Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Guerra CA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6536527 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island.
Guerra Carlos A CA Kang Su Yun SY Citron Daniel T DT Hergott Dianna E B DEB Perry Megan M Smith Jordan J Phiri Wonder P WP Osá Nfumu José O JO Mba Eyono Jeremías N JN Battle Katherine E KE Gibson Harry S HS García Guillermo A GA Smith David L DL
Nature communications 20190527 1
Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection amon ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundMalaria elimination is the goal for Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Intensive interventions implemented since 2004 have reduced prevalence, but progress has stalled in recent years. A challenge for elimination has been malaria infections in residents acquired during travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea. The present article quantifies how off-island contributes to remaining malaria prevalence on Bioko Island, and investigates the potential role of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine in making further progress towards elimination.MethodsMalaria transmission on Bioko Island was simulated using a model calibrated based on data from the Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) from 2015 to 2018, including detailed travel histories and malaria positivity by rapid-diagnostic tests (RDTs), as well as geospatial estimates of malaria prevalence. Mosquito population density was adjusted to fit local transmission, conditional on importation rates under current levels of control and within-island mobility. The simulations were then used to evaluate the impact of two pre-erythrocytic vaccine distribution strategies: mass treat and vaccinate, and prophylactic vaccination for off-island travellers. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis was performed through an ensemble of simulations fit to the Bayesian joint posterior probability distribution of the geospatial prevalence estimates.ResultsThe simulations suggest that in Malabo, an urban city containing 80% of the population, there are some pockets of residual transmission, but a large proportion of infections are acquired off-island by travellers to the mainland. Outside of Malabo, prevalence was mainly attributable to local transmission. The uncertainty in the local transmission vs. importation is lowest within Malabo and highest outside. Using a pre-erythrocytic vaccine to protect travellers would have larger benefits than using the vaccine to protect residents of Bioko Island from local transmission. In simulations, mass treatment and vaccination had short-lived benefits, as malaria prevalence returned to current levels as the vaccine's efficacy waned. Prophylactic vaccination of travellers resulted in longer-lasting reductions in prevalence. These projections were robust to underlying uncertainty in prevalence estimates.ConclusionsThe modelled outcomes suggest that the volume of malaria cases imported from the mainland is a partial driver of continued endemic malaria on Bioko Island, and that continued elimination efforts on must account for human travel activity.
| S-EPMC8404405 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMalaria can be transmitted by blood transfusion from human to human and it is responsible for the majority of transfusion-transmitted infectious diseases worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, it had been estimated that almost a quarter of blood donations contain malaria parasites. Since rapid diagnostic tests and thick blood smear microscopy lack sensitivity for low density parasitaemia, particularly in asymptomatic adults, the most reliable method to assess the problem of transfusion-transmitted malaria are nucleic acid-based molecular approaches such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of sub-microscopic malaria parasite infection among blood donors in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea.MethodsBetween July and August 2017, a total of 200 individual blood samples from blood donors at the Malabo Blood Bank were collected and screened by rapid diagnostic tests and thick blood smear microscopy. Retrospectively, the same samples were analysed for the presence of undetected, low-density malaria parasites using quantitative polymerase chain reaction.ResultsIn comparison to 6.5% (13/200) by rapid diagnostic test and 2.0% (4/200) by microscopy, the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum positive blood donations analysed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction was significantly higher (26%, 52/200). Densities of P. falciparum positive blood donations were ranging from 0.06 to 3707.0 parasites/µL with 79.6% below 100 parasites/µL and therefore not detectable by non-molecular malaria diagnostic tests. qPCR based species identification revealed that P. falciparum was the dominating species responsible for 88.1% (52/59) of positive blood donations, followed by Plasmodium malariae (15.3%, 9/59) and Plasmodium ovale (3.4%, 2/59).ConclusionsThis study confirms that in malaria endemic settings, sub-patent malaria infections among blood donors are prevalent. In blood collected from healthy donors living in Malabo, P. falciparum, P. malariae and P. ovale parasites were identified. Currently widely used malaria diagnostic tools have missed more than 75% of P. falciparum containing blood donations, demonstrating the value of quantitative polymerase chain reaction to reliably detect low density P. falciparum infections. Since the availability of molecular diagnostic methods in malaria endemic countries is still limited, the blood recipients living in malaria endemic countries should be treated following WHO recommendations.
