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Predicting need for advanced illness or palliative care in a primary care population using electronic health record data.

ABSTRACT: Timely outreach to individuals in an advanced stage of illness offers opportunities to exercise decision control over health care. Predictive models built using Electronic health record (EHR) data are being explored as a way to anticipate such need with enough lead time for patient engagement. Prior studies have focused on hospitalized patients, who typically have more data available for predicting care needs. It is unclear if prediction driven outreach is feasible in the primary care setting. In this study, we apply predictive modeling to the primary care population of a large, regional health system and systematically examine the impact of technical choices, such as requiring a minimum number of health care encounters (data density requirements) and aggregating diagnosis codes using Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) groupings to reduce dimensionality, on model performance in terms of discrimination and positive predictive value. We assembled a cohort of 349,667 primary care patients between 65 and 90?years of age who sought care from Sutter Health between July 1, 2011 and June 30, 2014, of whom 2.1% died during the study period. EHR data comprising demographics, encounters, orders, and diagnoses for each patient from a 12?month observation window prior to the point when a prediction is made were extracted. L1 regularized logistic regression and gradient boosted tree models were fit to training data and tuned by cross validation. Model performance in predicting one year mortality was assessed using held-out test patients. Our experiments systematically varied three factors: model type, diagnosis coding, and data density requirements. We found substantial, consistent benefit from using gradient boosting vs logistic regression (mean AUROC over all other technical choices of 84.8% vs 80.7% respectively). There was no benefit from aggregation of ICD codes into CCS code groups (mean AUROC over all other technical choices of 82.9% vs 82.6% respectively). Likewise increasing data density requirements did not affect discrimination (mean AUROC over other technical choices ranged from 82.5% to 83%). We also examine model performance as a function of lead time, which is the interval between death and when a prediction was made. In subgroup analysis by lead time, mean AUROC over all other choices ranged from 87.9% for patients who died within 0 to 3?months to 83.6% for those who died 9 to 12?months after prediction time.

SUBMITTER: Jung K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6512802 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting need for advanced illness or palliative care in a primary care population using electronic health record data.

Jung Kenneth K Sudat Sylvia E K SEK Kwon Nicole N Stewart Walter F WF Shah Nigam H NH

Journal of biomedical informatics 20190210

Timely outreach to individuals in an advanced stage of illness offers opportunities to exercise decision control over health care. Predictive models built using Electronic health record (EHR) data are being explored as a way to anticipate such need with enough lead time for patient engagement. Prior studies have focused on hospitalized patients, who typically have more data available for predicting care needs. It is unclear if prediction driven outreach is feasible in the primary care setting. I ...[more]

PMID: 30753951

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. In Canada, more than half of all health care spending is used for managing chronic diseases. Although studies have shown that the use of advanced features of electronic medical record (EMR) systems improves the quality of chronic disease prevention and management (CDPM), a 2012 international survey found that Canadian physicians were the least likely to use 2 or more EMR system functions. Some studies show that maturity vis-à-vis clinicians' EMR use is an important factor when evaluating the use of advanced features of health information systems. The Clinical Adoption Framework (CAF), a common evaluation framework used to assess the success of EMR adoption, does not incorporate the process of maturing. Nevertheless, the CAF and studies that discuss the barriers to and facilitators of the adoption of EMR systems can be the basis for exploring the use of advanced EMR features. OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to explore the factors that primary care physicians in Ontario identified as influencing their use of advanced EMR features to support CDPM and to extend the CAF to include primary care physicians' perceptions of how their use of EMRs for performing clinical tasks has matured. METHODS:Guided by the CAF, directed content analysis was used to explore the barriers and facilitating factors encountered by primary care physicians when using EMR features. Participants were primary care physicians in Ontario, Canada, who use EMRs. Data were coded using categories from the CAF. RESULTS:A total of 9 face-to-face interviews were conducted from January 2017 to July 2017. Dimensions from the CAF emerged from the data, and one new dimension was derived: physicians' perception of their maturity of EMR use. Primary care physicians identified the following key factors that impacted their use of advanced EMR features: performance of EMR features, information quality of EMR features, training and technical support, user satisfaction, provider's productivity, personal characteristics and roles, cost benefits of EMR features, EMR systems infrastructure, funding, and government leadership. CONCLUSIONS:The CAF was extended to include physicians' perceptions of how their use of EMR systems had matured. Most participants agreed that their use of EMR systems for performing clinical tasks had evolved since their adoption of the system and that certain system features facilitated their care for patients with chronic diseases. However, several barriers were identified and should be addressed to further enhance primary care physicians' use of advanced EMR features to support CDPM.

