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Outcome prediction models in AQP4-IgG positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

ABSTRACT: Pathogenic antibodies targeting the aquaporin-4 water channel on astrocytes are associated with relapsing inflammatory neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders. The clinical phenotype is characterized by recurrent episodes of optic neuritis, longitudinally extensive transverse myelitis, area postrema attacks and less common brainstem and cerebral events. Patients often develop major residual disability from these attacks, so early diagnosis and initiation of attackpreventing medications is important. Accurate prediction of relapse would assist physicians in counselling patients, planning treatment and designing clinical trials. We used a large multicentre dataset of 441 patients from the UK, USA, Japan and Martinique who collectively experienced 1976 attacks, and applied sophisticated mathematical modelling to predict likelihood of relapse and disability at different time points. We found that Japanese patients had a lower risk of subsequent attacks except for brainstem and cerebral events, with an overall relative relapse risk of 0.681 (P = 0.001) compared to Caucasians and African patients, who had a higher likelihood of cerebral attacks, with a relative relapse risk of 3.309 (P = 0.009) compared to Caucasians. Female patients had a higher chance of relapse than male patients (P = 0.009), and patients with younger age of onset were more likely to have optic neuritis relapses (P < 0.001). Immunosuppressant drugs reduced and multiple sclerosis disease-modifying agents increased the likelihood of relapse (P < 0.001). Patients with optic neuritis at onset were more likely to develop blindness (P < 0.001), and those with older age of onset were more likely to develop ambulatory disability. Only 25% of long-term disability was related to initial onset attack, indicating the importance of early attack prevention. With respect to selection of patients for clinical trial design, there would be no gain in power by selecting recent onset patients and only a small gain by selecting patients with recent high disease activity. We provide risk estimates of relapse and disability for patients diagnosed and treated with immunosuppressive treatments over the subsequent 2, 3, 5 and 10 years according to type of attack at onset or the first 2-year course, ethnicity, sex and onset age. This study supports significant effects of onset age, onset phenotype and ethnicity on neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders outcomes. Our results suggest that powering clinical treatment trials based upon relapse activity in the preceding 2 years may offer little benefit in the way of attack risk yet severely hamper clinical trial success.

SUBMITTER: Palace J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6487334 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Outcome prediction models in AQP4-IgG positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

Palace Jacqueline J Lin Dan-Yu DY Zeng Donglin D Majed Masoud M Elsone Liene L Hamid Shahd S Messina Silvia S Misu Tatsuro T Sagen Jessica J Whittam Daniel D Takai Yoshiki Y Leite Maria Isabel MI Weinshenker Brian B Cabre Philippe P Jacob Anu A Nakashima Ichiro I Fujihara Kazuo K Pittock Sean J SJ

Brain : a journal of neurology 20190501 5

Pathogenic antibodies targeting the aquaporin-4 water channel on astrocytes are associated with relapsing inflammatory neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders. The clinical phenotype is characterized by recurrent episodes of optic neuritis, longitudinally extensive transverse myelitis, area postrema attacks and less common brainstem and cerebral events. Patients often develop major residual disability from these attacks, so early diagnosis and initiation of attackpreventing medications is import ...[more]

