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Predicting progression to type 1 diabetes from ages 3 to 6 in islet autoantibody positive TEDDY children.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The capacity to precisely predict progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children over a short time span is an unmet need. We sought to develop a risk algorithm to predict progression in children with high-risk human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes followed in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. METHODS:Logistic regression and 4-fold cross-validation examined 38 candidate predictors of risk from clinical, immunologic, metabolic, and genetic data. TEDDY subjects with at least one persistent, confirmed autoantibody at age 3 were analyzed with progression to T1D by age 6 serving as the primary endpoint. The logistic regression prediction model was compared to two non-statistical predictors, multiple autoantibody status, and presence of insulinoma-associated-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A). RESULTS:A total of 363 subjects had at least one autoantibody at age 3. Twenty-one percent of subjects developed T1D by age 6. Logistic regression modeling identified 5 significant predictors - IA-2A status, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index Z-score, single-nucleotide polymorphism rs12708716_G, and a combination marker of autoantibody number plus fasting insulin level. The logistic model yielded a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80, higher than the two other predictors; however, the differences in AUC, sensitivity, and specificity were small across models. CONCLUSIONS:This study highlights the application of precision medicine techniques to predict progression to diabetes over a 3-year window in TEDDY subjects. This multifaceted model provides preliminary improvement in prediction over simpler prediction tools. Additional tools are needed to maximize the predictive value of these approaches.

SUBMITTER: Jacobsen LM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6456374 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting progression to type 1 diabetes from ages 3 to 6 in islet autoantibody positive TEDDY children.

Jacobsen Laura M LM Larsson Helena E HE Tamura Roy N RN Vehik Kendra K Clasen Joanna J Sosenko Jay J Hagopian William A WA She Jin-Xiong JX Steck Andrea K AK Rewers Marian M Simell Olli O Toppari Jorma J Veijola Riitta R Ziegler Anette G AG Krischer Jeffrey P JP Akolkar Beena B Haller Michael J MJ

Pediatric diabetes 20190129 3

<h4>Objective</h4>The capacity to precisely predict progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children over a short time span is an unmet need. We sought to develop a risk algorithm to predict progression in children with high-risk human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes followed in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.<h4>Methods</h4>Logistic regression and 4-fold cross-validation examined 38 candidate predictors of risk from clinical, immunologic, metabolic, an ...[more]

