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Development and Validation of a Multivariable Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model That Includes Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening Results: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the National Lung Screening Trial.

ABSTRACT: Importance:Low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening is most effective when applied to high-risk individuals. Objectives:To develop and validate a risk prediction model that incorporates low-dose computed tomography screening results. Design, Setting, and Participants:A logistic regression risk model was developed in National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) Lung Screening Study (LSS) data and was validated in NLST American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) data. The NLST was a randomized clinical trial that recruited participants between August 2002 and April 2004, with follow-up to December 31, 2009. This secondary analysis of data from the NLST took place between August 10, 2013, and November 1, 2018. Included were LSS (n?=?14?576) and ACRIN (n?=?7653) participants who had 3 screens, adequate follow-up, and complete predictor information. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident lung cancers occurring 1 to 4 years after the third screen (202 LSS and 96 ACRIN). Predictors included scores from the validated PLCOm2012 risk model and Lung CT Screening Reporting & Data System (Lung-RADS) screening results. Results:Overall, the mean (SD) age of 22?229 participants was 61.3 (5.0) years, 59.3% were male, and 90.9% were of non-Hispanic white race/ethnicity. During follow-up, 298 lung cancers were diagnosed in 22?229 individuals (1.3%). Eight result combinations were pooled into 4 groups based on similar associations. Adjusted for PLCOm2012 risks, compared with participants with 3 negative screens, participants with 1 positive screen and last negative had an odds ratio (OR) of 1.93 (95% CI, 1.34-2.76), and participants with 2 positive screens with last negative or 2 negative screens with last positive had an OR of 2.66 (95% CI, 1.60-4.43); when 2 or more screens were positive with last positive, the OR was 8.97 (95% CI, 5.76-13.97). In ACRIN validation data, the model that included PLCOm2012 scores and screening results (PLCO2012results) demonstrated significantly greater discrimination (area under the curve, 0.761; 95% CI, 0.716-0.799) than when screening results were excluded (PLCOm2012) (area under the curve, 0.687; 95% CI, 0.645-0.728) (P?

SUBMITTER: Tammemagi MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6484623 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of a Multivariable Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model That Includes Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening Results: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the National Lung Screening Trial.

Tammemägi Martin C MC Ten Haaf Kevin K Toumazis Iakovos I Kong Chung Yin CY Han Summer S SS Jeon Jihyoun J Commins John J Riley Thomas T Meza Rafael R

JAMA network open 20190301 3

<h4>Importance</h4>Low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening is most effective when applied to high-risk individuals.<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and validate a risk prediction model that incorporates low-dose computed tomography screening results.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>A logistic regression risk model was developed in National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) Lung Screening Study (LSS) data and was validated in NLST American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) d ...[more]

PMID: 30821827

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Project description:ImportanceScreening for lung cancer has the potential to reduce mortality, but in addition to detecting aggressive tumors, screening will also detect indolent tumors that otherwise may not cause clinical symptoms. These overdiagnosis cases represent an important potential harm of screening because they incur additional cost, anxiety, and morbidity associated with cancer treatment.ObjectiveTo estimate overdiagnosis in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST).Design, setting, and participantsWe used data from the NLST, a randomized trial comparing screening using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) vs chest radiography (CXR) among 53 452 persons at high risk for lung cancer observed for 6.4 years, to estimate the excess number of lung cancers in the LDCT arm of the NLST compared with the CXR arm.Main outcomes and measuresWe calculated 2 measures of overdiagnosis: the probability that a lung cancer detected by screening with LDCT is an overdiagnosis (PS), defined as the excess lung cancers detected by LDCT divided by all lung cancers detected by screening in the LDCT arm; and the number of cases that were considered overdiagnosis relative to the number of persons needed to screen to prevent 1 death from lung cancer.ResultsDuring follow-up, 1089 lung cancers were reported in the LDCT arm and 969 in the CXR arm of the NLST. The probability is 18.5% (95% CI, 5.4%-30.6%) that any lung cancer detected by screening with LDCT was an overdiagnosis, 22.5% (95% CI, 9.7%-34.3%) that a non-small cell lung cancer detected by LDCT was an overdiagnosis, and 78.9% (95% CI, 62.2%-93.5%) that a bronchioalveolar lung cancer detected by LDCT was an overdiagnosis. The number of cases of overdiagnosis found among the 320 participants who would need to be screened in the NLST to prevent 1 death from lung cancer was 1.38.Conclusions and relevanceMore than 18% of all lung cancers detected by LDCT in the NLST seem to be indolent, and overdiagnosis should be considered when describing the risks of LDCT screening for lung cancer.

