Prediction models for the risk of gestational diabetes: a systematic review.
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SUBMITTER: Lamain-de Ruiter M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6457144 | biostudies-literature | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Prediction models for the risk of gestational diabetes: a systematic review.
Lamain-de Ruiter Marije M Kwee Anneke A Naaktgeboren Christiana A CA Franx Arie A Moons Karel G M KGM Koster Maria P H MPH
Diagnostic and prognostic research 20170208
<h4>Background</h4>Numerous prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been developed, but their methodological quality is unknown. The objective is to systematically review all studies describing first-trimester prediction models for GDM and to assess their methodological quality.<h4>Methods</h4>MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until December 2014. Key words for GDM, first trimester of pregnancy, and prediction modeling studies were combined. Prediction models for GDM perfor ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionPrediction models for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia have been developed with data and assumptions from developed countries. Their suitability and application for low resource settings have not been tested. This review aimed to identify and assess the methodological quality of prediction models for gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia with reference to their application in low resource settings.MethodsUsing combinations of keywords for gestational hypertension, preeclampsia and prediction models seven databases were searched to identify prediction models developed with maternal data obtained before 20 weeks of pregnancy and including at least three predictors (Prospero registration CRD 42017078786). Prediction model characteristics and performance measures were extracted using the CHARMS, STROBE and TRIPOD checklists. The National Institute of Health quality assessment tools for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies were used for study quality appraisal.ResultsWe retrieved 8,309 articles out of which 40 articles were eligible for review. Seventy-seven percent of all the prediction models combined biomarkers with maternal clinical characteristics. Biomarkers used as predictors in most models were pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF). Only five studies were conducted in a low-and middle income country.ConclusionsMost of the studies evaluated did not completely follow the CHARMS, TRIPOD and STROBE guidelines in prediction model development and reporting. Adherence to these guidelines will improve prediction modelling studies and subsequent application of prediction models in clinical practice. Prediction models using maternal characteristics, with good discrimination and calibration, should be externally validated for use in low and middle income countries where biomarker assays are not routinely available.
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Project description:Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in Europe and the United States. Survival is strongly related to stage at diagnosis and population-based screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Stratifying the population by risk offers the potential to improve the efficiency of screening. In this systematic review we searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for primary research studies reporting or validating models to predict future risk of primary colorectal cancer for asymptomatic individuals. A total of 12,808 papers were identified from the literature search and nine through citation searching. Fifty-two risk models were included. Where reported (n = 37), half the models had acceptable-to-good discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC >0.7) in the derivation sample. Calibration was less commonly assessed (n = 21), but overall acceptable. In external validation studies, 10 models showed acceptable discrimination (AUROC 0.71-0.78). These include two with only three variables (age, gender, and BMI; age, gender, and family history of colorectal cancer). A small number of prediction models developed from case-control studies of genetic biomarkers also show some promise but require further external validation using population-based samples. Further research should focus on the feasibility and impact of incorporating such models into stratified screening programmes.
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Project description:ContextEarly detection of kidney cancer improves survival; however, low prevalence means that population-wide screening may be inefficient. Stratification of the population into risk categories could allow for the introduction of a screening programme tailored to individuals.ObjectiveThis review will identify and compare published models that predict the risk of developing kidney cancer in the general population.Evidence acquisitionA search identified primary research reporting or validating models predicting the risk of kidney cancer in Medline and EMBASE. After screening identified studies for inclusion, we extracted data onto a standardised form. The risk models were classified using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines and evaluated using the PROBAST assessment tool.Evidence synthesisThe search identified 15 281 articles. Sixty-two satisfied the inclusion criteria; performance measures were provided for 11 models. Some models predicted the risk of prevalent undiagnosed disease and others future incident disease. Six of the models had been validated, two using external populations. The most commonly included risk factors were age, smoking status, and body mass index. Most of the models had acceptable-to-good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating curve >0.7) in development and validation. Many models also had high specificity; however, several had low sensitivity. The highest performance was seen for the models using only biomarkers to detect kidney cancer; however, these were developed and validated in small case-control studies.ConclusionsWe identified a small number of risk models that could be used to stratify the population according to the risk of kidney cancer. Most exhibit reasonable discrimination, but a few have been validated externally in population-based studies.Patient summaryIn this review, we looked at mathematical models predicting the likelihood of an individual developing kidney cancer. We found several suitable models, using a range of risk factors (such as age and smoking) to predict the risk for individuals. Most of the models identified require further testing in the general population to confirm their usefulness.
