Dataset Information

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

ABSTRACT: Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse. Base transmission potential estimated from city-level incidence data is positively correlated with population size and with spatiotemporal organization in population density, indicating a milder response to climate forcing in metropolises. This suggests that urban centers incubate critical chains of transmission outside of peak climatic conditions, altering the spatiotemporal geometry of herd immunity.

SUBMITTER: Dalziel BD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6510303 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

Dalziel Benjamin D BD Kissler Stephen S Gog Julia R JR Viboud Cecile C Bjørnstad Ottar N ON Metcalf C Jessica E CJE Grenfell Bryan T BT

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20181001 6410

Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse ...[more]

PMID: 30287659

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundSchool closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China.MethodsThis study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method.ResultsBetween 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2-22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5-16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1-14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1-15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7-11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9-9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6-9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor.ConclusionsEffectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons.

Dataset Information

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

Publications

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets