Dataset Information

Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Over the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China.

Methods

A time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number of mumps cases from 1990 to 2012 in Beijing was performed. First, correlations between meteorological variables and the number of mumps cases were assessed. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was then constructed to predict mumps cases.

Results

Mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed were significantly associated with mumps incidence. After constructing the SARIMAX model, mean temperature at lag 0 (??=?0.016, p?12 with temperature at lag 0 was the best predictive construct.

Conclusions

The incidence of mumps in Beijing from 1990 to 2012 was significantly correlated with meteorological variables. Combining meteorological variables, a predictive SARIMAX model that could be used to preemptively estimate the incidence of mumps in Beijing was established.

SUBMITTER: Hao Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6525345 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.

Hao Yu Y Wang Ran-Ran RR Han Ling L Wang Hong H Zhang Xuan X Tang Qiao-Ling QL Yan Long L He Juan J

BMC infectious diseases 20190517 1

<h4>Background</h4>Over the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China.<h4>Methods</h4>A time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number ...[more]

PMID: 31101079

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAssociations between air temperature and mortality have been consistently observed in Europe and the United States; however, there is a lack of studies for Asian countries. Our study investigated the association between air temperature and cardio-respiratory mortality in the urban area of Beijing, China.MethodsDeath counts for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases for adult residents (?15 years), meteorological parameters and concentrations of particulate air pollution were obtained from January 2003 to August 2005. The effects of two-day and 15-day average temperatures were estimated by Poisson regression models, controlling for time trend, relative humidity and other confounders if necessary. Effects were explored for warm (April to September) and cold periods (October to March) separately. The lagged effects of daily temperature were investigated by polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models.ResultsWe observed a J-shaped exposure-response function only for 15-day average temperature and respiratory mortality in the warm period, with 21.3°C as the threshold temperature. All other exposure-response functions could be considered as linear. In the warm period, a 5°C increase of two-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.098 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.057-1.140) for cardiovascular and 1.134 (95%CI: 1.050-1.224) for respiratory mortality; a 5°C decrease of 15-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.040 (95%CI: 0.990-1.093) for cardiovascular mortality. In the cold period, a 5°C increase of two-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.149 (95%CI: 1.078-1.224) for respiratory mortality; a 5°C decrease of 15-day average temperature was associated with a RR of 1.057 (95%CI: 1.022-1.094) for cardiovascular mortality. The effects remained robust after considering particles as additional confounders.ConclusionsBoth increases and decreases in air temperature are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. The effects of heat were immediate while the ones of cold became predominant with longer time lags. Increases in air temperature are also associated with an immediate increased risk of respiratory mortality.

Dataset Information

Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.

Similar Datasets

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