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Comparison of Measures to Predict Mortality and Length of Stay in Hospitalized Patients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Patient risk adjustment is critical for hospital benchmarking and allocation of healthcare resources. However, considerable heterogeneity exists among measures. OBJECTIVES:The performance of five measures was compared to predict mortality and length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized adults using claims data; these include three comorbidity composite scores (Charlson/Deyo age-comorbidity score, V W Elixhauser comorbidity score, and V W Elixhauser age-comorbidity score), 3 M risk of mortality (3 M ROM), and 3 M severity of illness (3 M SOI) subclasses. METHODS:Binary logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models were applied to a 2-year retrospective dataset (2013-2014) with 123,641 adult inpatient admissions from a large hospital system in New York City. RESULTS:All five measures demonstrated good to strong model fit for predicting in-hospital mortality, with C-statistics of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.74, 0.75]), 0.80 (95% CI [0.80, 0.81]), 0.81(95% CI [0.81, 0.82]), 0.94 (95% CI [0.93, 0.94]), and 0.90 (95% CI [0.90, 0.91]) for Charlson/Deyo age-comorbidity score, V W Elixhauser comorbidity score, V W Elixhauser age-comorbidity score, 3 M ROM, and 3 M SOI, respectively. The model fit statistics to predict hospital LOS measured by the likelihood ratio index were 0.3%, 1.2%, 1.1%, 6.2%, and 4.3%, respectively. DISCUSSION:The measures tested in this study can guide nurse managers in the assignment of nursing care and coordination of needed patient services and administrators to effectively and efficiently support optimal nursing care.

SUBMITTER: Liu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6488393 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May/Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of Measures to Predict Mortality and Length of Stay in Hospitalized Patients.

Liu Jianfang J Larson Elaine E Hessels Amanda A Cohen Bevin B Zachariah Philip P Caplan David D Shang Jingjing J

Nursing research 20190501 3

<h4>Background</h4>Patient risk adjustment is critical for hospital benchmarking and allocation of healthcare resources. However, considerable heterogeneity exists among measures.<h4>Objectives</h4>The performance of five measures was compared to predict mortality and length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized adults using claims data; these include three comorbidity composite scores (Charlson/Deyo age-comorbidity score, V W Elixhauser comorbidity score, and V W Elixhauser age-comorbidity score), 3 M ...[more]

PMID: 30882561

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Project description:ImportanceIn 2012, hospital reimbursement in Switzerland changed from a fee-for-service per diem system to a diagnosis-related group (SwissDRG) system. Whether this change in reimbursement is associated with harmful implications for quality of care and patient outcomes remains unclear.ObjectiveTo examine the association of the SwissDRG implementation with length of hospital stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission rates in the overall adult inpatient population and stratified by 5 individual diagnoses.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used administrative data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office to investigate medical hospitalizations in Switzerland from January 1, 2009, through December 31, 2015. All hospitalizations for adult medical inpatients were included in the main analysis. Patients who presented with 1 of the 5 common medical diagnoses were included in the subanalyses: community-acquired pneumonia, exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, acute myocardial infarction, acute heart failure, and pulmonary embolism. An interrupted time series model was used to determine changes in time trends for risk-adjusted LOS, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission after the implementation of SwissDRG in 2012. Analyses were performed from March 1, 2018, to June 30, 2018, and from November 1, 2018, to December 18, 2018.Main outcomes and measuresMonthly patient-level data for LOS, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission rates.ResultsThe sample included a total of 2 426 722 hospitalized adult patients. Of this total, 1 018 404 patients (41.9%; 531 226 [52.2%] male, median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of 69 [55-80] years) composed the before-SwissDRG period; 1 408 318 patients (58.0%; 730 228 [51.9%] male, median [IQR] age of 70 [56-81] years) composed the after-SwissDRG period. The overall LOS gradually decreased from unadjusted mean (SD) 8.0 (12.7) days in 2009 to 7.2 (17.3) days in 2015. This reduction in LOS, however, was not substantially greater with the implementation of SwissDRG in 2012 (risk-adjusted slope, -0.0166 days; 95% CI, -0.0223 to -0.0110 days), with an adjusted difference in slopes of 0.0000 days (95% CI, -0.0072 to 0.0072 days). Risk-adjusted all-cause in-hospital mortality declined from 4.9% in 2009 to 4.6% in 2015, with a substantially greater decline after implementation of SwissDRG (difference between monthly slopes before and after implementation, -0.0115%; 95% CI, -0.0190% to -0.0039%). In the same period, risk-adjusted 30-day readmission rates increased from 14.4% in 2009 to 15.0% in 2015, with a greater increase after SwissDRG implementation (change in monthly slope, 0.0339%; 95% CI, 0.0254%-0.0423%). Patients with acute myocardial infarction were found to have a substantially greater increase after SwissDRG implementation in 30-day readmission rates (adjusted difference in slopes, 0.1144%; 95% CI, 0.0617%-0.1671%).Conclusions and relevanceAmong medical hospitalizations in Switzerland, SwissDRG implementation appeared to be associated with an increase in readmission rates and a decrease in in-hospital mortality but not with the gradual decrease in LOS observed in the historical control period.

Project description:ObjectiveDescriptions of the inpatient experience for patients hospitalized with systolic heart failure (HF) are limited and lack a cross-sectional representation of the US population. While length of stay (LOS) is a primary determinant of resource use and post-discharge events, few models exist for estimating LOS.Research design and methodsMarketScan(®) administrative claims data from 1/1/2005-6/30/2008 were used to select hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years with discharge diagnoses for both HF (primary diagnosis) and systolic HF (any diagnostic position) without prior HF hospitalization or undergoing transplantation.ResultsAmong 17,597 patients with systolic HF; 4109 had commercial; 2118 had Medicaid; and 11,370 had Medicare payer type. Medicaid patients had longer mean LOS (7.1 days) than commercial (6.3 days) or Medicare (6.7 days). In-hospital mortality was highest for patients with Medicaid (2.4%), followed by Medicare (1.3%) and commercial (0.6%). Commercial patients were more likely to receive inpatient procedures. Renal failure, pressure ulcer, malnutrition, a non-circulatory index admission DRG, receipt of a coronary artery bypass procedure or cardiac catheterization, or need for mechanical ventilation during the index admission were associated with increased LOS; receipt of a pacemaker device at index was associated with shorter LOS.LimitationsSelection of patients with systolic HF is limited by completeness and accuracy of medical coding, and results may not be generalizable to patients with diastolic HF or to international populations.ConclusionInpatient care, LOS, and in-hospital survival differ by payer among patients hospitalized with systolic HF, although co-morbidity and inpatient procedures consistently influence LOS across payer types. These findings may refine risk stratification, allowing for targeted intensive inpatient management and/or aggressive transitional care to improve outcomes and increase the efficiency of care.

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Comparison of Measures to Predict Mortality and Length of Stay in Hospitalized Patients.

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Comparison of Measures to Predict Mortality and Length of Stay in Hospitalized Patients.

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