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Did government spending cuts to social care for older people lead to an increase in emergency hospital admissions? An ecological study, England 2005-2016.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Government spending on social care in England reduced substantially in real terms following the economic crisis in 2008, meanwhile emergency admissions to hospitals have increased. We aimed to assess the extent to which reductions in social care spend on older people have led to increases in emergency hospital admissions. DESIGN:We used negative binomial regression for panel data to assess the relationship between emergency hospital admissions and government spend on social care for older people. We adjusted for population size and for levels of deprivation and health. SETTING:Hospitals and adult social care services in England between April 2005 and March 2016. PARTICIPANTS:People aged 65 years and over resident in 132 local councils. OUTCOME MEASURES:Primary outcome variable-emergency hospital admissions of adults aged 65 years and over. Secondary outcome measure-emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) of adults aged 65 years and over. RESULTS:We found no significant relationship between the changes in the rate of government spend (£'000?s) on social care for older people within councils and our primary outcome variable, emergency hospital admissions (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.009, 95%?CI 0.965 to 1.056) or our secondary outcome measure, admissions for ACSCs (IRR 0.975, 95%?CI 0.917 to 1.038). CONCLUSIONS:We found no evidence to support the view that reductions in government spend on social care since 2008 have led to increases in emergency hospital admissions in older people. Policy makers may wish to review schemes, such as the Better Care Fund, which are predicated on a relationship between social care provision and emergency hospital admissions of older people.

SUBMITTER: Seamer P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6501965 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Did government spending cuts to social care for older people lead to an increase in emergency hospital admissions? An ecological study, England 2005-2016.

Seamer Paul P Brake Simon S Moore Patrick P Mohammed Mohammed A MA Wyatt Steven S

BMJ open 20190425 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>Government spending on social care in England reduced substantially in real terms following the economic crisis in 2008, meanwhile emergency admissions to hospitals have increased. We aimed to assess the extent to which reductions in social care spend on older people have led to increases in emergency hospital admissions.<h4>Design</h4>We used negative binomial regression for panel data to assess the relationship between emergency hospital admissions and government spend on so ...[more]

PMID: 31028036

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Project description:BackgroundOver the past decade, there have been significant and unequal cuts to local authority (LA) budgets, across England. Cultural, environmental and planning (CEP) budgets have been cut by 17% between 2011 and 2019. This funding supports services such as parks, leisure centres, community development and libraries, all of which have potential to influence population mental health. We therefore investigated whether cuts to CEP services have affected mental health outcomes and the extent to which they have contributed to mental health inequalities between areas.MethodsUsing fixed effects regression applied to longitudinal LA-level panel data in England, we assessed whether trends in CEP spend were associated with trends in mental health outcomes, between 2011 and 2019. The exposure was CEP spend and the primary outcome was the LA-average Small Area Mental Health Index (SAMHI). Additionally, we considered subcategories of CEP spend as secondary exposures, and antidepressant prescription rate and self-reported anxiety levels as secondary outcomes, both aggregated to LA-level. We adjusted all models for confounders and conducted subgroup analysis to examine differential mental health effects of spending cuts based on the level of area deprivation.ResultsThe average decrease in CEP spend of 15% over the period was associated with a 0.036 (95% CI: 0.005, 0.067) increase in SAMHI score, indicating worsening mental health. Amongst subcategories of CEP spending, cuts to planning and development services impacted mental health trends the most, with a 15% reduction in spend associated with a 0.018 (95% CI: 0.005, 0.031) increase in the SAMHI score. The association between cuts in CEP and deteriorating mental health was greater in more affluent areas.ConclusionCuts to spending on cultural, environmental, planning and development services were associated with worsening population mental health in England. Impacts were driven by cuts to planning and development services in particular. Reinvesting in these services may contribute to improved public mental health.