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Project description:ObjectivesTo look at the available literature on validated prediction models for contrast induced nephropathy and describe their characteristics.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesMedline, Embase, and CINAHL (cumulative index to nursing and allied health literature) databases.Review methodsDatabases searched from inception to 2015, and the retrieved reference lists hand searched. Dual reviews were conducted to identify studies published in the English language of prediction models tested with patients that included derivation and validation cohorts. Data were extracted on baseline patient characteristics, procedural characteristics, modelling methods, metrics of model performance, risk of bias, and clinical usefulness. Eligible studies evaluated characteristics of predictive models that identified patients at risk of contrast induced nephropathy among adults undergoing a diagnostic or interventional procedure using conventional radiocontrast media (media used for computed tomography or angiography, and not gadolinium based contrast).Results16 studies were identified, describing 12 prediction models. Substantial interstudy heterogeneity was identified, as a result of different clinical settings, cointerventions, and the timing of creatinine measurement to define contrast induced nephropathy. Ten models were validated internally and six were validated externally. Discrimination varied in studies that were validated internally (C statistic 0.61-0.95) and externally (0.57-0.86). Only one study presented reclassification indices. The majority of higher performing models included measures of pre-existing chronic kidney disease, age, diabetes, heart failure or impaired ejection fraction, and hypotension or shock. No prediction model evaluated its effect on clinical decision making or patient outcomes.ConclusionsMost predictive models for contrast induced nephropathy in clinical use have modest ability, and are only relevant to patients receiving contrast for coronary angiography. Further research is needed to develop models that can better inform patient centred decision making, as well as improve the use of prevention strategies for contrast induced nephropathy.
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Project description:We conducted a systematic review of studies examining risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes among women with previous gestational diabetes. Our search strategy yielded 14 articles that evaluated 9 categories of risk factors of type 2 diabetes in women with gestational diabetes: anthropometry, pregnancy-related factors, postpartum factors, parity, family history of type 2 diabetes, maternal lifestyle factors, sociodemographics, oral contraceptive use, and physiologic factors. The studies provided evidence that the risk of type 2 diabetes was significantly higher in women having increased anthropometric characteristics with relative measures of association ranging from 0.8 to 8.7 and women who used insulin during pregnancy with relative measures of association ranging between 2.8 and 4.7. A later gestational age at diagnosis of gestational diabetes, >24 weeks gestation on average, was associated with a reduction in risk of development of type 2 diabetes with relative measures of association ranging between 0.35 and 0.99. We concluded that there is substantial evidence for 3 risk factors associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes in women having gestational diabetes.