PMID: 30938427

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Project description:BackgroundMyelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody (MOG) immunoglobulin G (IgG)-associated disease (MOGAD) has clinical and pathophysiological features that are similar to but distinct from those of aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-IgG)-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (AQP4-NMOSD). MOG-IgG and AQP4-IgG, mostly of the IgG1 subtype, can both activate the complement system. Therefore, we investigated whether the levels of serum complement components, regulators, and activation products differ between MOGAD and AQP4-NMOSD, and if complement analytes can be utilized to differentiate between these diseases.MethodsThe sera of patients with MOGAD (from during an attack and remission; N=19 and N=9, respectively) and AQP4-NMOSD (N=35 and N=17), and healthy controls (N=38) were analyzed for C1q-binding circulating immune complex (CIC-C1q), C1 inhibitor (C1-INH), factor H (FH), C3, iC3b, and soluble terminal complement complex (sC5b-9).ResultsIn attack samples, the levels of C1-INH, FH, and iC3b were higher in the MOGAD group than in the NMOSD group (all, p<0.001), while the level of sC5b-9 was increased only in the NMOSD group. In MOGAD, there were no differences in the concentrations of complement analytes based on disease status. However, within AQP4-NMOSD, remission samples indicated a higher C1-INH level than attack samples (p=0.003). Notably, AQP4-NMOSD patients on medications during attack showed lower levels of iC3b (p<0.001) and higher levels of C3 (p=0.008), C1-INH (p=0.004), and sC5b-9 (p<0.001) compared to those not on medication. Among patients not on medication at the time of attack sampling, serum MOG-IgG cell-based assay (CBA) score had a positive correlation with iC3b and C1-INH levels (rho=0.764 and p=0.010, and rho=0.629 and p=0.049, respectively), and AQP4-IgG CBA score had a positive correlation with C1-INH level (rho=0.836, p=0.003).ConclusionsThis study indicates a higher prominence of complement pathway activation and subsequent C3 degradation in MOGAD compared to AQP4-NMOSD. On the other hand, the production of terminal complement complexes (TCC) was found to be more substantial in AQP4-NMOSD than in MOGAD. These findings suggest a strong regulation of the complement system, implying its potential involvement in the pathogenesis of MOGAD through mechanisms that extend beyond TCC formation.

Project description:BackgroundRecognizing the predictors of disease relapses in patients with anti-aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-ab)-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is essential for individualized treatment strategy. We aimed to identify the factors that predicted relapses among patients with AQP4-ab-positive NMOSD, develop outcome prediction models, and validate them in a multicenter validation cohort.MethodsBetween January 2015 and December 2020, 820 patients with NMOSD were registered at Huashan Hospital. We retrospectively reviewed their medical records, and included 358 AQP4-ab-positive patients with 1135 treatment episodes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to explore the predictors of relapse, severe visual or motor disability during follow-up. A model predicting the 1- and 2-year relapse-free probability was developed and validated in an external validation cohort of 92 patients with 213 treatment episodes.ResultsLower serum AQP4-ab titer (< 1:100), higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at onset (≥ 2.5), and use of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) at the first attack predicted an overall lower annualized relapse rate. Older age (> 48 years), optic neuritis at onset, and higher onset EDSS score (≥ 2.5) significantly increased the risk for blindness, while IVMP at the first attack and maintenance therapy reduced the risk for blindness. Myelitis at onset increased the possibility of motor disability (EDSS ≥ 6.0), severe motor disability or death (EDSS ≥ 8.0), while maintenance therapy reduced these possibilities. Anderson and Gill model identified that the risk factors predicting recurrent relapses under certain treatment status were female gender, high AQP4-ab titer (≥ 1:100), previous attack under same therapy, lower EDSS score at treatment initiation (< 2.5), and no maintenance therapy or oral prednisone lasting less than 6 months. A nomogram using the above factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The concordance indexes in the primary and validation cohort were 0.66 and 0.65, respectively.ConclusionThis study reports the demographic, clinical and therapeutic predictors of relapse, and severe visual or motor disability in NMOSD. Early identification of patients at risk of unfavorable outcomes is of paramount importance to inform treatment decisions.

