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Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

ABSTRACT: A published study used a stochastic branching process to derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies (Glossina spp) as a function of adult and pupal mortality, and the probabilities that a female is inseminated by a fertile male. The original derivation was partially heuristic and provided no proofs for inductive results. We provide these proofs, together with a more compact way of reaching the same results. We also show that, while the published equations hold good for the case where tsetse produce male and female offspring in equal proportion, a different solution is required for the more general case where the probability (?) that an offspring is female lies anywhere in the interval (0, 1). We confirm previous results obtained for the special case where ? = 0.5 and show that extinction probability is at a minimum for ? > 0.5 by an amount that increases with increasing adult female mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that the extinction probability was affected most by changes in adult female mortality, followed by the rate of production of pupae. Because females only produce a single offspring approximately every 10 days, imposing a death rate of greater than about 3.5% per day will ensure the eradication of any tsetse population. These mortality levels can be achieved for some species using insecticide-treated targets or cattle-providing thereby a simple, effective and cost-effective method of controlling and eradicating tsetse, and also human and animal trypanosomiasis. Our results are of further interest in the modern situation where increases in temperature are seeing the real possibility that tsetse will go extinct in some areas, without the need for intervention, but have an increased chance of surviving in other areas where they were previously unsustainable due to low temperatures.

SUBMITTER: Kajunguri D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6474634 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

Kajunguri Damian D Are Elisha B EB Hargrove John W JW

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20190409 4

A published study used a stochastic branching process to derive equations for the mean and variance of the probability of, and time to, extinction in population of tsetse flies (Glossina spp) as a function of adult and pupal mortality, and the probabilities that a female is inseminated by a fertile male. The original derivation was partially heuristic and provided no proofs for inductive results. We provide these proofs, together with a more compact way of reaching the same results. We also show ...[more]

PMID: 30964873

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Project description:BackgroundTsetse control is considered an effective and sustainable tactic for the control of cyclically transmitted trypanosomosis in the absence of effective vaccines and inexpensive, effective drugs. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is currently used to eliminate tsetse fly populations in an area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) context in Senegal. For SIT, tsetse mass rearing is a major milestone that associated microbes can influence. Tsetse flies can be infected with microorganisms, including the primary and obligate Wigglesworthia glossinidia, the commensal Sodalis glossinidius, and Wolbachia pipientis. In addition, tsetse populations often carry a pathogenic DNA virus, the Glossina pallidipes salivary gland hypertrophy virus (GpSGHV) that hinders tsetse fertility and fecundity. Interactions between symbionts and pathogens might affect the performance of the insect host.MethodsIn the present study, we assessed associations of GpSGHV and tsetse endosymbionts under field conditions to decipher the possible bidirectional interactions in different Glossina species. We determined the co-infection pattern of GpSGHV and Wolbachia in natural tsetse populations. We further analyzed the interaction of both Wolbachia and GpSGHV infections with Sodalis and Wigglesworthia density using qPCR.ResultsThe results indicated that the co-infection of GpSGHV and Wolbachia was most prevalent in Glossina austeni and Glossina morsitans morsitans, with an explicit significant negative correlation between GpSGHV and Wigglesworthia density. GpSGHV infection levels > 103.31 seem to be absent when Wolbachia infection is present at high density (> 107.36), suggesting a potential protective role of Wolbachia against GpSGHV.ConclusionThe result indicates that Wolbachia infection might interact (with an undefined mechanism) antagonistically with SGHV infection protecting tsetse fly against GpSGHV, and the interactions between the tsetse host and its associated microbes are dynamic and likely species specific; significant differences may exist between laboratory and field conditions.

Project description:BackgroundIn African tsetse flies Glossina, spp. detection of bacterial symbionts such as Wolbachia is challenging since their prevalence and distribution are patchy, and natural symbiont titers can range at levels far below detection limit of standard molecular techniques. Reliable estimation of symbiont infection frequency, especially with regard to interrelations between symbionts and their potential impact on host biology, is of pivotal interest in the context of future applications for the control and eradication of Glossina-vectored African trypanosomosis. The presence or absence of symbionts is routinely screened with endpoint polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which has numerous advantages, but reaches its limits, when detecting infections at natural low titer. To not only determine presence of native tsetse symbionts but also to localize them to specific host tissues, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) can be applied. However, classic FISH assays may not detect low-titer infections due to limitations in sensitivity.ResultsWe have compared classic endpoint PCR with high-sensitivity blot-PCR. We demonstrate that the latter technique allows for clear detection of low-titer Wolbachia in the morsitans and palpalis groups while classic endpoint PCR does not. In order to localize Wolbachia in situ in high and low-titer Glossina species, we applied high-end Stellaris® rRNA-FISH. We show that with this high sensitivity method, even low amounts of Wolbachia can be traced in specific tissues. Furthermore, we highlight that more tissues and organs than previously recorded are infested with Wolbachia in subspecies of the morsitans and palpalis groups.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that overall symbiont infection frequencies as well as the presence in specific host tissues may be underestimated when using low-sensitivity methods. To better understand the complex interrelation of tsetse flies and their native symbionts plus the pathogenic trypanosomes, it is important to consider application of a broader range of high-sensitivity detection tools.