Project description:IntroductionReductions in local government spending may have impacts on diets and health which increase the risk of hospital admissions for nutritional anaemias. Mechanisms include potential impacts of changes to local authority (LA) services (eg, housing services) on personal resources and food access, availability and provision. We therefore investigated the association between changes in LA spending and nutritional anaemia-related hospital admissions. Specifically, we address whether greater cuts to LA spending were linked to increased hospital admissions for nutritional anaemias.DesignLongitudinal analysis of LA panel data using Poisson fixed effects regression models.Setting312 LAs in England (2005-2018).Main exposureTotal LA service expenditure per capita per year.Main outcomePrincipal and total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions, for all ages and stratified by age (0-14, 15-64, 65+ years).ResultsLA service expenditure increased by 9% between 2005 and 2009 then decreased by 20% between 2010 and 2018. Total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions increased between 2005 and 2018 from 173 to 633 admissions per 100 000 population. A £100 higher LA service spending was associated with a 1.9% decrease in total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR): 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.99). When stratified by age, this was seen only in adults. A £100 higher LA service spending was associated with a 2.6% decrease in total nutritional anaemia hospital admissions in the most deprived LAs (aIRR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.0).ConclusionIncreased LA spending was associated with reduced hospital admissions for nutritional anaemia. Austerity-related reductions had the opposite effect, increasing admissions, with greater impacts in more deprived areas. This adds further evidence to the potential negative impacts of austerity policies on health and health inequalities. Among other impacts, re-investing in LA services may prevent hospital admissions associated with nutritional anaemias.

Project description:BackgroundSince 2010, large reductions in funding for local government services have been introduced in England. These reductions in funding have potentially led to reduced provision of health-promoting public services. We aimed to investigate whether areas that showed a greater decline in funding also had more adverse trends in life expectancy and premature mortality.MethodsIn this longitudinal ecological study, we linked annual data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government on local government revenue expenditure and financing to 147 upper-tier local authorities in England between 2013 and 2017 with data from Public Health England, on male and female life expectancy at birth, male and female life expectancy at age 65 years, and premature (younger than 75 years) all-cause mortality rate for male and female individuals. Local authorities were excluded if their populations were too small or if changes in boundaries meant consistent data were not available. Using multivariable fixed-effects panel regression models, and controlling for local socioeconomic conditions, we estimated whether changes in local funding from 2013 were associated with changes in life expectancy and premature mortality. We included a set of alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings.FindingsBetween 2013 and 2017, mean per-capita central funding to local governments decreased by 33% or £168 per person (range -£385 to £1). Each £100 reduction in annual per person funding was associated over the study period 2013-17 with an average decrease in life expectancy at birth of 1·3 months (95% CI 0·7-1·9) for male individuals and 1·2 months (0·7-1·7) for female individuals; for life expectancy at age 65 years, the results show a decrease of 0·8 months (0·3-1·3) for male individuals and 1·1 months (0·7-1·5) for female individuals. Funding reductions were greater in more deprived areas and these areas had the worst changes in life expectancy. We estimated that cuts in funding were associated with an increase in the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles by 3% for men and 4% for women. Overall reductions in funding during this period were associated with an additional 9600 deaths in people younger than 75 years in England (3800-15 400), an increase of 1·25%.InterpretationOur findings indicate that cuts in funding for local government might in part explain adverse trends in life expectancy. Given that more deprived areas showed greater reductions in funding, our analysis suggests that inequalities have widened. Since the pandemic, strategies to address these adverse trends in life expectancy and reduce health inequalities could prioritise reinvestment in funding for local government services, particularly within the most deprived areas of England.FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast and Medical Research Council.

Project description:ObjectivesReform of England's social care system is repeatedly discussed in the context of increasing demand, rising costs and austere policies that have decreased service provision. This study investigates the association between unpaid carers' subjective well-being and local government spending on adult social care (ASC).Setting and participantsOur sample consists of 110 188 observations on 29 174 adults in England from the 2004-2007 British Household Panel Survey and the 2009-2018 UK Household Longitudinal Study. The data on local authorities' spending on ASC where participants live is derived from the publications Personal Social Care Expenditure and Unit Costs (2004-2016); and ASC Activity and Finance Report England (2016-2018).Outcome measuresSubjective well-being is measured by the 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and 12-item version of the Mental Component Summary (MCS-12). We applied fixed-effects linear models to investigate the moderating effect of ASC spending on the association between subjective well-being and caring, controlling for a range of socioeconomic and demographic variables.ResultsCarers have a lower level of subjective well-being compared with non-carers, evident in their higher average GHQ-12 Likert score (β=2.7277 95% CI 0.2547 to 5.2008). Differences in the subjective well-being of carers and non-carers decrease with local government spending on ASC. Subjective well-being for carers was at a similar level to that of non-carers in high ASC spending local authorities (GHQ-12: -0.0123 95% CI -0.2185 to 0.1938, MCS-12: 0.0347 95% CI -0.3403 to 0.4098) and lower in other areas (GHQ-12: 0.1893 95% CI 0.0680 to 0.3107, MCS-12: -0.2906 95% CI -0.5107 to -0.0705). The moderating effect of ASC spending is found among people who care for 35+ hours per week.ConclusionGovernment spending on ASC protects unpaid carers' well-being, and people providing more than 35 weekly hours of unpaid care are more likely to benefit from the current social care system.