Project description:Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSDs) are inflammatory diseases with a high risk of recurrence and progressive disability, and it is crucial to find sensitive and reliable biomarkers for prognosis and the early prediction of relapse. Highly active NMOSD is defined as two or more clinical relapses within a 12-month period. In this study, we analyzed independent risk factors among patients with aquaporin-4 (AQP4)-IgG positive highly active NMOSD. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the data of 94 AQP4-IgG positive patients with highly active NMOSD and 105 AQP4-IgG positive controls with non-highly active NMOSD. In order to rule out possible effects of previous treatments (such as glucocorticoids, immunoglobulin, and immunosuppressants), we focused on the first-attack NMOSD patients admitted to our hospital. Clinical data, including the age of onset, gender, comorbidities, and serum analysis and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis results, were collected, after which logistic regression models were used to determine the associations between the clinical factors and relapse outcomes. The prevalence of connective tissue disease and the proportion of antinuclear antibody (ANA)-positivity were higher in the highly active NMOSD group than in the control group. The leukocyte counts, homocysteine (Hcy) levels, CSF leukocyte counts, protein concentrations, IgG indexes, and 24h IgG synthesis rates were also higher in the highly active NMOSD group. The results of multivariate analysis indicated that connective tissue disease comorbidity (OR = 5.953, 95% CI: 1.221-29.034, P = 0.027), Hcy levels (OR = 1.063, 95% CI: 1.003-1.126, P = 0.04), and 24h IgG synthesis rate (OR = 1.038, 95% CI: 1.003-1.075, P = 0.034) may be independent risk factors for AQP4-IgG positive highly active NMOSD relapse after adjusting for various variables. Comorbidity of connective tissue disease, Hcy levels, and 24h IgG synthesis rate may be independent risk factors for AQP4-IgG positive highly active NMOSD.

Project description:ImportanceImmunoglobulin G autoantibodies for aquaporin 4 (AQP4-IgG) serve as diagnostic biomarkers for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD), and the most sensitive and specific laboratory tests for their detection are cell-based assays (CBAs). Nevertheless, the limited availability of special instruments limits the widespread use of CBAs in routine laboratories.ObjectiveTo validate an enzyme immunodot assay for simple and rapid detection of AQP4-IgG.Design, setting, and participantsThis multicenter case-control study, conducted from May 2020 to February 2023, involved 4 medical centers (3 in China and 1 in Korea). The study included patients with AQP4-IgG-positive NMOSD, patients with other immune-related diseases, and healthy control individuals. Participants were excluded if they did not agree to participate or if their serum sample had turbidity.ExposuresSerum AQP4 antibodies measured with immunodot assay.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was performance of the immunodot assay compared with the gold standard CBA for detecting AQP4-IgG. To examine generalizability, cross-validation in Korea and at a second site in China, validation of patients with other immune-related diseases, and follow-up validation of the original cohort were performed.ResultsA total of 836 serum samples were collected; 400 were included in the diagnostic study and 436 in the validation sets. In a head-to-head diagnostic study involving 200 patients with NMOSD with AQP4-IgG (mean [SD] age, 43.1 [13.5] years; 188 [94%] female) and 200 healthy controls, use of an immunodot assay demonstrated antibody detection performance comparable to that of the gold standard (κ = 98.0%). The validation sets included 47 patients with NMOSD and 26 patients with other autoimmune diseases from Korea, 31 patients with NMOSD at a second site in China, 275 patients with other diseases, and 57 patients with NMOSD at follow-up. In the validation study, of 436 cases, 2 (<1%) were false positive and none were false negative. The CBA identified 332 AQP4-IgG-positive samples and 504 negative samples (200 [40%] in controls and 304 [60%] in patients with other diseases); 2 of the positive cases (<1%) were false negative and 4 of the negative cases (<1%) were false positive. The overall sensitivity of the immunodot assay was 99.4% (95% CI, 97.8%-99.9%), and the specificity was 99.2% (95% CI, 98.0%-99.8%).Conclusions and relevanceThis case-control study found that the immunodot assay was comparable to CBA for detecting AQP4-IgG. With its time- and cost-efficient characteristics, the immunodot assay may be a practical option for AQP4-IgG detection.

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Outcome prediction models in AQP4-IgG positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

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Outcome prediction models in AQP4-IgG positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

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