Project description:BackgroundIt has been suggested that attempts to eradicate populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.) using stationary targets might fail because smaller, less mobile individuals are unlikely to be killed by the targets. If true, tsetse caught in stationary traps should be larger than those from mobile baits, which require less mobility on the part of the flies.ResultsSampling tsetse in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe, we found that the number of tsetse caught from stationary traps, as a percent of total numbers from traps plus a mobile vehicle, was ~5% for male G. morsitans morsitans (mean wing length 5.830 mm; 95% CI: 5.800-5.859 mm) and ~10% for females (6.334 mm; 95% CI: 6.329-6.338 mm); for G. pallidipes the figures were ~50% for males (6.830 mm; 95% CI: 6.821-6.838 mm) and ~75% for females (7.303 mm, 95% CI: 7.302-7.305 mm). As expected, flies of the smaller species (and the smaller sex) were less likely to be captured using stationary, rather than mobile sampling devices. For flies of a given sex and species the situation was more complex. Multivariable analysis showed that, for females of both species, wing lengths changed with ovarian age and the month, year and method of capture. For G. pallidipes, there were statistically significant interactions between ovarian age and capture month, year and method. For G. m. morsitans, there was only a significant interaction between ovarian age and capture month. The effect of capture method was, however, small in absolute terms: for G. pallidipes and G. m. morsitans flies caught on the mobile vehicle had wings only 0.24 and 0.48% shorter, respectively, than flies caught in stationary traps. In summary, wing length in field samples of tsetse varies with ovarian age, capture month and year and, weakly, with capture method. Suggestions that a target-based operation against G. f. fuscipes in Kenya caused a shift towards a smaller, less mobile population of tsetse, unavailable to the targets, failed to account for factors other than capture method.ConclusionsThe results are consistent with the successful use of targets to eradicate populations of tsetse in Zimbabwe. Until further, more nuanced, studies are conducted, it is premature to conclude that targets alone could not, similarly, be used to eradicate G. f. fuscipes populations in Kenya.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Sleeping sickness, transmitted by G. p. palpalis, is known to be present in the Ivory Coast. G. p. palpalis has recently been reported to occur in several places within the town of Abidjan, including: (i) the Banco forest, (ii) the Abobo Adjamé University campus and (iii) the zoological park. Could these three places be treated sequentially, as separate tsetse populations, or should they be taken as one area comprising a single, panmictic population? METHODS:The amount of gene flow between these places provides strategic information for vector control. It was estimated by the use of both microsatellite DNA and morphometric markers. The idea was to assess the interest of the faster and much less expensive morphometric approach in providing relevant information about population structure. Thus, to detect possible lack of insect exchange between these neighbouring areas of Abidjan, we used both genetic (microsatellite DNA) and phenetic (geometric morphometrics) markers on the same specimens.Using these same markers, we also compared these samples with specimens from a more distant area of south Ivory Coast, the region of Aniassué (186 km north from Abidjan). RESULTS:Neither genetic nor phenetic markers detected significant differentiation between the three Abidjan G. p. palpalis samples. Thus, the null hypothesis of a single panmictic population within the city of Abidjan could not be rejected, suggesting the control strategy should not consider them separately. The markers were also in agreement when comparing G. p. palpalis from Abidjan with those of Aniassué, showing significant divergence between the two sites. CONCLUSIONS:Both markers suggested that a successful control of tsetse in Abidjan would require the three Abidjan sites to be considered together, either by deploying control measures simultaneously in all three sites, or by a continuous progression of interventions following for instance the "rolling carpet" principle. To compare the geometry of wing venation of tsetse flies is a cheap and fast technique. Agreement with the microsatellite approach highlights its potential for rapid assessment of population structure.

Project description:BackgroundThis study focused on the savannah tsetse species Glossina swynnertoni and G. morsitans centralis, both efficient vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis in, respectively, East and Central Africa. The aim was to develop long-lasting, practical and cost-effective visually attractive devices that induce the strongest landing responses in these two species for use as insecticide-impregnated tools in population suppression.Methods and findingsTrials were conducted in different seasons and years in Tanzania (G. swynnertoni) and in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, G. m. centralis) to measure the performance of traps (pyramidal and epsilon) and targets of different sizes, shapes and colours, with and without chemical baits, at different population densities and under different environmental conditions. Adhesive film was used to catch flies landing on devices at the remote locations to compare tsetse-landing efficiencies. Landing rates by G. m. centralis in both Angola and the DRC were highest on blue-black 1 m2 oblong and 0.5 m2 square and oblong targets but were not significantly different from landings on the pyramidal trap. Landings by G. swynnertoni on 0.5 m2 blue-black oblong targets were likewise not significantly lower than on equivalent 1 m2 square targets. The length of target horizontal edge was closely correlated with landing rate. Blue-black 0.5 m2 targets performed better than equivalents in all-blue for both G. swynnertoni and G. m. centralis, although not consistently. Baiting with chemicals increased the proportion of G. m. centralis entering pyramidal traps.ConclusionsThis study confirms earlier findings on G. swynnertoni that smaller visual targets, down to 0.5 m2, would be as efficient as using 1 m2 targets for population management of this species. This is also the case for G. m. centralis. An insecticide-impregnated pyramidal trap would also constitute an effective control device for G. m. centralis.

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Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

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Improved estimates for extinction probabilities and times to extinction for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).

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