes can increase with warming at a higher rate than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The exact mechanisms behind this super-CC scaling phenomenon are still unsolved. Recent studies highlight invigorated local dynamics as a contributor to enhanced precipitation rates with warming. Here, cold pools play an important role in the process of organization and deepening of convective clouds. Another known effect of cold pools is the amplification of low-level moisture variability. Yet, how these processes respond to climatic warming and how they relate to enhanced precipitation rates remains largely unanswered. Unlike other studies which use rather simple approaches mimicking climate change, we present a much more comprehensive set of experiments using a high-resolution large eddy simulation (LES) model. We use an idealized but realistically forced case setup, representative for conditions with extreme summer precipitation in midlatitudes. Based on that, we examine how a warmer atmosphere under the assumption of constant and varying relative humidity, lapse rate changes and enhanced large-scale dynamics influence precipitation rates, cold pool dynamics, and the low-level moisture field. Warmer conditions generally lead to larger and more intense events, accompanied by enhanced cold pool dynamics and a concurring moisture accumulation in confined regions. The latter are known as preferred locations for new convective events. Our results show that cold pool dynamics play an increasingly important role in shaping the response of local precipitation extremes to global warming, providing a potential mechanism for super-CC behavior as subject for future research.
| S-EPMC9285889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
| S-EPMC4739554 | biostudies-other
Project description:Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.
| S-EPMC7190627 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The increasing prevalence of warmer trends and climate extremes exacerbate the population's exposure to urban settlements. This work investigated population exposure changes to mean and extreme climate events in different Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Pakistan and associated mechanisms (1979-2020). Spatiotemporal trends in mean and extreme temperatures revealed significant warming mainly over northern, northeastern, and southern AEZs. In contrast, mean-to-extreme precipitation changes showed non-uniform patterns with a significant increase in the northeast AEZs. Population exposure to mean (extreme) temperature and precipitation events increased two-fold during 2000-2020. The AEZs in urban settlements (i.e., Indus Delta, Northern Irrigated Plain, and Barani/Rainfall) show a maximum exposure to extreme temperatures of about 70-100 × 106 (person-days) in the reference period (1979-1999), which increases to 140-200 × 106 person-days in the recent period (2000-2020). In addition, the highest exposure to extreme precipitation days also increases to 40-200 × 106 person-days during 2000-2020 than 1979-1999 (20-100 × 106) person-days. Relative changes in exposure are large (60%-90%) for the AEZs across northeast Pakistan, justifying the spatial population patterns over these zones. Overall, the observed changes in exposure are primarily attributed to the climate effect (50%) over most AEZs except Northern Irrigated Plain for R10 and R20 events, where the interaction effect takes the lead. The population exposure rapidly increased over major AEZs of Pakistan, which could be more vulnerable to extreme events due to rapid urbanization and population growth in the near future.
| S-EPMC10599709 | biostudies-literature
Project description:If we want to understand how climate change affects long-lived organisms, we must know how individuals allocate resources between current reproduction and survival. This trade-off is affected by expected environmental conditions, but the extent to which density independent (DI) and density dependent (DD) processes interact in shaping individual life histories is less clear. Female reindeer (or caribou: Rangifer tarandus) are a monotocous large herbivore with a circumpolar distribution. Individuals that experience unpredictable and potentially harsh winters typically adopt risk averse strategies where they allocate more resources to building own body reserves during summer and less to reproduction. Such a strategy implies that the females do not reproduce or that they produce fewer or smaller offspring. A risk averse strategy thus results in females with large autumn body reserves, which is known to increase their survival probabilities if the coming winter is harsh. In contrast, females experiencing predictable winters may adopt a more risk prone strategy in which they allocate more resources to reproduction as they do not need as many resources to buffer potentially adverse winter conditions. This study uses a seasonal state-dependent model showing that DD and DI processes interact to affect the evolution of reproductive strategies and population dynamics for reindeer. The model was run across a wide range of different winter climatic scenarios: One set of simulations where the average and variability of the environment was manipulated and one set where the frequency of good and poor winters increased. Both reproductive allocation and population dynamics of reindeer were affected by a combination of DI and DD processes even though they were confounded (harsh climates resulted in lowered density). Individual strategies responded, in line with a risk sensitive reproductive allocation, to climatic conditions and in a similar fashion across the two climatic manipulations.
| S-EPMC5551091 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events. Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak drought conditions in California. From 2008-2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However, body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.
| S-EPMC7042276 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event.
| S-EPMC5310600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly visible in the form of more severe wildfires, hurricanes, and flooding. As the science linking these disasters to climate change has grown more robust, it has led to pressure on politicians to acknowledge the connection. While an analysis of U.S. Congressional press releases reveals a slight increase in politicians' willingness to do so, many remain hesitant. Why? We hypothesize that climate change attribution can backfire, harming politicians' popularity and undermining their ability to adapt to the visible manifestations of climate change. We conduct an original survey experiment on a representative sample of American adults and show that when a politician links wildfires to climate change, Republicans perceive the official as less capable of addressing weather-related disasters. In addition, Republicans become less supportive of efforts to protect against similar disasters in the future. Our findings shed light on the potential trade-offs of conveying the link between climate change and its impacts.
| S-EPMC9462684 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Trends in extreme 100-y events of temperature and rainfall amounts in the continental United States are estimated, to see effects of climate change. This is a nontrivial statistical problem because climate change effects have to be extracted from "noisy" weather data within a limited time range. We use nonparametric Bayesian methods to estimate the trends of extreme events that have occurred between 1979 and 2019, based on data for temperature and rainfall. We focus on 100-y events for each month in [Formula: see text] geographical areas looking at hourly temperature and 5-d cumulative rainfall. Distribution tail models are constructed using extreme value theory (EVT) and data on 33-y events. This work shows it is possible to aggregate data from spatial points in diverse climate zones for a given month and fit an EVT model with the same parameters. This surprising result means there are enough extreme event data to see the trends in the 41-y record for each calendar month. The yearly trends of the risk of a 100-y high-temperature event show an average 2.1-fold increase over the last 41 y of data across all months, with a 2.6-fold increase for the months of July through October. The risk of high rainfall extremes increases in December and January 1.4-fold, but declines by 22% for the spring and summer months.
| S-EPMC9704732 | biostudies-literature