Dataset Information

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain ¹H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

ABSTRACT: This study investigated the ability of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-MRS) of posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and brain volumetry to predict the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) on the basis of clinical classification at 2?years follow-up. Thirty-eight MCI patients, eighteen healthy older adults and twenty-three AD patients were included in this study. All participants underwent a brain-MR protocol (1.5?T GE scanner) including high-resolution T1-weighted volumetric sequence (isotropic 1mm³). Voxel-wise differences in brain volumetry were evaluated using FreeSurfer software and all volumes were normalized by the total intracranial volume (TIV). Careful localization of ¹H-MRS volume of PCC was performed and data were processed with the LCModel program. MCI patients underwent a complete neuropsychological assessment at baseline and were clinically re-evaluated after a mean of 28?months; twenty-six MCI patients (68.4%) converted to AD and twelve remained stable. At baseline these two MCI subgroups did not differ in the global cognitive level (Mini Mental State Examination, MMSE) or in any of the other cognitive domains; the NAA/ mI ratio in the PCC was able to differentiate MCI converters from those MCI that did not develop AD (p?=?0.022) with a level of accuracy (AUC area) of 0.779. A significantly reduced volume of parahippocampal gyrus (p?=?0.010) and fusiform gyrus (p?=?0.026) were found in the converter MCI subgroup compared to the stable MCI subgroup. The combined use of both N- acetyl-aspartate (NAA)/myo-Inositol (mI) ratio and volume of parahippocampal gyrus, increases the overall accuracy (AUC?=?0.910) in predicting the conversion to AD two years before the development of clinical symptoms. Additional longitudinal studies with a broader representative sample of MCI patients and longer follow-up might be helpful to confirm these results and to elucidate the role of each parameter in predicting the possible progression to AD, and also to all the other non-AD dementia subtypes.

SUBMITTER: Mitolo M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6506639 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain <sup>1</sup>H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

Mitolo Micaela M Stanzani-Maserati Michelangelo M Capellari Sabina S Testa Claudia C Rucci Paola P Poda Roberto R Oppi Federico F Gallassi Roberto R Sambati Luisa L Rizzo Giovanni G Parchi Piero P Evangelisti Stefania S Talozzi Lia L Tonon Caterina C Lodi Raffaele R Liguori Rocco R

NeuroImage. Clinical 20190430

This study investigated the ability of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (<sup>1</sup>H-MRS) of posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and brain volumetry to predict the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) on the basis of clinical classification at 2 years follow-up. Thirty-eight MCI patients, eighteen healthy older adults and twenty-three AD patients were included in this study. All participants underwent a brain-MR protocol (1.5 T GE scanner) including high-res ...[more]

PMID: 31071594

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Project description:Random Survival Forests (RSF) has recently showed better performance than statistical survival methods as Cox proportional hazard (CPH) in predicting conversion risk from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, RSF application in real-world clinical setting is still limited due to its black-box nature.For this reason, we aimed at providing a comprehensive study of RSF explainability with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) on biomarkers of stable and progressive patients (sMCI and pMCI) from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We evaluated three global explanations-RSF feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP importance-and we quantitatively compared them with Rank-Biased Overlap (RBO). Moreover, we assessed whether multicollinearity among variables may perturb SHAP outcome. Lastly, we stratified pMCI test patients in high, medium and low risk grade, to investigate individual SHAP explanation of one pMCI patient per risk group.We confirmed that RSF had higher accuracy (0.890) than CPH (0.819), and its stability and robustness was demonstrated by high overlap (RBO > 90%) between feature rankings within first eight features. SHAP local explanations with and without correlated variables had no substantial difference, showing that multicollinearity did not alter the model. FDG, ABETA42 and HCI were the first important features in global explanations, with the highest contribution also in local explanation. FAQ, mPACCdigit, mPACCtrailsB and RAVLT immediate had the highest influence among all clinical and neuropsychological assessments in increasing progression risk, as particularly evident in pMCI patients' individual explanation. In conclusion, our findings suggest that RSF represents a useful tool to support clinicians in estimating conversion-to-AD risk and that SHAP explainer boosts its clinical utility with intelligible and interpretable individual outcomes that highlights key features associated with AD prognosis.