PMID: 30628751

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Project description:ObjectiveIncreased level of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with type 1 diabetes onset that in turn is preceded by one to several autoantibodies against the pancreatic islet beta cell autoantigens; insulin (IA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), islet antigen-2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8). The risk for type 1 diabetes diagnosis increases by autoantibody number. Biomarkers predicting the development of a second or a subsequent autoantibody and type 1 diabetes are needed to predict disease stages and improve secondary prevention trials. This study aimed to investigate whether HbA1c possibly predicts the progression from first to a subsequent autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children participating in the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.Research design and methodsA joint model was designed to assess the association of longitudinal HbA1c levels with the development of first (insulin or GAD autoantibodies) to a second, second to third, third to fourth autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children prospectively followed from birth until 15 years of age.ResultsIt was found that increased levels of HbA1c were associated with a higher risk of type 1 diabetes (HR 1.82, 95% CI [1.57-2.10], p < 0.001) regardless of first appearing autoantibody, autoantibody number or type. A decrease in HbA1c levels was associated with the development of IA-2A as a second autoantibody following GADA (HR 0.85, 95% CI [0.75, 0.97], p = 0.017) and a fourth autoantibody following GADA, IAA and ZnT8A (HR 0.90, 95% CI [0.82, 0.99], p = 0.036). HbA1c trajectory analyses showed a significant increase of HbA1c over time (p < 0.001) and that the increase is more rapid as the number of autoantibodies increased from one to three (p < 0.001).ConclusionIn conclusion, increased HbA1c is a reliable time predictive marker for type 1 diabetes onset. The increased rate of increase of HbA1c from first to third autoantibody and the decrease in HbA1c predicting the development of IA-2A are novel findings proving the link between HbA1c and the appearance of autoantibodies.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disorder that is characterised by destruction of pancreatic beta cells by autoreactive T lymphocytes. Although islet autoantibodies (AAb) are an indicator of disease progression, specific immune biomarkers that can be used as target molecules to halt development of type 1 diabetes have not been discovered. Soluble immune checkpoint molecules (sICM) play a pivotal role in counteracting excessive lymphocyte responses, but their role in type 1 diabetes is unexplored. In this longitudinal study, we measured sICM levels in AAb-positive (AAb+) children to identify molecules related to type 1 diabetes progression.MethodsWe measured the levels of 14 sICM in the sera of AAb+ children (n=57) compared to those with recent-onset type 1 diabetes (n=79) and healthy children (n=44), obtained from two cohorts. AAb+ children were followed up and divided based on their progression to type 1 diabetes (AAbP) or not (AAbNP) (if they lost islet autoimmunity and did not develop disease in subsequent years). sICM were also measured in the sample taken at the visit closest to disease onset in AAbP children.ResultsWe found that AAb+ children had a distinct sICM profile compared with healthy children and those with recent-onset type 1 diabetes. In addition, AAb+ children who progressed to type 1 diabetes (AAbP) had higher sICM concentrations than non-progressors (AAbNP). Further, sICM levels decreased in AAbP children close to disease onset. Application of Cox regression models highlighted that high concentrations of soluble programmed cell death protein 1 (sPD-1) are associated with type 1 diabetes progression (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.16, 2.51; p=0.007).Conclusions/interpretationThis study reveals an sICM profile that is dysregulated during the preclinical stage of type 1 diabetes, and identifies sPD-1 as a pathophysiologically-relevant molecule that is associated with disease progression, offering a potential target for early interventions in autoimmune diabetes.

Project description:ObjectiveThe first-appearing β-cell autoantibody has been shown to influence risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here, we assessed the risk of autoantibody spreading to the second-appearing autoantibody and further progression to clinical disease in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.Research design and methodsEligible children with increased HLA-DR-DQ genetic risk for T1D were followed quarterly from age 3 months up to 15 years for development of a single first-appearing autoantibody (GAD antibody [GADA], insulin autoantibody [IAA], or insulinoma antigen-2 autoantibody [IA-2A]) and subsequent development of a single second-appearing autoantibody and progression to T1D. Autoantibody positivity was defined as positivity for a specific autoantibody at two consecutive visits confirmed in two laboratories. Zinc transporter 8 autoantibody (ZnT8A) was measured in children who developed another autoantibody.ResultsThere were 608 children who developed a single first-appearing autoantibody (IAA, n = 282, or GADA, n = 326) with a median follow-up of 12.5 years from birth. The risk of a second-appearing autoantibody was independent of GADA versus IAA as a first-appearing autoantibody (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% CI 0.88-1.42; P = 0.36). Second-appearing GADA, IAA, IA-2A, or ZnT8A conferred an increased risk of T1D compared with children who remained positive for a single autoantibody, e.g., IAA or GADA second (adjusted HR 6.44; 95% CI 3.78-10.98), IA-2A second (adjusted HR 16.33; 95% CI 9.10-29.29; P < 0.0001), or ZnT8A second (adjusted HR 5.35; 95% CI 2.61-10.95; P < 0.0001). In children who developed a distinct second autoantibody, IA-2A (adjusted HR 3.08; 95% CI 2.04-4.65; P < 0.0001) conferred a greater risk of progression to T1D as compared with GADA or IAA. Additionally, both a younger initial age at seroconversion and shorter time to the development of the second-appearing autoantibody increased the risk for T1D.ConclusionsThe hierarchical order of distinct autoantibody spreading was independent of the first-appearing autoantibody type and was age-dependent and augmented the risk of progression to T1D.

Dataset Information

Predicting progression to type 1 diabetes from ages 3 to 6 in islet autoantibody positive TEDDY children.

Publications

Predicting progression to type 1 diabetes from ages 3 to 6 in islet autoantibody positive TEDDY children.

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