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Dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention: modelling health outcomes, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:A vaginal ring containing dapivirine is effective for HIV prevention as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We evaluated the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP among 22- to 45-year-old women in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS:Using mathematical modelling, we studied dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP implementation, either unprioritized, or prioritized based on HIV incidence (?3% per year), age (22 to 29 years) or female sex worker status, alongside the implementation of voluntary medical male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy scaled-up to UNAIDS Fast-Track targets. Outcomes over the intervention (2019 to 2030) and lifetime horizons included cumulative HIV infections, life-years lived, costs and cost-effectiveness. We assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios against the revealed willingness to pay ($500) and the standard (2017 per capita gross domestic product; $6161) cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa. RESULTS:Compared to a reference scenario without PrEP, implementation of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP, assuming 56% effectiveness and covering 50% of 22 to 29-year-old or high-incidence women, prevented 10% or 11% of infections by 2030 respectively. Equivalent, unprioritized coverage (30%) prevented fewer infections (7%), whereas 50% coverage of female sex workers had the least impact (4%). Drug resistance attributable to PrEP was modest (2% to 4% of people living with drug-resistant HIV). Over the lifetime horizon, dapivirine PrEP implementation among female sex workers was cost-saving, whereas incidence-based PrEP cost $1898 per life-year gained, relative to PrEP among female sex workers and $989 versus the reference scenario. In a scenario of 37% PrEP effectiveness, PrEP had less impact, but prioritization to female sex workers remained cost-saving. In uncertainty analysis, female sex worker PrEP was consistently cost-saving; and over the lifetime horizon, PrEP cost less than $6161 per life-year gained in over 99% of simulations, whereas incidence- and age-based PrEP cost below $500 per life-year gained in 61% and 49% of simulations respectively. PrEP adherence and efficacy, and the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for HIV prevention, were the principal drivers of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of PrEP. CONCLUSIONS:Dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP would be cost-saving in KwaZulu-Natal if prioritized to female sex workers. PrEP's impact on HIV prevention would be increased, with potential affordability, if prioritized to women by age or incidence.

SUBMITTER: Glaubius R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6510112 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention: modelling health outcomes, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness.

Glaubius Robert R Ding Yajun Y Penrose Kerri J KJ Hood Greg G Engquist Erik E Mellors John W JW Parikh Urvi M UM Abbas Ume L UL

Journal of the International AIDS Society 20190501 5

<h4>Introduction</h4>A vaginal ring containing dapivirine is effective for HIV prevention as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We evaluated the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP among 22- to 45-year-old women in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>Using mathematical modelling, we studied dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP implementation, either unprioritized, or prioritized based on HIV incidence (≥3% per year), age (22 to 29 years) or femal ...[more]

PMID: 31074936

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Project description:BackgroundExpanded HIV prevention options are needed to increase uptake of HIV prevention among women, especially in generalized epidemics. As the dapivirine vaginal ring moves forward through regulatory review and open-label extension studies, the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this new prevention method are not fully known. We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the ring in different implementation scenarios alongside scale-up of other HIV prevention interventions. Given the knowledge gaps about key factors influencing the ring's implementation, including potential uptake and delivery costs, we engaged in a stakeholder consultation process to elicit plausible parameter ranges and explored scenarios to identify the possible range of impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness.Methods and findingsWe used the Goals model to simulate scenarios of oral and ring pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation among female sex workers and among other women ≤21 years or >21 years with multiple male partners, in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. In these scenarios, we varied antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, dapivirine ring coverage and ring effectiveness (encompassing efficacy and adherence) by risk group. Following discussions with stakeholders, the maximum level of PrEP coverage (oral and/or ring) considered in each country was equal to modern contraception use minus condom use in the two age groups. We assessed results for 18 years, from 2018 to 2035. In South Africa, for example, the HIV infections averted by PrEP (ring plus oral PrEP) ranged from 310,000 under the highest-impact scenario (including ART held constant at 2017 levels, high ring coverage, and 85% ring effectiveness) to 55,000 under the lowest-impact scenario (including ART reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020, low ring coverage, and 30% ring effectiveness). This represented a range of 6.4% to 2.2% of new HIV infections averted. Given our assumptions, the addition of the ring results in 11% to 132% more impact than oral PrEP alone. The cost per HIV infection averted for the ring ranged from US$13,000 to US$121,000.ConclusionsThis analysis offers a wide range of scenarios given the considerable uncertainty over ring uptake, consistency of use, and effectiveness, as well as HIV testing, prevention, and treatment use over the next two decades. This could help inform donors and implementers as they decide where to allocate resources in order to maximize the impact of the dapivirine ring in light of funding and implementation constraints. Better understanding of the cost and potential uptake of the intervention would improve our ability to estimate its cost-effectiveness and assess where it can have the most impact.

Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral medications that are used as prophylaxis can prevent acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. However, in clinical trials among African women, the incidence of HIV-1 infection was not reduced, probably because of low adherence. Longer-acting methods of drug delivery, such as vaginal rings, may simplify use of antiretroviral medications and provide HIV-1 protection.MethodsWe conducted a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a monthly vaginal ring containing dapivirine, a non-nucleoside HIV-1 reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, involving women between the ages of 18 and 45 years in Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.ResultsAmong the 2629 women who were enrolled, 168 HIV-1 infections occurred: 71 in the dapivirine group and 97 in the placebo group (incidence, 3.3 and 4.5 per 100 person-years, respectively). The incidence of HIV-1 infection in the dapivirine group was lower by 27% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 to 46; P=0.046) than that in the placebo group. In an analysis that excluded data from two sites that had reduced rates of retention and adherence, the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the dapivirine group was lower by 37% (95% CI, 12 to 56; P=0.007) than that in the placebo group. In a post hoc analysis, higher rates of HIV-1 protection were observed among women over the age of 21 years (56%; 95% CI, 31 to 71; P<0.001) but not among those 21 years of age or younger (-27%; 95% CI, -133 to 31; P=0.45), a difference that was correlated with reduced adherence. The rates of adverse medical events and antiretroviral resistance among women who acquired HIV-1 infection were similar in the two groups.ConclusionsA monthly vaginal ring containing dapivirine reduced the risk of HIV-1 infection among African women, with increased efficacy in subgroups with evidence of increased adherence. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01617096 .).

Project description:Although vaginal microbicides for HIV prevention are designed to be female-initiated, male partner influence has been identified as one of the most significant factors impacting women's willingness and ability to use them. As a result, research teams have sought to increase male partner involvement by encouraging disclosure of product use to male partners, promoting male partner engagement in the study through attendance at the study clinic, and helping women to garner male partner support for product use. This paper aims to assess the impact of these three elements of male partner involvement on women's adherence to the dapivirine vaginal ring during MTN-020/ASPIRE, a phase III randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial involving 2629 women in Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. During the study, 64-80% of participants reported disclosure of ring use at each quarterly visit, and 13% reported that their partners had attended the study clinic at some point during the study. At study exit, 66% reported that their partner was supportive, 18% unsupportive, and 17% were unsure. After adjusting for age, site and time in study, women were more likely to have low ring adherence if they had an unsupportive male partner (aRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.62). Neither disclosure nor clinic attendance directly predicted ring adherence, but disclosure increased the probability of having a supportive partner (aRRR 24.17, 95% CI 16.38-35.66) or an unsupportive partner (aRRR 4.10, 95% CI 2.70-6.24), relative to an unknown level of partner support. Women were also more likely to have a supportive partner if their partner had attended the clinic (aRRR 3.77, 95% CI 1.36-10.42). This study suggests that although the vaginal ring is relatively discreet, lack of support from male partners remains a relevant barrier to use. Though both disclosure and clinic attendance may increase partner support, disclosure may also increase partner opposition. Interventions to reduce male partner opposition are needed to maximize the potential impact of the ring and other PrEP products for HIV prevention.

Dataset Information

Dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention: modelling health outcomes, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness.

Publications

Dapivirine vaginal ring for HIV prevention: modelling health outcomes, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness.

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