| S-EPMC6393925 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGestational diabetes (GDM) is increasingly common and has significant implications during pregnancy and for the long-term health of the mother and offspring. However, it is a heterogeneous condition with inter-related factors including ethnicity, body mass index and gestational weight gain significantly modifying the absolute risk of complications at an individual level. Predicting the risk of pregnancy complications for an individual woman with GDM presents a useful adjunct to therapeutic decision-making and patient education. Diagnostic prediction models for GDM are prevalent. In contrast, prediction models for risk of complications in those with GDM are relatively novel. This study will systematically review published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM, describe their characteristics, compare performance and assess methodological quality and applicability.MethodsStudies will be identified by searching MEDLINE and Embase electronic databases. Title and abstract screening, full-text review and data extraction will be completed independently by two reviewers. The included studies will be systematically assessed for risk of bias and applicability using appropriate tools designed for prediction modelling studies. Extracted data will be tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparison of published prediction models. Quantitative data on predictive performance of these models will be synthesised with meta-analyses if appropriate.DiscussionThis review will identify and summarise all published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM. We will compare model performance across different settings and populations with meta-analysis if appropriate. This work will guide subsequent phases in the prognosis research framework: further model development, external validation and model updating, and impact assessment. The ultimate model will estimate the absolute risk of pregnancy complications for women with GDM and will be implemented into routine care as an evidence-based GDM complication risk prediction model. It is anticipated to offer value to women and their clinicians with individualised risk assessment and may assist decision-making. Ultimately, this systematic review is an important step towards a personalised risk-stratified model-of-care for GDM to allow preventative and therapeutic interventions for the maximal benefit to women and their offspring, whilst sparing expense and harm for those at low risk.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO registration number CRD42019115223.
| S-EPMC6844063 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA number of studies have been conducted to investigate the risk of metabolic syndrome (MS) after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), but the results are contradictory. Accordingly, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between these two conditions. The aim was to better understand the risks of MS with prior gestational diabetes.MethodsPubmed, ISI Web of Science, and Cochrane databases from September 1, 1979 to July 11, 2013 were searched to identify relevant studies. 17 studies containing 5832 women and 1149 MS events were included. We calculated the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) in analysis for each study using a random-effect or fixed-effect model. We also determined heterogeneity among these 17 articles and their publication bias.ResultsWomen with a history of gestational diabetes had a significantly higher risk of MS than those who had a normal pregnancy (OR, 3.96; 95% CI, 2.99 to 5.26), but had significant heterogeneity (I (2) = 52.6%). The effect remained robust (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 3.78-5.46) in the subgroup of Caucasians, but no association (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.64-2.56) was found in Asians. Heterogeneity was reduced (body mass index (BMI) matched group I (2) = 14.2%, BMI higher in the GDM group I (2) = 13.2%) in the subgroup of BMI. In addition, mothers with higher BMI in the GDM group had higher risk of MS than those in the BMI matched group (BMI higher in GDM group OR, 5.39; 95% CI, 4.47-6.50, BMI matched group OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.88-3.41).ConclusionsThis meta-analysis demonstrated increased risk of MS after gestational diabetes. Therefore, attention should be given to preventing or delaying the onset of MS in GDM mothers, particularly in Caucasian and obese mothers.
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Project description:BackgroundSeveral studies have examined associations between genetic variants and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). However, inferences from these studies were often hindered by limited statistical power and conflicting results. We aimed to systematically review and quantitatively summarize the association of commonly studied single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with GDM risk and to identify important gaps that remain for consideration in future studies.MethodsGenetic association studies of GDM published through 1 October 2012 were searched using the HuGE Navigator and PubMed databases. A SNP was included if the SNP-GDM associations were assessed in three or more independent studies. Two reviewers independently evaluated the eligibility for inclusion and extracted the data. The allele-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random effects models accounting for heterogeneity.ResultsOverall, 29 eligible articles capturing associations of 12 SNPs from 10 genes were included for the systematic review. The minor alleles of rs7903146 (TCF7L2), rs12255372 (TCF7L2), rs1799884 (-30G/A, GCK), rs5219 (E23K, KCNJ11), rs7754840 (CDKAL1), rs4402960 (IGF2BP2), rs10830963 (MTNR1B), rs1387153 (MTNR1B) and rs1801278 (Gly972Arg, IRS1) were significantly associated with a higher risk of GDM. Among them, genetic variants in TCF7L2 showed the strongest association with GDM risk, with ORs (95% CIs) of 1.44 (1.29-1.60, P < 0.001) per T allele of rs7903146 and 1.46 (1.15-1.84, P = 0.002) per T allele of rs12255372.ConclusionsIn this systematic review, we found significant associations of GDM risk with nine SNPs in seven genes, most of which have been related to the regulation of insulin secretion.
