Dataset Information

Modeling and predicting osteoarthritis progression: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The goal of this study was to model the longitudinal progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and build a prognostic tool that uses data collected in 1 year to predict disease progression over 8 years. DESIGN:To model OA progression, we used a mixed-effects mixture model and 8-year data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)-specifically, joint space width measurements from X-rays and pain scores from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) questionnaire. We included 1243 subjects who at enrollment were classified as being at high risk of developing OA based on age, body mass index (BMI), and medical and occupational histories. After clustering subjects based on radiographic and pain progression, we used clinical variables collected within the first year to build least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO) regression models for predicting the probabilities of belonging to each cluster. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) represent predictive performance on held-out data. RESULTS:Based on joint space narrowing, subjects clustered as progressing or non-progressing. Based on pain scores, they clustered as stable, improving, or worsening. Radiographic progression could be predicted with high accuracy (AUC = .86) using data from two visits spanning 1 year, whereas pain progression could be predicted with high accuracy (AUC = .95) using data from a single visit. Joint space narrowing and pain progression were not associated. CONCLUSION:Statistical models for characterizing and predicting OA progression promise to improve clinical trial design and OA prevention efforts in the future.

SUBMITTER: Halilaj E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6469859 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling and predicting osteoarthritis progression: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

Halilaj E E Le Y Y Hicks J L JL Hastie T J TJ Delp S L SL

Osteoarthritis and cartilage 20180818 12

<h4>Objective</h4>The goal of this study was to model the longitudinal progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and build a prognostic tool that uses data collected in 1 year to predict disease progression over 8 years.<h4>Design</h4>To model OA progression, we used a mixed-effects mixture model and 8-year data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)-specifically, joint space width measurements from X-rays and pain scores from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (W ...[more]

PMID: 30130590

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease with a substantial public health burden. Quantitative assessments of periarticular bone may be a biomarker capable of monitoring early disease progression. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether measures of periarticular bone associate with longitudinal structural progression. METHODS:We conducted a 12-18 months longitudinal study using the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Participants received knee dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), trabecular magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, and x-rays. Knee DXAs generated proximal tibial medial:lateral periarticular bone mineral density (paBMD) measures. Proximal tibial trabecular MR images were assessed for trabecular morphometry: apparent bone volume fraction (BVF), trabecular number, thickness, and spacing. Weight-bearing x-rays were assessed for medial tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN). Chi-squared analyses assessed whether periarticular bone measures were predictive of worsening medial tibiofemoral JSN, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS:In all, 444 participants, mean age 64.2 ± 9.2 years, BMI 29.5 ± 4.6kg/m2, and 52% male at baseline. Medial JSN (radiographic progression) occurred in 40 participants (9%). Higher baseline medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, trabecular number and thickness, and lower baseline and decreased trabecular spacing were all associated with more progression of JSN in the medial compartment. From lowest to highest baseline medial:lateral paBMD quartile groups, 2%, 5%, 11%, and 18% had medial JSN progression, respectively, between the 36- and 48-month visits, p-values = 0.001 and 0.002 unadjusted and adjusted. The rate of change in medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, and spacing were associated with more medial JSN. For rate of medial:lateral paBMD change from lowest to highest quartile, the proportion of each group that experienced medial JSN progression were 5%, 5%, 11%, and 18%, with an unadjusted and adjusted p-value of 0.005. CONCLUSION:Baseline and most rates of periarticular bone change associate with knee OA structural progression, highlighting the close relationship between subchondral bone and JSN. Future studies should focus on developing these measures as predictive and pathophysiological biomarkers, and evaluating their deployment in clinical trials testing bone-targeted therapeutics.

Project description:BackgroundWe conducted an exploratory analysis of osteoarthritis progression among medication users in the Osteoarthritis Initiative to identify interventions or pathways that may be associated with disease modification and therefore of interest for future clinical trials.MethodsWe used participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative with annual medication inventory data between the baseline and 36-month follow-up visit (n = 2938). Consistent medication users were defined for each medication classification as a participant reporting at all four annual visits that they were regularly using an oral prescription medication at the time of the visit. The exploratory analysis focused on medication classes with 40 or more users. The primary outcome measures were medial tibiofemoral joint space width change and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) knee pain score change (12-36-month visits). Within each knee, we explored eight comparisons between users and matched or unmatched nonusers (defined two ways). An effect size of each comparison was calculated. Medication classes had potential signals if (a) both knees had less progression among users compared with nonusers, or (b) there was less progression based on structure and symptoms in one knee.ResultsWe screened 28 medication classes. Six medication classes had signals for fewer structural changes and better knee pain changes: alpha-adrenergic blockers, antilipemic (excluding statins and fibric acid), anticoagulants, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, antihistamines, and antineoplastic agents. Four medication classes had signals for structural changes alone: anti-estrogen (median effect size = 0.28; range = -0.41-0.64), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (median effect size = 0.13; range = -0.08-0.28), beta-adrenergic blockers (median effect size = 0.09; range = 0.01-0.30), and thyroid agents (median effect size = 0.04; range = -0.05-0.14). Thiazide diuretics had evidence for symptom modification (median effect size = -0.12; range = -0.24-0.04).ConclusionsUsers of neurovascular, antilipemic, or hormonal interventions may have less disease progression compared with nonusers.

