Dataset Information

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

ABSTRACT: Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

SUBMITTER: Sguotti C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6458326 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

Sguotti Camilla C Otto Saskia A SA Frelat Romain R Langbehn Tom J TJ Ryberg Marie Plambech MP Lindegren Martin M Durant Joël M JM Chr Stenseth Nils N Möllmann Christian C

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20190301 1898

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on ca ...[more]

PMID: 30862289

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Project description:BackgroundFisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood.Methodology/principal findingsWe used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.Conclusions/significanceOur analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment.

Project description:The effects of marine reserves on the life history and demography of the protected populations are well-established, typically increasing population density and body size. However, little is known about how marine reserves may alter the behavior of the populations that are the target of protection. In theory, marine reserves can relax selection on spatial behavioral phenotypes that were previously targeted by the fishery and also drive selection in favor of less mobile individuals. In this study, we used acoustic telemetry to monitor the individual spatial behavior of 566 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua Linnaeus, 1758) moving within a marine reserve and a control site in southern Norway, starting 1 year before the implementation of the marine reserve and lasting up to 9 years after. Following a before-after-control-impact approach, we investigated changes in (1) survival, (2) selection acting on behavioral traits, and (3) mean behavioral phenotypes, after the implementation of the marine reserve. We focused on three behavioral traits commonly used to describe the mobility of aquatic animals: home range size, depth position, and diel vertical migration range. Survival increased after reserve implementation, but contrary to our expectations, it subsequently decreased to preprotection levels after just 3 years. Further, we found no significance in selection patterns acting on any of the three behavioral traits after reserve implementation. Although some changes related to water column use (the tendency to occupy deeper waters) were observed in the marine reserve after 9 years, they cannot unequivocally be attributed to protection. Our results show that survival and behavioral responses to marine reserves in some cases may be more complex than previously anticipated and highlight the need for appropriately scaled management experiments and more integrated approaches to understand the effects of marine protected areas on harvested aquatic species.

Dataset Information

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

Publications

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery.

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