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Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.

ABSTRACT: Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species' future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population's adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

SUBMITTER: Razgour O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6535011 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.

Razgour Orly O Forester Brenna B Taggart John B JB Bekaert Michaël M Juste Javier J Ibáñez Carlos C Puechmaille Sébastien J SJ Novella-Fernandez Roberto R Alberdi Antton A Manel Stéphanie S

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20190506 21

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change ...[more]

PMID: 31061126

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Project description:A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community's exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard's impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity.MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped.ResultsTwo hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16-49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed - for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region.ConclusionsThe creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

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Project description:Background and aimsUnderstanding adaptive genetic variation and whether it can keep pace with predicted future climate change is critical in assessing the genetic vulnerability of species and developing conservation management strategies. The lack of information on adaptive genetic variation in relict species carrying abundant genetic resources hinders the assessment of genetic vulnerability. Using a landscape genomics approach, this study aimed to determine how adaptive genetic variation shapes population divergence and to predict the adaptive potential of Pterocarya macroptera (a vulnerable relict species in China) under future climate scenarios.MethodsWe applied restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to obtain 8244 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 160 individuals across 28 populations. We examined the pattern of genetic diversity and divergence, and then identified outliers by genetic differentiation (FST) and genotype-environment association (GEA) methods. We further dissected the effect of geographical/environmental gradients on genetic variation. Finally, we predicted genetic vulnerability and adaptive risk under future climate scenarios.Key resultsWe identified three genetic lineages within P. macroptera: the Qinling-Daba-Tianmu Mountains (QDT), Western Sichuan (WS) and Northwest Yunnan (NWY) lineages, which showed significant signals of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). IBD and IBE explained 3.7-5.7 and 8.6-12.8 % of the genetic structure, respectively. The identified GEA SNP-related genes were involved in chemical defence and gene regulation and may exhibit higher genetic variation to adapt to the environment. Gradient forest analysis revealed that the genetic variation was mainly shaped by temperature-related variables, indicating its adaptation to local thermal environments. A limited adaptive potential was suggested by the high levels of genetic vulnerability in marginal populations.ConclusionsEnvironmental gradient mainly shaped the population differentiation of P. macroptera. Marginal populations may be at high risk of extinction, and thus proactive management measures, such as assisted gene flow, are required to ensure the survival of these populations.

Dataset Information

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.

Publications

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections.

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