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Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review.

ABSTRACT: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the world's most disabling mosquito-borne diseases, with a variety of approaches available to model its spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper aims to identify and compare the different spatial and spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling methods that have been applied to DF and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with the risk of DF. A systematic search was performed in December 2017, using Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, PubMed, ProQuest and Medline (via Ebscohost) electronic databases. The search was restricted to refereed journal articles published in English from January 2000 to November 2017. Thirty-one articles met the inclusion criteria. Using a modified quality assessment tool, the median quality score across studies was 14/16. The most popular Bayesian statistical approach to dengue modelling was a generalised linear mixed model with spatial random effects described by a conditional autoregressive prior. A limited number of studies included spatio-temporal random effects. Temperature and precipitation were shown to often influence the risk of dengue. Developing spatio-temporal random-effect models, considering other priors, using a dataset that covers an extended time period, and investigating other covariates would help to better understand and control DF transmission.

SUBMITTER: Aswi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6518570 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review.

Aswi A A Cramb S M SM Moraga P P Mengersen K K

Epidemiology and infection 20181029

Dengue fever (DF) is one of the world's most disabling mosquito-borne diseases, with a variety of approaches available to model its spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper aims to identify and compare the different spatial and spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling methods that have been applied to DF and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with the risk of DF. A systematic search was performed in December 2017, using Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, PubMed, P ...[more]

PMID: 30369335

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Project description:BackgroundAt present, dengue control focuses on reducing the density of the primary vector for the disease, Aedes aegypti, which is the only vulnerable link in the chain of transmission. The use of new approaches for dengue entomological surveillance is extremely important, since present methods are inefficient. With this in mind, the present study seeks to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of A. aegypti infestation with oviposition traps, using efficient computational methods. These methods will allow for the implementation of the proposed model and methodology into surveillance and monitoring systems.MethodsThe study area includes a region in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, characterized by high population density, precarious domicile construction, and a general lack of infrastructure around it. Two hundred and forty traps were distributed in eight different sentinel areas, in order to continually monitor immature Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Collections were done weekly between November 2010 and August 2012. The relationship between egg number and climate and environmental variables was considered and evaluated through Bayesian zero-inflated spatio-temporal models. Parametric inference was performed using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method.ResultsInfestation indexes indicated that ovipositing occurred during the entirety of the study period. The distance between each trap and the nearest boundary of the study area, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall were all significantly related to the number of eggs present in the traps. Adjusting for the interaction between temperature and rainfall led to a more informative surveillance model, as such thresholds offer empirical information about the favorable climatic conditions for vector reproduction. Data were characterized by moderate time (0.29 - 0.43) and spatial (21.23 - 34.19 m) dependencies. The models also identified spatial patterns consistent with human population density in all sentinel areas. The results suggest the need for weekly surveillance in the study area, using traps allocated between 18 and 24 m, in order to understand the dengue vector dynamics.ConclusionsAedes aegypti, due to it short generation time and strong response to climate triggers, tend to show an eruptive dynamics that is difficult to predict and understand through just temporal or spatial models. The proposed methodology allowed for the rapid and efficient implementation of spatio-temporal models that considered zero-inflation and the interaction between climate variables and patterns in oviposition, in such a way that the final model parameters contribute to the identification of priority areas for entomological surveillance.

Project description:Background Approaches in malaria risk mapping continue to advance in scope with the advent of geostatistical techniques spanning both the spatial and temporal domains. A substantive review of the merits of the methods and covariates used to map malaria risk has not been undertaken. Therefore, this review aimed to systematically retrieve, summarise methods and examine covariates that have been used for mapping malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods A systematic search of malaria risk mapping studies was conducted using PubMed, EBSCOhost, Web of Science and Scopus databases. The search was restricted to refereed studies published in English from January 1968 to April 2020. To ensure completeness, a manual search through the reference lists of selected studies was also undertaken. Two independent reviewers completed each of the review phases namely: identification of relevant studies based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, data extraction and methodological quality assessment using a validated scoring criterion. Results One hundred and seven studies met the inclusion criteria. The median quality score across studies was 12/16 (range: 7–16). Approximately half (44%) of the studies employed variable selection techniques prior to mapping with rainfall and temperature selected in over 50% of the studies. Malaria incidence (47%) and prevalence (35%) were the most commonly mapped outcomes, with Bayesian geostatistical models often (31%) the preferred approach to risk mapping. Additionally, 29% of the studies employed various spatial clustering methods to explore the geographical variation of malaria patterns, with Kulldorf scan statistic being the most common. Model validation was specified in 53 (50%) studies, with partitioning data into training and validation sets being the common approach. Conclusions Our review highlights the methodological diversity prominent in malaria risk mapping across SSA. To ensure reproducibility and quality science, best practices and transparent approaches should be adopted when selecting the statistical framework and covariates for malaria risk mapping. Findings underscore the need to periodically assess methods and covariates used in malaria risk mapping; to accommodate changes in data availability, data quality and innovation in statistical methodology.

Project description:BackgroundGliomas are the most common types of brain cancer, well known for their aggressive proliferation and the invasive behavior leading to a high mortality rate. Several mathematical models have been developed for identifying the interactions between glioma cells and tissue microenvironment, which play an important role in the mechanism of the tumor formation and progression.MethodsBuilding and expanding on existing approaches, this paper develops a continuous three-dimensional model of avascular glioma spatio-temporal evolution. The proposed spherical model incorporates the interactions between the populations of four different glioma cell phenotypes (proliferative, hypoxic, hypoglychemic and necrotic) and their tissue microenvironment, in order to investigate how they affect tumor growth and invasion in an isotropic and homogeneous medium. The model includes two key variables involved in the proliferation and invasion processes of cancer cells; i.e. the extracellular matrix and the matrix-degradative enzymes concentrations inside the tumor and its surroundings. Additionally, the proposed model focuses on innovative features, such as the separate and independent impact of two vital nutrients, namely oxygen and glucose, in tumor growth, leading to the formation of cell populations with different metabolic profiles. The model implementation takes under consideration the variations of particular factors, such as the local cell proliferation rate, the variable conversion rates of cells from one category to another and the nutrient-dependent thresholds of conversion. All model variables (cell densities, ingredients concentrations) are continuous and described by reaction-diffusion equations.ResultsSeveral simulations were performed using combinations of growth and invasion rates, for different evolution times. The model results were evaluated by medical experts and validated on experimental glioma models available in the literature, revealing high agreement between simulated and experimental results.ConclusionsBased on the experimental validation, as well as the evaluation by clinical experts, the proposed model may provide an essential tool for the patient-specific simulation of different tumor evolution scenarios and reliable prognosis of glioma spatio-temporal progression.

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Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review.

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Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review.

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