Project description:To evaluate the influence of the mtDNA haplogroups on knee osteoarthritis progression in Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants through longitudinal data from radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).Four-year knee osteoarthritis progression was analyzed as increase in Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grade, in addition to increase in OARSI atlas grade for joint space narrowing (JSN), osteophytes and subchondral sclerosis in the tibia medial compartment of 891 Caucasian individuals from the progression subcohort. The influence of the haplogroups on the rate of structural progression was also assessed as the four-year change in minimum joint space width (mJSW in millimetres) in both knees of (n?=?216) patients with baseline unilateral medial-tibiofemoral JSN. Quantitative cartilage measures from longitudinal MRI data were those related to cartilage thickness and volume with a 24 month follow-up period (n?=?381).During the four-year follow-up period, knee OA patients with the haplogroup T showed the lowest increase in KL grade (Hazard Risk [HR]?=?0.499; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.261-0.819; p<0.05) as well as the lowest cumulative probability of progression for JSN (HR?=?0.547; 95% CI: 0.280-0.900; p<0.05), osteophytes (HR?=?0.573; 95% CI: 0.304-0.893; p<0.05) and subchondral sclerosis (HR?=?0.549; 95% CI: 0.295-0.884; p<0.05). They also showed the lowest decline in mJSW (standardized response means (SRM)?=?-0.39; p?=?0.037) in those knees without baseline medial JSN (no-JSN knees). Normalized cartilage volume loss was significantly lower in patients carrying the haplogroup T at medial tibia femoral (SRM?=?-0.33; p?=?0.023) and central medial femoral (SRM?=?-0.27; p?=?0.031) compartments. Cartilage thickness loss was significantly lower in carriers of haplogroup T at central medial tibia-femoral (SRM?=?-0.42; p?=?0.011), medial tibia femoral (SRM?=?-0.32; p?=?0.018), medial tibia anterior (SRM?=?+0.31; p?=?0.013) and central medial femoral (SRM?=?-0.19; p?=?0.013) compartments.Mitochondrial genome seems to play a role in the progression of knee osteoarthritis. mtDNA variation could improve identification of patients predisposed to faster or severe progression of the disease.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the predictive and concurrent validity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based cartilage thickness change between baseline (BL) and year-two (Y2) follow-up (predictive validity) and between Y2 and Y4 follow-up (concurrent validity) for symptomatic and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression during Y2?Y4. METHODS:777 knees from 777 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants (age: 61.3 ± 9.0 years, BMI: 30.1 ± 4.8 kg/m2) with Kellgren Lawrence (KL) grade 1-3 at Y2 (visit before progression interval) had cartilage thickness measurements from 3T MRI at BL, Y2 (n = 777), and Y4 (n = 708). Analysis of covariance and logistic regression were used to assess the association of pain progression (?9 WOMAC units [scale 0-100], n = 205/572 with/without progression) and radiographic progression (?0.7 mm minimum joint space width (mJSW) loss, n = 166/611 with/without progression) between Y2 and Y4 with preceding (BL?Y2) and concurrent (Y2?Y4) change in central medial femorotibial (cMFTC) compartment cartilage thickness. RESULTS:Symptomatic progression was associated with concurrent (Y2?Y4: -305 ± 470 ?m vs -155 ± 346 ?m, Odds ratios (OR) = 1.5 [1.2, 1.7]) but not with preceding cartilage thickness loss in cMFTC (-150 ± 276 ?m vs -151 ± 299 ?m, OR = 0.9 95% CI: [0.8, 1.1]). Radiographic progression, in contrast, was significantly associated with both concurrent (-542 ± 550 ?m vs -98 ± 255 ?m, OR = 3.4 [2.6, 4.3]) and preceding cMFTC thickness loss (-229 ± 355 ?m vs -130 ± 270 ?m, OR = 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]). CONCLUSIONS:These results extend previous reports that did not discern predictive vs concurrent associations of cartilage thickness loss with OA progression. The observed predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness loss for radiographic progression and observed concurrent validity for symptomatic progression provide an important step in qualifying cartilage thickness loss as a biomarker of knee OA progression. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFICATION:NCT00080171.

Dataset Information

Modeling and predicting osteoarthritis progression: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

Publications

Modeling and predicting osteoarthritis progression: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

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