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Bayesian Data Analysis for Revealing Causes of the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

ABSTRACT: Currently, causes of the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) - the onset of large-amplitude glacial variability with 100 kyr time scale instead of regular 41 kyr cycles before - are a challenging puzzle in Paleoclimatology. Here we show how a Bayesian data analysis based on machine learning approaches can help to reveal the main mechanisms underlying the Pleistocene variability, which most likely explain proxy records and can be used for testing existing theories. We construct a Bayesian data-driven model from benthic ?18O records (LR04 stack) accounting for the main factors which may potentially impact climate of the Pleistocene: internal climate dynamics, gradual trends, variations of insolation, and millennial variability. In contrast to some theories, we uncover that under long-term trends in climate, the strong glacial cycles have appeared due to internal nonlinear oscillations induced by millennial noise. We find that while the orbital Milankovitch forcing does not matter for the MPT onset, the obliquity oscillation phase-locks the climate cycles through the meridional gradient of insolation.

SUBMITTER: Mukhin D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6513842 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Data Analysis for Revealing Causes of the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Mukhin Dmitry D Gavrilov Andrey A Loskutov Evgeny E Kurths Juergen J Feigin Alexander A

Scientific reports 20190513 1

Currently, causes of the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) - the onset of large-amplitude glacial variability with 100 kyr time scale instead of regular 41 kyr cycles before - are a challenging puzzle in Paleoclimatology. Here we show how a Bayesian data analysis based on machine learning approaches can help to reveal the main mechanisms underlying the Pleistocene variability, which most likely explain proxy records and can be used for testing existing theories. We construct a Bayesian data-dr ...[more]

PMID: 31086256

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Project description:BackgroundAncient protein sequences are increasingly used to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships between extinct and extant mammalian taxa. Here, we apply these recent developments to Middle Pleistocene bone specimens of the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus. No biomolecular sequence data is currently available for this genus, leaving phylogenetic hypotheses on its evolutionary relationships to extant and extinct rhinoceroses untested. Furthermore, recent phylogenies based on Rhinocerotidae (partial or complete) mitochondrial DNA sequences differ in the placement of the Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis). Therefore, studies utilising ancient protein sequences from Middle Pleistocene contexts have the potential to provide further insights into the phylogenetic relationships between extant and extinct species, including Stephanorhinus and Dicerorhinus.MethodsZooMS screening (zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry) was performed on several Late and Middle Pleistocene specimens from the genus Stephanorhinus, subsequently followed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to obtain ancient protein sequences from a Middle Pleistocene Stephanorhinus specimen. We performed parallel analysis on a Late Pleistocene woolly rhinoceros specimen and extant species of rhinoceroses, resulting in the availability of protein sequence data for five extant species and two extinct genera. Phylogenetic analysis additionally included all extant Perissodactyla genera (Equus, Tapirus), and was conducted using Bayesian (MrBayes) and maximum-likelihood (RAxML) methods.ResultsVarious ancient proteins were identified in both the Middle and Late Pleistocene rhinoceros samples. Protein degradation and proteome complexity are consistent with an endogenous origin of the identified proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of informative proteins resolved the Perissodactyla phylogeny in agreement with previous studies in regards to the placement of the families Equidae, Tapiridae, and Rhinocerotidae. Stephanorhinus is shown to be most closely related to the genera Coelodonta and Dicerorhinus. The protein sequence data further places the Sumatran rhino in a clade together with the genus Rhinoceros, opposed to forming a clade with the black and white rhinoceros species.DiscussionThe first biomolecular dataset available for Stephanorhinus places this genus together with the extinct genus Coelodonta and the extant genus Dicerorhinus. This is in agreement with morphological studies, although we are unable to resolve the order of divergence between these genera based on the protein sequences available. Our data supports the placement of the genus Dicerorhinus in a clade together with extant Rhinoceros species. Finally, the availability of protein sequence data for both extinct European rhinoceros genera allows future investigations into their geographic distribution and extinction chronologies.

Project description:Excavations at the Longtan Cave, Hexian, Anhui Province of Eastern China, have yielded several hominin fossils including crania, mandibular fragments, and teeth currently dated to 412 ± 25 ka. While previous studies have focused on the cranial remains, there are no detailed analyses of the dental evidence. In this study, we provide metric and morphological descriptions and comparisons of ten teeth recovered from Hexian, including microcomputed tomography analyses. Our results indicate that the Hexian teeth are metrically and morphologically primitive and overlap with H. ergaster and East Asian Early and mid-Middle Pleistocene hominins in their large dimensions and occlusal complexities. However, the Hexian teeth differ from H. ergaster in features such as conspicuous vertical grooves on the labial/buccal surfaces of the central incisor and the upper premolar, the crown outline shapes of upper and lower molars and the numbers, shapes, and divergences of the roots. Despite their close geological ages, the Hexian teeth are also more primitive than Zhoukoudian specimens, and resemble Sangiran Early Pleistocene teeth. In addition, no typical Neanderthal features have been identified in the Hexian sample. Our study highlights the metrical and morphological primitive status of the Hexian sample in comparison to contemporaneous or even earlier populations of Asia. Based on this finding, we suggest that the primitive-derived gradients of the Asian hominins cannot be satisfactorily fitted along a chronological sequence, suggesting complex evolutionary scenarios with the coexistence and/or survival of different lineages in Eurasia. Hexian could represent the persistence in time of a H. erectus group that would have retained primitive features that were lost in other Asian populations such as Zhoukoudian or Panxian Dadong. Our study expands the metrical and morphological variations known for the East Asian hominins before the mid-Middle Pleistocene and warns about the possibility that the Asian hominin variability may have been taxonomically oversimplified.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Data Analysis for Revealing Causes of the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Publications

Bayesian Data Analysis for Revealing Causes of the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

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