Project description:RationalePatients transferred from the intensive care unit to the wards who are later readmitted to the intensive care unit have increased length of stay, healthcare expenditure, and mortality compared with those who are never readmitted. Improving risk stratification for patients transferred to the wards could have important benefits for critically ill hospitalized patients.ObjectivesWe aimed to use a machine-learning technique to derive and validate an intensive care unit readmission prediction model with variables available in the electronic health record in real time and compare it to previously published algorithms.MethodsThis observational cohort study was conducted at an academic hospital in the United States with approximately 600 inpatient beds. A total of 24,885 intensive care unit transfers to the wards were included, with 14,962 transfers (60%) in the training cohort and 9,923 transfers (40%) in the internal validation cohort. Patient characteristics, nursing assessments, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes from prior admissions, medications, intensive care unit interventions, diagnostic tests, vital signs, and laboratory results were extracted from the electronic health record and used as predictor variables in a gradient-boosted machine model. Accuracy for predicting intensive care unit readmission was compared with the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and Modified Early Warning Score in the internal validation cohort and also externally using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database (n = 42,303 intensive care unit transfers).ResultsEleven percent (2,834) of discharges to the wards were later readmitted to the intensive care unit. The machine-learning-derived model had significantly better performance (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.76) than either the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.65), or Modified Early Warning Score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.58; P value < 0.0001 for all comparisons). At a specificity of 95%, the derived model had a sensitivity of 28% compared with 15% for Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and 7% for the Modified Early Warning Score. Accuracy improvements with the derived model over Modified Early Warning Score and Stability and Workload Index for Transfer were similar in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort.ConclusionsA machine learning approach to predicting intensive care unit readmission was significantly more accurate than previously published algorithms in both our internal validation and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort. Implementation of this approach could target patients who may benefit from additional time in the intensive care unit or more frequent monitoring after transfer to the hospital ward.

Project description:Backgroundfrailty is an especially problematic expression of population ageing. International guidelines recommend routine identification of frailty to provide evidence-based treatment, but currently available tools require additional resource.Objectivesto develop and validate an electronic frailty index (eFI) using routinely available primary care electronic health record data.Study design and settingretrospective cohort study. Development and internal validation cohorts were established using a randomly split sample of the ResearchOne primary care database. External validation cohort established using THIN database.Participantspatients aged 65-95, registered with a ResearchOne or THIN practice on 14 October 2008.Predictorswe constructed the eFI using the cumulative deficit frailty model as our theoretical framework. The eFI score is calculated by the presence or absence of individual deficits as a proportion of the total possible. Categories of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty were defined using population quartiles.Outcomesoutcomes were 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission.Statistical analysishazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration was assessed using pseudo-R(2) estimates.Resultswe include data from a total of 931,541 patients. The eFI incorporates 36 deficits constructed using 2,171 CTV3 codes. One-year adjusted HR for mortality was 1.92 (95% CI 1.81-2.04) for mild frailty, 3.10 (95% CI 2.91-3.31) for moderate frailty and 4.52 (95% CI 4.16-4.91) for severe frailty. Corresponding estimates for hospitalisation were 1.93 (95% CI 1.86-2.01), 3.04 (95% CI 2.90-3.19) and 4.73 (95% CI 4.43-5.06) and for nursing home admission were 1.89 (95% CI 1.63-2.15), 3.19 (95% CI 2.73-3.73) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.92-5.77), with good to moderate discrimination but low calibration estimates.Conclusionsthe eFI uses routine data to identify older people with mild, moderate and severe frailty, with robust predictive validity for outcomes of mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission. Routine implementation of the eFI could enable delivery of evidence-based interventions to improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.