| S-EPMC3682671 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo provide an overview of the currently available risk prediction models (RPMs) for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes and hypertension, and to compare their effectiveness in proper recognition of patients at risk of developing these diseases.DesignUmbrella systematic review.Data sourcesPubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library.Eligibility criteriaSystematic reviews or meta-analysis examining and comparing performances of RPMs for CVDs, hypertension or diabetes in healthy adult (18-65 years old) population, published in English language.Data extraction and synthesisData were extracted according to the following parameters: number of studies included, intervention (RPMs applied/assessed), comparison, performance, validation and outcomes. A narrative synthesis was performed. Data were reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.Study selection3612 studies were identified. After title/abstract screening and removal of duplicate articles, 37 studies met the eligibility criteria. After reading the full text, 13 were deemed relevant for inclusion. Three further papers from the reference lists of these articles were then added.Study appraisalThe methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the AMSTAR tool.Risk of bias in individual studiesRisk of Bias evaluation was carried out using the ROBIS tool.ResultsSixteen studies met the inclusion criteria: six focused on diabetes, two on hypertension and eight on CVDs. Globally, prediction models for diabetes and hypertension showed no significant difference in effectiveness. Conversely, some promising differences among prediction tools were highlighted for CVDs. The Ankle-Brachial Index, in association with the Framingham tool, and QRISK scores provided some evidence of a certain superiority compared with Framingham alone.LimitationsDue to the significant heterogeneity of the studies, it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis. The electronic search was limited to studies in English and to three major international databases (MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus and Cochrane Library), with additional works derived from the reference list of other studies; grey literature with unpublished documents was not included in the search. Furthermore, no assessment of potential adverse effects of RPMs was carried out.ConclusionsConsistent evidence is available only for CVD prediction: the Framingham score, alone or in combination with the Ankle-Brachial Index, and the QRISK score can be confirmed as the gold standard. Further efforts should not be concentrated on creating new scores, but rather on performing external validation of the existing ones, in particular on high-risk groups. Benefits could be further improved by supplementing existing models with information on lifestyle, personal habits, family and employment history, social network relationships, income and education.Prospero registration numberCRD42018088012.
| S-EPMC6937066 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRisk prediction models incorporating single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could lead to individualized prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the added value of incorporating SNPs into models with only traditional risk factors is still not clear. Hence, our primary aim was to summarize literature on risk prediction models including genetic variants for CRC, while our secondary aim was to evaluate the improvement of discriminatory accuracy when adding SNPs to a prediction model with only traditional risk factors.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review on prediction models incorporating multiple SNPs for CRC risk prediction. We tested whether a significant trend in the increase of Area Under Curve (AUC) according to the number of SNPs could be observed, and estimated the correlation between AUC improvement and number of SNPs. We estimated pooled AUC improvement for SNP-enhanced models compared with non-SNP-enhanced models using random effects meta-analysis, and conducted meta-regression to investigate the association of specific factors with AUC improvement.ResultsWe included 33 studies, 78.79% using genetic risk scores to combine genetic data. We found no significant trend in AUC improvement according to the number of SNPs (p for trend = 0.774), and no correlation between the number of SNPs and AUC improvement (p = 0.695). Pooled AUC improvement was 0.040 (95% CI: 0.035, 0.045), and the number of cases in the study and the AUC of the starting model were inversely associated with AUC improvement obtained when adding SNPs to a prediction model. In addition, models constructed in Asian individuals achieved better AUC improvement with the incorporation of SNPs compared with those developed among individuals of European ancestry.ConclusionsThough not conclusive, our results provide insights on factors influencing discriminatory accuracy of SNP-enhanced models. Genetic variants might be useful to inform stratified CRC screening in the future, but further research is needed.
| S-EPMC8760647 | biostudies-literature