Project description:The increasing burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) emphasizes the need for effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Despite available treatments targeting amyloid beta (Aβ) plaques, disease-modifying therapies remain elusive. Early detection of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients at risk for AD conversion is crucial, especially with anti-Aβ therapy. While plasma biomarkers hold promise in differentiating AD from MCI, evidence on predicting cognitive decline is lacking. This study's objectives were to evaluate whether plasma protein biomarkers could predict both cognitive decline in non-demented individuals and the conversion to AD in patients with MCI. This study was conducted as part of the Korean Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging and Dementia (KLOSCAD), a prospective, community-based cohort. Participants were based on plasma biomarker availability and clinical diagnosis at baseline. The study included MCI (n = 50), MCI-to-AD (n = 21), and cognitively unimpaired (CU, n = 40) participants. Baseline plasma concentrations of six proteins-total tau (tTau), phosphorylated tau at residue 181 (pTau181), amyloid beta 42 (Aβ42), amyloid beta 40 (Aβ40), neurofilament light chain (NFL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-along with three derivative ratios (pTau181/tTau, Aβ42/Aβ40, pTau181/Aβ42) were analyzed to predict cognitive decline over a six-year follow-up period. Baseline protein biomarkers were stratified into tertiles (low, intermediate, and high) and analyzed using a linear mixed model (LMM) to predict longitudinal cognitive changes. In addition, Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to discern whether protein biomarkers could predict AD conversion in the MCI subgroup. This prospective cohort study revealed that plasma NFL may predict longitudinal declines in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. In participants categorized as amyloid positive, the NFL biomarker demonstrated predictive performance for both MMSE and total scores of the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Packet (CERAD-TS) longitudinally. Additionally, as a baseline predictor, GFAP exhibited a significant association with cross-sectional cognitive impairment in the CERAD-TS measure, particularly in amyloid positive participants. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis indicated predictive performance of NFL, GFAP, tTau, and Aβ42/Aβ40 on MCI-to-AD conversion. This study suggests that plasma GFAP in non-demented participants may reflect baseline cross-sectional CERAD-TS scores, a measure of global cognitive function. Conversely, plasma NFL may predict longitudinal decline in MMSE and CERAD-TS scores in participants categorized as amyloid positive. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis suggests that NFL, GFAP, tTau, and Aβ42/Aβ40 are potentially robust predictors of future AD conversion.

Project description:Multiple biomarkers can capture different facets of Alzheimer's disease. However, statistical models of biomarkers to predict outcomes in Alzheimer's rarely model nonlinear interactions between these measures. Here, we used Gaussian Processes to address this, modelling nonlinear interactions to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's over 3 years, using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data. Measures included: demographics, APOE4 genotype, CSF (amyloid-β42, total tau, phosphorylated tau), [18F ]florbetapir, hippocampal volume and brain-age. We examined: (a) the independent value of each biomarker; and (b) whether modelling nonlinear interactions between biomarkers improved predictions. Each measured added complementary information when predicting conversion to Alzheimer's. A linear model classifying stable from progressive MCI explained over half the variance (R2 = 0.51, p < .001); the strongest independently contributing biomarker was hippocampal volume (R2 = 0.13). When comparing sensitivity of different models to progressive MCI (independent biomarker models, additive models, nonlinear interaction models), we observed a significant improvement (p < .001) for various two-way interaction models. The best performing model included an interaction between amyloid-β-PET and P-tau, while accounting for hippocampal volume (sensitivity = 0.77, AUC = 0.826). Closely related biomarkers contributed uniquely to predict conversion to Alzheimer's. Nonlinear biomarker interactions were also implicated, and results showed that although for some patients adding additional biomarkers may add little value (i.e., when hippocampal volume is high), for others (i.e., with low hippocampal volume) further invasive and expensive examination may be warranted. Our framework enables visualisation of these interactions, in individual patient biomarker 'space', providing information for personalised or stratified healthcare or clinical trial design.

Dataset Information

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain ¹H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

Publications

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain <sup>1</sup>H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

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Dataset Information

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain 1H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

Publications

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain <sup>1</sup>H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using brain ¹H-MRS and volumetric changes: A two- year retrospective follow-up study.