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The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

ABSTRACT: Anthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can spread between wild and livestock animals and humans. Transmission typically occurs indirectly via environmental exposure, with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as pastoralist economies. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modelled the geographical suitability of anthrax across India and its associated environmental features using a biogeographic application of machine learning. Both biotic and abiotic features contributed to risk across multiple scales of influence. The elephant-livestock interface was the dominant feature in delineating anthrax suitability. In addition, water-soil balance, soil chemistry and historical forest loss were also influential. These findings suggest that the elephant-livestock interface plays an important role in the cycling of anthrax in India. Livestock prevention efforts targeting this interface, particularly within anthropogenic ecotones, may yield successes in reducing ongoing transmission between animal hosts and subsequent zoonotic transmission to humans.

SUBMITTER: Walsh MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6458329 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

Walsh Michael G MG Mor Siobhan M SM Hossain Shah S

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20190301 1898

Anthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can spread between wild and livestock animals and humans. Transmission typically occurs indirectly via environmental exposure, with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as pastoralist economies. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modelled the geographical suitability of anthrax across India and ...[more]

PMID: 30862290

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although anthrax is endemic in Lesotho, limited information is available on the patterns of the disease among livestock animals. This study investigated temporal patterns of anthrax outbreaks and cases among livestock animals in Lesotho. METHODS:Secondary data of anthrax outbreaks reported to the Department of Livestock Services between January 2005 and December 2016 was used for this study. Proportions of anthrax outbreaks and cases, and their corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated and compared across year, season, month and region using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. The autoregression model was used to evaluate annual trends of anthrax outbreaks and cases. RESULTS:A total of 38 outbreaks were reported in the Lowlands districts of Lesotho. District was significantly (p<0.0001) associated with outbreaks and cases, with the highest proportions of outbreaks (52.6%) and cases (70.2%) reported in Maseru. Significantly (p = 0.0004) higher proportions of anthrax outbreaks (78.9%) and cases (95.1%) were reported in the rainy-hot season compared to the dry-cold season. Five hundred and twenty-six (n = 526) anthrax cases were reported with significantly (p<0.0001) higher proportion of cases (70.3%) in cattle compared to other species. Higher proportion of anthrax cases (35.9%) were reported in 2008 and during the months of February (30.8%) and April (30.2%). There was no significant annual trend in anthrax outbreaks (r = 0.0282; p = 0.6213) and cases (r = 0.0873; p = 0.3512) over the study period. CONCLUSION:The burden of anthrax in Lesotho is significantly higher in cattle. Anthrax outbreaks occur only in the lowland districts and follow a seasonal pattern. Therefore, more effort should be targeted at curbing the disease in cattle and the lowlands districts. Furthermore, there should be heightened monitoring of cases in the rainy season to ensure that resultant carcasses are disposed of appropriately to minimise future outbreaks.

Project description:The transmission of vector-borne diseases is governed by complex factors including pathogen characteristics, vector-host interactions, and environmental conditions. Temperature is a major driver for many vector-borne diseases including Bluetongue viral (BTV) disease, a midge-borne febrile disease of ruminants, notably livestock, whose etiology ranges from mild or asymptomatic to rapidly fatal, thus threatening animal agriculture and the economy of affected countries. Using modeling tools, we seek to predict where the transmission can occur based on suitable temperatures for BTV. We fit thermal performance curves to temperature-sensitive midge life-history traits, using a Bayesian approach. We incorporate these curves into S(T), a transmission suitability metric derived from the disease's basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text] This suitability metric encompasses all components that are known to be temperature-dependent. We use trait responses for two species of key midge vectors, Culicoides sonorensis and Culicoides variipennis present in North America. Our results show that outbreaks of BTV are more likely between 15[Formula: see text] C and [Formula: see text], with predicted peak transmission risk at 26 [Formula: see text] C. The greatest uncertainty in S(T) is associated with the following: the uncertainty in mortality and fecundity of midges near optimal temperature for transmission; midges' probability of becoming infectious post-infection at the lower edge of the thermal range; and the biting rate together with vector competence at the higher edge of the thermal range. We compare three model formulations and show that incorporating thermal curves into all three leads to similar BTV risk predictions. To demonstrate the utility of this modeling approach, we created global suitability maps indicating the areas at high and long-term risk of BTV transmission, to assess risk and to anticipate potential locations of disease establishment.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Although anthrax occurs globally, the burden of the disease remains particularly high in Africa. Furthermore, the disease anthrax has significant public health and economic implications. However, sufficient attention has not been given to the geographic distribution of anthrax outbreaks and cases in Lesotho. Therefore, this study investigates the spatial patterns of anthrax outbreaks and cases among livestock in Lesotho from 2005 to 2016. METHODS:A cross-sectional study design was adopted to realise the objectives of this study using retrospective data of anthrax outbreaks and cases recorded by the Department of Livestock Services (DLS) between 2005 and 2016. Anthrax outbreaks were geo-coded at village level and aggregated at district level. Proportions and 95% CI of anthrax outbreaks and cases by village and district were calculated. Cartographic maps displaying the distribution of anthrax outbreaks and cases at village and district level were constructed. RESULTS:A total of 38 outbreaks were reported over the study period, and they were clustered in the Lowlands districts of Lesotho. Most outbreaks (52.6%, 20/38) in livestock were reported in the Maseru district. The Leribe district reported the lowest proportions of outbreaks (5.3%, 2/38) and cases (0.6%, 3/526). At the village level, 18% (7/38) of outbreaks were in Maseru Urban, followed by Ratau (16%, 6/38) and Mofoka (13%, 5/38). The Maseru district reported the highest (1.3%, 369/29,070) proportion of cases followed by Mafeteng (0.9%, 73/8530). The village with the most cases was Kolo (10.5%, 21/200), followed by Thaba-Chitja (7.7%, 33/430). CONCLUSION:Anthrax outbreaks and cases exclusively occur in the Lowlands districts of Lesotho, with villages such as Mahobong, Pitseng, Kolo, and Thaba-Chitja having a higher risk of anthrax disease. Findings of the present study have serious public health implications in light of the fact that between 2003 and 2008 Lesotho's main abattoir was closed; hence, most of the meat in Lesotho was imported and/or sourced from the informal slaughter facilities. Much larger studies are needed to further investigate factors contributing to spatial disparities in anthrax outbreaks and cases observed in this study. Findings of the present study can be used to guide the formulation of a policy on prevention and control of anthrax in Lesotho.

Dataset Information

The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

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The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

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