Project description:Economic measures such as unemployment and gross domestic product are correlated with changes in health outcomes. We aimed to examine the effects of changes in government healthcare spending, an increasingly important measure given constrained government budgets in several European Union countries.Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in healthcare spending as a proportion of total government expenditure, government healthcare spending as a proportion of gross domestic product and government healthcare spending measured in purchasing power parity per capita, on five mortality indicators. Additional variables were controlled for to ensure robustness of data. One to five year lag analyses were conducted.European Union countries 1995-2010.Neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality, one to five years of age mortality, under five years of age mortality, adult male mortality, adult female mortality.A 1% decrease in government healthcare spending was associated with significant increase in all mortality metrics: neonatal mortality (coefficient -0.1217, p = 0.0001), postneonatal mortality (coefficient -0.0499, p = 0.0018), one to five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.0185, p = 0.0002), under five years of age mortality (coefficient -0.1897, p = 0.0003), adult male mortality (coefficient -2.5398, p = 0.0000) and adult female mortality (coefficient -1.4492, p = 0.0000). One per cent decrease in healthcare spending, measured as a proportion of gross domestic product and in purchasing power parity, was both associated with significant increases (p < 0.05) in all metrics. Five years after the 1% decrease in healthcare spending, significant increases (p < 0.05) continued to be observed in all mortality metrics.Decreased government healthcare spending is associated with increased population mortality in the short and long term. Policy interventions implemented in response to the financial crisis may be associated with worsening population health.

Project description:ObjectivesChanges in public sector service spending may influence food consumption. We make use of changing local authority (LA) expenditure in England to assess impacts on food purchasing. We examine total LA service spending and explore two potential pathways: highways and transport spending which may affect access to food; and housing service expenditure which may affect household resources available to purchase foods.DesignLongitudinal panel survey at the LA level (2008-2015) using fixed effects linear regression.Setting324 LAs in England.Main exposureExpenditure per capita on total LA services, highways and transport services, and housing services.Main outcome measuresLA area estimates of purchasing of fresh fruits and vegetables, high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) foods, and takeaways at home, expressed as a percentage of total food and drink expenditure.ResultsTotal LA service spending decreased by 17% on average between 2008 and 2015. A 10% decrease in total LA spending was associated with a 0.071 percentage point decrease in HFSS (95% CI -0.093 to -0.050) and a 0.015 percentage point increase in takeaways (95% CI 0.006 to 0.024). A 10% decrease in highways and transport expenditure was associated with a 0.006 percentage point decrease in fruit and vegetable purchasing (95% CI -0.009 to -0.002) and a 0.006 percentage point increase in takeaway purchasing (95% CI 0.001 to 0.010). These associations were seen in urban areas only when analyses were stratified by rural/urban area status. A 0.006 percentage point decrease in HFSS purchasing was also seen with a 10% decrease in housing expenditure (95% CI -0.010 to -0.002).ConclusionChanges in LA spending may have impacts on food purchasing which are evident at the area level. This suggests that in addition to more prominent impacts such as foodbank use, austerity measures may have mixed impacts on food purchasing behaviours among the wider population. Individual-level research is needed to further elucidate these relationships.

Project description:BackgroundLocal government provides Cultural, Environmental, and Planning (CEP) services, such as parks, libraries, and waste collection, that are vital for promoting health and wellbeing. There have been significant changes to the funding of these services over the past decade, most notably due to the UK government's austerity programme. These changes have not affected all places equally. To understand potential impacts on health inequalities, we investigated geographical patterning of recent CEP spending trends.MethodsWe conducted a time trend analysis using routinely available data on local government expenditure. We used generalised estimating equations to determine how expenditure trends varied across 378 local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain between 2009/10 and 2018/19 on the basis of country, deprivation, rurality, and local government structure. We investigated the gross expenditure per capita on CEP services, and the CEP expenditure as a proportion of total local authority budgets. We present the estimated annual percentage change in these spend measures.ResultsExpenditure per capita for CEP services reduced by 36% between 2009/10 and 2018/19. In England, the reduction in per capita spending was steepest in the most deprived quintile of areas, falling by 7.5% [95% CI: 6.0, 8.9] per year, compared to 4.5% [95% CI: 3.3, 5.6] per year in the least deprived quintile. Budget cuts in Scotland and Wales have been more equitable, with similar trends in the most and least deprived areas. Welsh LAs have reduced the proportion of total LA budget spent on CEP services the most (-4.0% per year, 95% CI: -5.0 to -2.9), followed by Scotland (-3.0% per year, 95% CI: -4.2 to -1.7) then England (-1.4% per year, 95% CI: -2.2 to -0.6). In England, rural and unitary LAs reduced their share of spending allocated to CEP more than urban and two-tier structured LAs, respectively.ConclusionFunding for cultural, environmental and planning services provided by local government in the UK has been cut dramatically over the last decade, with clear geographical inequalities. Local areas worst affected have been those with a higher baseline level of deprivation, those with a single-tier local government structure, and English rural local authorities. The inequalities in cuts to these services risk widening geographical inequalities in health and wellbeing.

