Dataset Information

Trends and patterns of deaths, injuries and intentional disabilities within the Libyan armed conflict: 2012-2017.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The consequences of armed conflicts impose considerable burdens on the economy and health care services, particularly in countries that are not equipped to deal with them, such as in the Middle-East, and North African countries. Little is known about the burden of mortality and injury resulting from the Libyan armed conflict. This study aimed to determine the trends and patterns of mortality, injury and disabilities directly associated with the Libyan armed conflict and analyze the geographic variation within the country during 2012-2107.

Methods

Data on conflict-related deaths, injuries, and disabilities were obtained from the national registry offices. The information included date, place, and demographic information. A questionnaire was also used to obtain information from the affected individuals and their families. National and regional trends of mortality, injury and disabilities were calculated. Spatial analysis was performed using geographic data available on all documented cases to analyze clustering of mortality and injury.

Results

A total of 16,126 deaths and 42,633 injuries were recorded with complete information during the Libyan conflict from 2012 till 2017. The overall mortality rate was 2.7/1000 population and injury rate was 7.1/1000. The overall male-to-female ratio of mortality and injury was 4.4:1; 42.3% were single and aged 20-30 years old, and 26.4% were aged 31-40 years. Moreover, injuries resulted in death in 20.1% of cases and disability in 33.5% of the cases. Most of the disabilities were caused by blasts, while gun shots resulted in more deaths. The overall mortality and injury rates were highest during 2015-2017. These rates were highest in the eastern region. Injuries were most concentrated in Benghazi and Derna in the east, followed by Sert and Musrata in the central region.

Conclusions

Conflict-related mortality, injury and disability has inflicted a heavy burden on the Libyan society that may persist for a long time. The rates of these casualties varied in time and place. National, well-planned efforts are needed to address this serious situation and its consequences.

SUBMITTER: Daw MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6510427 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Trends and patterns of deaths, injuries and intentional disabilities within the Libyan armed conflict: 2012-2017.

Daw Mohamed A MA El-Bouzedi Abdallah H AH Dau Aghnyia A AA

PloS one 20190510 5

<h4>Background</h4>The consequences of armed conflicts impose considerable burdens on the economy and health care services, particularly in countries that are not equipped to deal with them, such as in the Middle-East, and North African countries. Little is known about the burden of mortality and injury resulting from the Libyan armed conflict. This study aimed to determine the trends and patterns of mortality, injury and disabilities directly associated with the Libyan armed conflict and analyz ...[more]

PMID: 31075119

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Project description:BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.MethodsWe included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.ResultsWe identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.ConclusionsArmed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

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Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, the latest estimates of excess all-cause deaths through January to July 2020 showed that the overall (direct and indirect) mortality burden from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was relatively low compared to Europe and the United States. However, consistency between the reported number of COVID-19 deaths and excess all-cause deaths was limited across prefectures, suggesting the necessity of distinguishing the direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19 by cause-specific analysis. To examine whether deaths from road injuries decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, consistent with a possible reduction of road transport activity connected to Japan's state of emergency declaration, we estimated the exiguous deaths from road injuries in each week from January to September 2020 by 47 prefectures.MethodsTo estimate the expected weekly number of deaths from road injuries, a quasi-Poisson regression was applied to daily traffic fatalities data obtained from Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis, Japan. We set two thresholds, point estimate and lower bound of the two-sided 95% prediction interval, for exiguous deaths, and report the range of differences between the observed number of deaths and each of these thresholds as exiguous deaths.ResultsSince January 2020, in a few weeks the observed deaths from road injuries fell below the 95% lower bound, such as April 6-12 (exiguous deaths 5-21, percent deficit 2.82-38.14), May 4-10 (8-23, 21.05-43.01), July 20-26 (12-29, 30.77-51.53), and August 3-9 (3-20, 7.32-34.41). However, those less than the 95% lower bound were also observed in weeks in the previous years.ConclusionsThe number of road traffic fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan has decreased slightly, but not significantly, in several weeks compared with the average year. This suggests that the relatively small changes in excess all-cause mortality observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic could not be explained simply by an offsetting reduction in traffic deaths. Considering a variety of other indirect effects, evaluating an independent, unbiased measure of COVID-19-related mortality burden could provide insight into the design of future broad-based infectious disease counter-measures and offer lessons to other countries.

Dataset Information

Trends and patterns of deaths, injuries and intentional disabilities within the Libyan armed conflict: 2012-2017.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Trends and patterns of deaths, injuries and intentional disabilities within the Libyan armed conflict: 2012-2017.

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