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Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data.

ABSTRACT: Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,010,819 beneficiaries received a prescription of oseltamivir, ranging from 45,888 in 2011-2012 to 380,745 in 2014-2015. For each season, the peak weekly number of prescriptions correlated with the total number of prescriptions (Pearson's r ≥ 0.88). The variance in peak timing decreased with increasing severity (p < 0.0001). Among these 579 CBSAs, neither peak timing, nor relative timing, nor severity of influenza seasons showed evidence of spatial autocorrelation (0.02 ≤ Moran's I ≤ 0.23). After aggregating data to the state level, agreement between the seasonal severity at the CBSA level and the state level was fair (median Cohen's weighted κ = 0.32, interquartile range = 0.26-0.39). Based on seasonal severity, relative timing, and geographic place, we used hierarchical agglomerative clustering to join CBSAs into influenza zones for each season. Seasonal maps of influenza zones showed no obvious patterns that might assist in predicting influenza zones for future seasons. Because of the large number of prescriptions, these data may be especially useful for characterizing influenza activity and geographic distribution during low severity seasons, when other data sources measuring influenza activity are likely to be sparse.

SUBMITTER: Dahlgren FS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6519085 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveThere have been no validated Medicare claims-based algorithms available to identify epilepsy by discrete etiology of stroke (e.g., post-stroke epilepsy, PSE) in community-dwelling elderly individuals, despite the increasing availability of large datasets. Our objective was to validate algorithms that detect which patients have true PSE.MethodsWe linked electronic health records (EHR) to Medicare claims from a Medicare Pioneer Accountable Care Organization (ACO) to identify PSE. A neurologist reviewed 01/2012-12/2014 EHR data from a stratified sample of Medicare patients aged 65+ years to adjudicate a reference-standard to develop an algorithm for identifying patients with PSE. Patient sampling strata included those with: A) epilepsy-related claims diagnosis (n = 534 [all]); B) no diagnosis but neurologist visit (n = 500 [randomly sampled from 4346]); C) all others (n = 500 [randomly sampled from 16,065]). We reconstructed the full sample using inverse probability sampling weights; then used half to derive algorithms and assess performance, and the remainder to confirm performance. We evaluated predictive performance across several measures, e.g., specificity, sensitivity, negative and positive predictive values (NPV, PPV). We selected our best performing algorithms based on the greatest specificity and sensitivity.ResultsOf 20,943 patients in the reconstructed sample, 13.6% of patients with epilepsy had reference-standard PSE diagnosis, which represents a 3-year overall prevalence of 0.28% or 28/10,000, and a prevalence within the subpopulation with stroke of 3%. The best algorithm included three conditions: (a) at least one cerebrovascular claim AND one epilepsy-specific anticonvulsant OR (b) at least one cerebrovascular claim AND one electroencephalography claim (specificity 100.0% [95% CI 99.9%-100.0%], NPV 98.8% [98.6%-99.0%], sensitivity 20.6% [95% CI 14.6%-27.9%], PPV 86.5% [95% CI 71.2%-95.5%]).ConclusionMedicare claims can identify elderly Medicare beneficiaries with PSE with high accuracy. Future epidemiological surveillance of epilepsy could incorporate similar algorithms to accurately identify epilepsy by varying etiologies.

Project description:BackgroundThe United States is undergoing a crippling opioid epidemic, spurred in part by overuse of prescription opioids by adults 25 to 64 years of age. Of concern are long-duration and high-dose initial prescriptions, which place the patients and their friends and relatives at heightened risk for long-term opioid use, misuse, overdose, and death.MethodsWe estimated the incidence of initial opioid prescriptions in each month between July 2012 and December 2017 using administrative-claims data from across the United States (accessed through Blue Cross-Blue Shield [BCBS] Axis); monthly incidence was estimated as the percentage of enrollees who received an initial opioid prescription among those who had not used opioids (i.e., no opioid prescription or a diagnosis of opioid use disorder in the 6 months before a given month). We then estimated the percentage of enrollees initiating opioid therapy who received a long-duration or high-dose initial opioid prescription in each month during this period. We also calculated the number of providers who initiated opioid therapy in any patient who had not used opioids in each month and examined monthly trends in the duration and dose of initial opioid prescriptions in prescriber and patient subgroups. Our study sample included 63,817,512 enrollees who had not used opioids (mean, 15,897,673 per month).ResultsThe monthly incidence of initial opioid prescriptions among enrollees who had not used opioids declined by 54%, from 1.63% in July 2012 to 0.75% in December 2017. This decline was accompanied by a decreasing number of providers (from 114,043 in July 2012 to 80,462 in December 2017) who initiated opioid therapy in any patient who had not used opioids. Nonetheless, among the shrinking subgroup of physicians who initiated opioid therapy in such patients, high-risk prescribing (i.e., prescriptions for more than a 3-day supply or for a dose of 50 morphine milligram equivalents per day or higher) persisted at a monthly rate of 115,378 prescriptions per 15,897,673 enrollees who had not used opioids.ConclusionsAs the opioid crisis progressed between July 2012 and December 2017, many providers stopped initiating opioid therapy. Although the number of initial opioid prescriptions declined, a subgroup of providers continued to write high-risk initial opioid prescriptions. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and a gift from Owen and Linda Robinson.).

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Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data.

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