Project description:Background and aimsExcessive alcohol consumption has a substantial impact on public health services. A key element determining alcohol availability is alcohol outlet density. This study investigated the relationship between on-trade and off-trade outlets and hospital admission rates in local neighbourhoods.DesignNational small-area level ecological study.Setting and participantsAll 32 482 lower layer super output census areas (LSOAs) in England (42 227 108 million people aged 15+ years). Densities for six outlet categories (outlets within a 1-km radius of residential postcode centroids, averaged for all postcodes within each LSOA) were calculated.MeasurementsMain outcome measures were admissions due to acute or chronic conditions wholly or partially attributable to alcohol consumption from 2002/03 to 2013/14.FindingsThere were 1 007 137 admissions wholly, and 2 153 874 admissions partially, attributable to alcohol over 12 years. After adjustment for confounding, higher densities of on-trade outlets (pubs, bars and nightclubs; restaurants licensed to sell alcohol; other on-trade outlets) and convenience stores were associated with higher admission rate ratios for acute and chronic wholly attributable conditions. For acute wholly attributable conditions, admission rate ratios were 13% (95% confidence interval = 11-15%), 9% (7-10%), 12% (10-14%) and 10% (9-12%) higher, respectively, in the highest relative to the lowest density categories by quartile. For chronic wholly attributable conditions, rate ratios were 22% (21-24%), 9% (7-11%), 19% (17-21%) and 7% (6-9%) higher, respectively. Supermarket density was associated with modestly higher acute and chronic admissions but other off-trade outlet density was associated only with higher admissions for chronic wholly attributable conditions. For partially attributable conditions, there were no strong patterns of association with outlet densities.ConclusionsIn England, higher densities of several categories of alcohol outlets appear to be associated with higher hospital admission rates for conditions wholly attributable to alcohol consumption.

Project description:BackgroundAround 6.5% of the population in the United Kingdom has been diagnosed with diabetes. It is associated with several long-term consequences and higher hospitalization rates.AimTo examine the profile of hospital admissions related to diabetes mellitus and the prescription rates of antidiabetic medications in England and Wales.MethodThis is an ecological study that was conducted for the period between April 1999 and April 2020 using publicly available hospitalisation data in England and Wales. Hospital admission data for patients of all ages was extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics in England and the Patient Episode Database for Wales. The difference between admission rates in 1999 and 2020, as well as the difference between diabetes mellitus medication prescription rates in 2004 and 2020, were assessed using the Pearson Chi-squared test. A Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to examine the trend in hospital admissions.ResultsA total of 1,757,892 diabetes mellitus hospital admissions were recorded in England and Wales during the duration of the study. The hospital admission rate for diabetes mellitus increased by 15.2%. This increase was concomitant with an increase in the antidiabetic medication prescribing rate of 105.9% between 2004 and 2020. Males and those in the age group of 15-59 years had a higher rate of hospital admission. The most common causes of admissions were type 1 diabetes mellitus related complications, which accounted for 47.1% of all admissions.ConclusionThis research gives an in-depth overview of the hospitalization profile in England and Wales during the previous two decades. In England and Wales, people with all types of diabetes and related problems have been hospitalized at a high rate over the past 20 years. Male gender and middle age were significant determinants in influencing admission rates. Diabetes mellitus type 1 complications were the leading cause of hospitalizations. We advocate establishing preventative and educational campaigns to promote the best standards of care for individuals with diabetes in order to lower the risk of diabetes-related complications.

Dataset Information

Did government spending cuts to social care for older people lead to an increase in emergency hospital admissions? An ecological study, England 2005-2016.

Publications

Did government spending cuts to social care for older people lead to an increase in emergency hospital admissions? An ecological study, England 2005-2016.

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