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The incremental predictive value of frailty measures in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery: A systematic review.

ABSTRACT: Emerging evidence demonstrates that frailty measures can predict adverse outcomes after cardiac procedures. Our objectives were to examine whether the inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value to existing surgical risk prediction models in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and to evaluate the reporting and methods of studies that investigated the prediction of frailty measures in cardiology. The inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value on existing perioperative risk-scoring systems. We systematically searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases for relevant studies. Studies were included according to predefined inclusion criteria. The quality of included studies was appraised using the QUADAS-2 tool. Data were extracted and synthesized according to predefined methods. Twelve studies were included in the analysis. Included studies demonstrated the incremental predictive value of frailty measures on existing surgical risk models for mortality, but the predictive value of frailty measures alone was not consistent across literature. Few studies that investigated the predictive ability of frailty measures reported all important model performance measures. When comparing the predictive value of frailty measures with existing models, few studies reported if the frailty measurement was separately performed from the existing perioperative risk assessment. The addition of frailty measures to the existing perioperative risk models improved the prediction performance for mortality, but the incorporation of frailty assessment into perioperative risk assessment requires further evidence before making health policy recommendations.

SUBMITTER: Li Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6489782 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The incremental predictive value of frailty measures in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery: A systematic review.

Li Zhe Z Ding Xin X

Clinical cardiology 20180817 8

Emerging evidence demonstrates that frailty measures can predict adverse outcomes after cardiac procedures. Our objectives were to examine whether the inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value to existing surgical risk prediction models in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and to evaluate the reporting and methods of studies that investigated the prediction of frailty measures in cardiology. The inclusion of frailty measures adds incremental predictive value on existing p ...[more]

PMID: 29974493

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Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of cardiovascular events in perioperative period of gastrointestinal tumor surgery cannot be ignored, and studies have shown that level of postoperative troponin is related to the postoperative risk of non-cardiac surgery. However, the relationship between pre-operative troponin levels and perioperative risk of gastrointestinal tumor surgery is unclear. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the value of high-sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) prior to gastrointestinal tumor surgery for perioperative risk assessment.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, 1259 patients who underwent gastrointestinal tumor surgery and had been tested for hs-cTnI on admission within 7 days prior to surgery were retrospectively recruited from January 2018 to June 2020. The primary combined endpoint including in-hospital all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest or ventricular fibrillation and acute decompensated heart failure. The secondary endpoint included total hospital stay and requirement of intensive care treatment.FindingsCompared with patients with normal hs-cTnI, those with elevated hs-cTnI (> 0·028 ng/ml) were more likely to experience the combined endpoint (28·2% versus 2·7%, P < 0·001) and there was also an increasing rate of in mortality in elevated hs-cTnI group (2·4% versus 0·3%, P = 0·057). The length of total hospital stay was significantly longer in patients with elevated hs-cTnI (24·8 ± 16·3 versus 19·5 ± 7·9, P = 0·003) and the number of patients requiring intensive care treatment was also higher (22·6% versus 4·2%, P < 0·001). The area under the ROC curve assessing hs-cTnI in predicting in-hospital mortality was 0·787 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·612-0·963, P = 0·015] and for combined endpoint was 0·822 [95% CI 0·766-0·879, P < 0·001]. Hs-cTnI > 0·028 ng/ml was associated with significantly higher cardiovascular event rate in patients with the revised cardiac index ≤ 1. The positive likelihood ratio of hs-cTnI (> 0·028 ng/ml) for predicting combined endpoint reaches 10.5 in patients with Lee index = 0. In multivariate logistic analyses, hs-cTnI was one of the best predictors for the combined endpoint [odds ratio (OR) 5·924 (95%CI: 2·869-12·233), P < 0·001].InterpretationHs-cTnI provides powerful prognostic information for patients undergoing gastrointestinal tumor surgery, and therefore provides reliable prognostic information incremental to revised cardiac index.

Project description:ObjectivesPlasma troponins, measured by fourth-generation assays, are associated with increased mortality and morbidity after cardiac surgery. They also offer predictive information in addition to EuroSCORE, a widely used risk model after cardiac surgery. However, preoperatively measured troponin has provided no additional information to postoperative values. Whether these facts hold true also for the high-sensitivity fifth-generation troponin assay and the better calibrated risk model, EuroSCORE II, is unknown. We hypothesized that preoperative and/or postoperative high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) would increase the predictive value of EuroSCORE II.MethodsConsecutive coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and other cardiac surgical patients were prospectively enrolled in a university hospital. Plasma samples and EuroSCORE II variables were collected. The primary and secondary end-points were 180-day mortality and any major adverse event within 30 days, and 961-day mortality. The data were analysed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves, regression analyses, receiver operator characteristic curves and decision curve analysis.ResultsMortality rates in 180 days were 3.5% (15/428) in CABG and 6.4% (14/220) in other cardiac surgical patients. Survival curves differed only in patients with not only high postoperative hs-TnT value (>500 ng/l), but also high preoperative hs-TnT value (>14 ng/l), compared with patients with both hs-TnT values low. Adding hs-TnT to EuroSCORE II improved the prediction of 180-day mortality in other cardiac surgical patients (maximum net benefit of 1.5%), but not in CABG patients. Regarding major adverse events, adding hs-TnT to EuroSCORE II improved the prediction in both CABG patients and other cardiac surgical patients (maximum net benefits of 3 and 7%).ConclusionsElevated postoperative hs-TnT was predictive of mortality only when combined with elevated preoperative hs-TnT. Hs-TnT measurements added information to the EuroSCORE II regarding major adverse events in all cardiac surgical patients and regarding 180-day mortality in non-CABG patients.

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The incremental predictive value of frailty measures in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery: A systematic review.

Publications

The incremental predictive value of frailty measures in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery: A systematic review.

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