Project description:BackgroundPatients in intensive care units (ICUs) often require quality palliative care for relief from various types of suffering. To achieve quality palliative care, specific goals need to be identified, measured, and reported. The present study aimed to develop quality indicators (QIs) for palliative care in ICUs, based on a systematic review and modified Delphi method, and test their feasibility by reviewing electronic medical record (EMR) data.MethodsThe current study was performed in two phases: the development of QIs using the modified Delphi method, and pilot-testing the quality of palliative care in ICUs based on EMR review. The pilot test included 262 patients admitted to the general or emergency ICU at a university hospital from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2019.ResultsA 28-item QI set for palliative care in ICUs was developed based on the consensus of 16 experts. The Delphi process resulted in low measurability ratings for two items: "Assessment of the patient's psychological distress" and "Assessment of the patient's spiritual and cultural practices." However, these items were determined to be important for quality care from the perspective of holistic assessment of distress and were adopted in the final version of the QI set. While the pilot test results indicated the feasibility of the developed QIs, they suggested that the frequency of care performance varied, and certain aspects of palliative care in ICUs needed to be improved, namely (1) regular pain assessment, (2) identification of the patient's advance directive and advance care planning for treatment, (3) conducting an interdisciplinary family conference on palliative care, and (4) assessment of psychological distress of family members.ConclusionsThe QI set, developed using the modified Delphi method and tested using EMR data, provided a tool for assessing the quality of palliative care in ICUs. In the two ICUs considered in this study, aspects of the palliative care process with a low performance frequency were identified, and further national surveys were recommended. It is necessary to conduct ongoing surveys at more facilities to improve the quality of palliative care in ICUs.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The increased use of electronic medical records (EMRs) in Canadian primary health care practice has resulted in an expansion of the availability of EMR data. Potential users of these data need to understand their quality in relation to the uses to which they are applied. Herein, we propose a basic model for assessing primary health care EMR data quality, comprising a set of data quality measures within four domains. We describe the process of developing and testing this set of measures, share the results of applying these measures in three EMR-derived datasets, and discuss what this reveals about the measures and EMR data quality. The model is offered as a starting point from which data users can refine their own approach, based on their own needs. METHODS:Using an iterative process, measures of EMR data quality were created within four domains: comparability; completeness; correctness; and currency. We used a series of process steps to develop the measures. The measures were then operationalized, and tested within three datasets created from different EMR software products. RESULTS:A set of eleven final measures were created. We were not able to calculate results for several measures in one dataset because of the way the data were collected in that specific EMR. Overall, we found variability in the results of testing the measures (e.g. sensitivity values were highest for diabetes, and lowest for obesity), among datasets (e.g. recording of height), and by patient age and sex (e.g. recording of blood pressure, height and weight). CONCLUSIONS:This paper proposes a basic model for assessing primary health care EMR data quality. We developed and tested multiple measures of data quality, within four domains, in three different EMR-derived primary health care datasets. The results of testing these measures indicated that not all measures could be utilized in all datasets, and illustrated variability in data quality. This is one step forward in creating a standard set of measures of data quality. Nonetheless, each project has unique challenges, and therefore requires its own data quality assessment before proceeding.

Dataset Information

Predicting need for advanced illness or palliative care in a primary care population using electronic health record data.

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Predicting need for advanced illness or palliative care in a primary care population using electronic health record data.

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