Dataset Information

Estimation of 1-Year Changes in Medicaid Expenditures Associated With Reducing Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by 1.

ABSTRACT: Importance:Reducing smoking is associated with a reduction in health care costs, including in the short run. Medicaid recipients smoke at higher rates than the general population, which suggests that investments to reduce smoking in this population would reduce short-run Medicaid costs. Objective:To estimate the short-run (1-year) change in health care expenditure associated with a 1% decrease in absolute smoking prevalence in all US states. Design, Setting, and Participants:Economic evaluation based on state Medicaid expenditures and the elasticity between changes in smoking prevalence and health care costs. Data sources were the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System, 2017 National Health Interview Survey, and Kaiser Family Foundation Total Medicaid Spending for fiscal year 2017. Analysis was conducted in 2018. Participants were all people receiving Medicaid in all US states and the District of Columbia. Exposures:Cigarette smoking. Main Outcomes and Measures:Short-run (1-year) change in health care costs. Results:Reducing absolute smoking prevalence by 1% in each state was associated with substantial Medicaid savings the following year, totaling $2.6 billion (in 2017 dollars). Each state saved a median (interquartile range) of $25 million ($8 million to $35 million). Conclusions and Relevance:Effective efforts to reducing smoking could be a cost-effective way to reduce Medicaid costs in the short run.

SUBMITTER: Glantz SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6481435 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of 1-Year Changes in Medicaid Expenditures Associated With Reducing Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by 1.

Glantz Stanton A SA

JAMA network open 20190405 4

<h4>Importance</h4>Reducing smoking is associated with a reduction in health care costs, including in the short run. Medicaid recipients smoke at higher rates than the general population, which suggests that investments to reduce smoking in this population would reduce short-run Medicaid costs.<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the short-run (1-year) change in health care expenditure associated with a 1% decrease in absolute smoking prevalence in all US states.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h ...[more]

PMID: 30977860

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Project description:BackgroundCigarette smoking is a leading risk factor for morbidity and premature mortality in the United States, yet information about smoking prevalence and trends is not routinely available below the state level, impeding local-level action.MethodsWe used data on 4.7 million adults age 18 and older from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1996 to 2012. We derived cigarette smoking status from self-reported data in the BRFSS and applied validated small area estimation methods to generate estimates of current total cigarette smoking prevalence and current daily cigarette smoking prevalence for 3,127 counties and county equivalents annually from 1996 to 2012. We applied a novel method to correct for bias resulting from the exclusion of the wireless-only population in the BRFSS prior to 2011.ResultsTotal cigarette smoking prevalence varies dramatically between counties, even within states, ranging from 9.9% to 41.5% for males and from 5.8% to 40.8% for females in 2012. Counties in the South, particularly in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, as well as those with large Native American populations, have the highest rates of total cigarette smoking, while counties in Utah and other Western states have the lowest. Overall, total cigarette smoking prevalence declined between 1996 and 2012 with a median decline across counties of 0.9% per year for males and 0.6% per year for females, and rates of decline for males and females in some counties exceeded 3% per year. Statistically significant declines were concentrated in a relatively small number of counties, however, and more counties saw statistically significant declines in male cigarette smoking prevalence (39.8% of counties) than in female cigarette smoking prevalence (16.2%). Rates of decline varied by income level: counties in the top quintile in terms of income experienced noticeably faster declines than those in the bottom quintile.ConclusionsCounty-level estimates of cigarette smoking prevalence provide a unique opportunity to assess where prevalence remains high and where progress has been slow. These estimates provide the data needed to better develop and implement strategies at a local and at a state level to further reduce the burden imposed by cigarette smoking.

Project description:The prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has rapidly increased among young people, while conventional cigarette use has decreased in this age group. However, some evidence suggests that e-cigarette use is likely to induce conventional cigarette smoking. The present study explored the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use in the peer network and in the general population as a potential mechanism by which e-cigarette use affects adolescents' overall smoking behaviours. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based model in which young agents repeatedly choose to smoke conventional cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes, or to remain non-smokers. The choice is based on the agent's evaluation of the utility derived from smoking and attitude towards smoking ('openness'), which is influenced by smoking prevalence in the agent's peer network and in the broader society. We also assumed a 'crossover' effect between the different types of smoking. The model was calibrated with United States National Youth Tobacco Survey data to reflect real-world numbers. We further simulated the prevalence of different types of smoking under counterfactual scenarios with different levels of openness and crossover effects. The models developed successfully reproduced actual prevalence trends in different types of smoking from 2011 to 2014. Openness to smoking is associated with a dramatic increase in e-cigarette smoking and especially in dual smoking, which cancels out the decline in sole conventional smoking. Larger crossover effects are associated with a higher prevalence of conventional smoking. The simulation results indicate that the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use may influence young people to initiate or continue conventional cigarette smoking. Assessing the impact of e-cigarettes in the general population as a 'healthier' alternative to conventional smoking may require carefully monitoring trends in young people's smoking behaviours.

Dataset Information

Estimation of 1-Year Changes in Medicaid Expenditures Associated With Reducing Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by 1.

Publications

Estimation of 1-Year Changes in Medicaid Expenditures Associated With Reducing Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by 1.

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