Project description:BackgroundIn China, over 50% of lung cancer cases occur in nonsmokers. Thus, identifying high-risk individuals for targeted lung cancer screening is crucial. Beyond age and smoking, determining other risk factors for lung cancer in the Asian population has become a focal point of research. Using 30,000 participants in the prospectively enrolled cohort at China's National Cancer Center (NCC) over the past 14 years, we categorized participants by risk, with an emphasis on nonsmoking females.Materials and methodsBetween November 2005 and December 2019, 31,431 individuals voluntarily underwent low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) scans for lung cancer screening at the NCC. We recorded details like smoking history, exposure to hazards, and family history of malignant tumors. Using the 2019 NCCN criteria, participants were categorized into high-, moderate-, and low-risk groups. Additionally, we separated non-high-risk groups into female never smokers (aged over 40) exposed to second-hand smoke (SHS) and others. Any positive results from initial scans were monitored per the I-ELCAP protocol (2006), and suspected malignancies were addressed through collaborative decisions between patients and physicians. We analyzed and compared the detection rates of positive results, confirmed lung cancers, and cancer stages across risk, age, and gender groups.ResultsOut of 31,431 participants (55.9% male, 44.1% female), 3695 (11.8%) showed positive baseline LDCT scans with 197 (0.6%; 106 females, 91 males) confirmed as lung cancer cases pathologically. Malignancy rate by age was 0.1% among those aged under 40 years, 0.4% among those aged 40-49 years, 0.8% among those aged 50-59 years, and 1.2% among those aged 60 years and older. From the 25,763 participants (56.9% male, 43.1% female) who completed questionnaires, 1877 (7.3%) were categorized as high risk, 6500 (25.2%) as moderate risk, and 17,386 (67.5%) as low risk. Of the 23,886 in the non-high-risk category, 8041 (33.7%) were females over 40 years old exposed to SHS. The high-risk group showed the highest lung cancer detection rate at 1.4%. However, females exposed to SHS had a notably higher detection rate than the rest of the non-high-risk group (1.1% vs. 0.5%; p < 0.0001). In this cohort, 84.8% of the detected lung cancers were at an early stage.ConclusionsIn our study, using LDCT for lung cancer screening proved significant for high-risk individuals. For non-high-risk populations, LDCT screening could be considered for nonsmoking women with exposure to SHS.

Project description:ImportanceDespite the recommendations of lung cancer screening guidelines and the evidence supporting the effectiveness of population-based lung screening, a common barrier to effective lung cancer screening is that the participation rates of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening among individuals with the highest risk are not large. There are limited data from clinical practice regarding whether opportunistic LDCT screening is associated with reduced lung-cancer mortality.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether opportunistic LDCT screening is associated with improved prognosis among adults with lung cancer in mainland China.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included patients diagnosed with lung cancer at Weihai Municipal Hospital Healthcare Group, Weihai City, China, from 2016 to 2021. Data were analyzed from January 2022 to February 2023.ExposuresData collected included demographic indicators, tumor characteristics, comorbidities, blood indexes, and treatment information. Patients were classified into screened and nonscreened groups on the basis of whether or not their lung cancer diagnosis occurred through opportunistic screening.Main outcomes and measuresFollow-up outcome indicators included lung cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching (PSM) was adopted to account for potential imbalanced factors between groups. The associations between LDCT screening and outcomes were analyzed using Cox regression models based on the matched data. Propensity score regression adjustment and inverse probability treatment weighting were used for sensitivity analysis.ResultsA total of 5234 patients (mean [SD] baseline age, 61.8 [9.8] years; 2518 [48.1%] female) with complete opportunistic screening information were included in the analytical sample, with 2251 patients (42.91%) receiving their lung cancer diagnosis through opportunistic screening. After 1:1 PSM, 2788 patients (1394 in each group) were finally included. The baseline characteristics of the matched patients were balanced between groups. Opportunistic screening with LDCT was associated with a 49% lower risk of lung cancer death (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.42-0.62) and 46% lower risk of all-cause death (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.45-0.64).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of patients with lung cancer, opportunistic lung cancer screening with LDCT was associated with lower lung cancer mortality and all-cause mortality. These findings suggest that opportunistic screening is an important supplement to population screening to improve prognosis of adults with lung cancer.

Project description:ImportanceLung cancer screening has been widely implemented in Europe and the US. However, there is little evidence on participation and diagnostic yields in population-based lung cancer screening in China.ObjectiveTo assess the participation rate and detection rate of lung cancer in a population-based screening program and the factors associated with participation.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China from October 2013 to October 2019, with follow-up until March 10, 2020. The program is conducted at centers in 8 cities in Henan Province, China. Eligible participants were aged 40 to 74 and were evaluated for a high risk for lung cancer using an established risk score system.Main outcomes and measuresOverall and group-specific participation rates by common factors, such as age, sex, and educational level, were calculated. Differences in participation rates between those groups were compared. The diagnostic yield of both screening and nonscreening groups was calculated.ResultsThe study recruited 282 377 eligible participants and included 55 428 with high risk for lung cancer; the mean (SD) age was 55.3 (8.1) years, and 34 966 participants (63.1%) were men. A total of 22 260 participants underwent LDCT (participation rate, 40.16%; 95% CI, 39.82%-40.50%). The multivariable logistic regression model showed that female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.52-1.78), former smoking (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.13-1.41), lack of physical activity (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14-1.24), family history of lung cancer (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.66-1.79), and 7 other factors were associated with increased participation of LDCT screening. Overall, at 6-year follow-up, 78 participants in the screening group (0.35%; 95% CI, 0.29%-0.42%) and 125 in the nonscreening group (0.38%; 95% CI, 0.33%-0.44%) had lung cancer detected, which resulted in an odds ratio of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.70-1.23; P = .61).Conclusions and relevanceThe low participations rate in the program studied suggests that an improved strategy is needed. These findings may provide useful information for designing effective population-based lung cancer screening strategies in the future.

Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model That Includes Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening Results: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the National Lung Screening Trial.

Publications

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model That Includes Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening Results: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the National Lung Screening Trial.

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