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Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data.

ABSTRACT: In England, 160 000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employed a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly modelled infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimated that there were 143 000 chronic infections in 2015 (95% credible interval 123 000-161 000), with 34% and 54% in those with recent and past injecting drug use, respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections were predicted to fall to 113 400 (94 900-132 400) by the end of 2018 and to 89 500 (71 300-108 600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease were predicted to fall by at least 24% from 2015 to 2020. Thus, we describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.

SUBMITTER: Harris RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6518935 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the rate of complicated birth at term in women classified at low risk according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for intrapartum care (no pre-existing medical conditions, important obstetric history, or complications during pregnancy) and to assess if the risk classification can be improved by considering parity and the number of risk factors.DesignCohort study using linked electronic maternity records.Participants276 766 women with a singleton birth at term after a trial of labour in 87 NHS hospital trusts in England between April 2015 and March 2016.Main outcome measureA composite outcome of complicated birth, defined as a birth with use of an instrument, caesarean delivery, anal sphincter injury, postpartum haemorrhage, or Apgar score of 7 or less at five minutes.ResultsMultiparous women without a history of caesarean section had the lowest rates of complicated birth, varying from 8.8% (4879 of 55 426 women, 95% confidence interval 8.6% to 9.0%) in those without specific risk factors to 21.8% (613 of 2811 women, 20.2% to 23.4%) in those with three or more. The rate of complicated birth was higher in nulliparous women, with corresponding rates varying from 43.4% (25 805 of 59 413 women, 43.0% to 43.8%) to 64.3% (364 of 566 women, 60.3% to 68.3%); and highest in multiparous women with previous caesarean section, with corresponding rates varying from 42.9% (3426 of 7993 women, 41.8% to 44.0%) to 66.3% (554 of 836 women, 63.0% to 69.5%).ConclusionsNulliparous women without risk factors have substantially higher rates of complicated birth than multiparous women without a previous caesarean section even if the latter have multiple risk factors. Grouping women first according to parity and previous mode of birth, and then within these groups according to presence of specific risk factors would provide greater and more informed choice to women, better targeting of interventions, and fewer transfers during labour than according to the presence of risk factors alone.

Project description:BackgroundEvidence on the most effective and cost-effective management of ankle fractures is sparse but evolving. A recent large RCT in older patients with unstable fractures found that management with close-contact-casting was functionally equivalent and more cost-effective than internal fixation. We describe temporal and geographic variation in ankle fracture management and estimate the potential savings if close-contact-casting was used more often in older patients.MethodsPatients admitted to hospital in England between 2007/08 and 2016/17 with an ankle fracture were identified using routine hospital episode statistics. We tested whether the use of internal fixation, and the proportion of internal fixations using intramedullary implants, changed over time. We estimated the potential annual cost savings if patients aged 60+ years were treated with close-contact-casting rather than internal fixation, in line with emerging evidence.ResultsOver the 10-year period, there were 223,465 hospital admissions with a primary ankle fracture diagnosis. The incidence (per 100,000) of internal fixation was fairly consistent over time in younger (33.2 in 2007/08, 30.9 in 2016/17) and older (36.5 in 2007/08, 37.4 in 2016/17) patients. The proportion of internal fixations which used intramedullary implants increased in both age groups (17.0-19.5% < 60 years; 15.2-17.4% 60+ years). In 2016/17, the cost of inpatient hospital care for ankle fractures in England was over £63.1million. If 50% of older patients who had an internal fixation instead had close-contact-casting, we estimate that approximately £1.56million could have been saved.ConclusionsDespite emerging evidence that non-surgical and surgical management achieve equivalent functional outcomes in older patients, the rate of surgical fixation has remained relatively stable over the decade. The health service could achieve substantial savings if a higher proportion of older patients were treated with close-contact-casting, in line with recent evidence.

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Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data.

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