| S-EPMC6332537 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe human biting rate (HBR), an important parameter for assessing malaria transmission and evaluating vector control interventions, is commonly estimated by human landing collections (HLC). Although intense efforts have been made to find alternative non-exposure mosquito collection methods, HLC remains the standard for providing reliable and consistent HBRs. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between human landing and light trap collections (LTC), in an attempt to estimate operationally feasible conversion factors between the two. The study was conducted as part of the operational research component of the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP), Equatorial Guinea.MethodsMalaria mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors by HLCs and LTCs in three villages on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea during five bimonthly collections in 2009. Indoor light traps were suspended adjacent to occupied long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets. Outdoor light traps were placed close to the outer wall under the roof of the collection house. Collected specimens were subjected to DNA extraction and diagnostic PCR to identify species within the Anopheles gambiae complex. Data were analysed by simple regression of log-transformed values and by Bayesian regression analysis.ResultsThere was a poor correlation between the two collection methods. Results varied by location, venue, month, house, but also by the statistical method used. The more robust Bayesian analyses indicated non-linear relationships and relative sampling efficiencies being density dependent for the indoor collections, implying that straight-forward and simple conversion factors could not be calculated for any of the locations. Outdoor LTC:HLC relationships were weak, but could be estimated at 0.10 and 0.07 for each of two locations.ConclusionsLight trap collections in combination with bed nets are not recommended as a reliable method to assess human biting rates on Bioko Island. Different statistical analyses methods give variable and inconsistent results. Substantial variation in collection methods prevents the determination of reliable and operationally feasible conversion factors for both indoor and outdoor data. Until improved mosquito collection methods are developed that can provide reliable and unbiased HBR estimates, HLCs should continue to serve as the reference method for HBR estimation.
| S-EPMC3384454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.MethodsThis study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year.ResultsMalaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year.ConclusionsMalaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.
| S-EPMC9979414 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC3944859 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Public health interventions require evidence-based decision-making to maximize impact. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to collect, store, process and analyze data to generate knowledge and inform decisions. This paper discusses how the use of a SDSS, the Campaign Information Management System (CIMS), to support malaria control operations on Bioko Island has impacted key process indicators of indoor residual spraying (IRS): coverage, operational efficiency and productivity. We used data from the last five annual IRS rounds (2017 to 2021) to estimate these indicators. IRS coverage was calculated as the percentage of houses sprayed per unit area, represented by 100x100 m map-sectors. Optimal coverage was defined as between 80% and 85%, and under and overspraying as coverage below 80% and above 85%, respectively. Operational efficiency was defined as the fraction of map-sectors that achieved optimal coverage. Daily productivity was expressed as the number of houses sprayed per sprayer per day (h/s/d). These indicators were compared across the five rounds. Overall IRS coverage (i.e. percent of total houses sprayed against the overall denominator by round) was highest in 2017 (80.2%), yet this round showed the largest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (36.0%). Conversely, despite producing a lower overall coverage (77.5%), the 2021 round showed the highest operational efficiency (37.7%) and the lowest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (18.7%). In 2021, higher operational efficiency was also accompanied by marginally higher productivity. Productivity ranged from 3.3 h/s/d in 2020 to 3.9 h/s/d in 2021 (median 3.6 h/s/d). Our findings showed that the novel approach to data collection and processing proposed by the CIMS has significantly improved the operational efficiency of IRS on Bioko. High spatial granularity during planning and deployment together with closer follow-up of field teams using real-time data supported more homogeneous delivery of optimal coverage while sustaining high productivity.
| S-EPMC9931250 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Onchocerciasis or "river blindness" is a chronic parasitic neglected tropical disease which is endemic both in mainland and insular Equatorial Guinea. We aim to estimate the current epidemiological situation of onchocerciasis in Bioko Island after vector elimination in 2005 and more than sixteen years of Community Directed Treatment with Ivermectin (CDTI) by using molecular and serological approaches for onchocerciasis diagnosis. A community-based cross-sectional study was carried out in Bioko Island from mid-January to mid-February 2014. A total of 544 study participants were recruited. A complete dermatological examination was performed and three skin snips were performed in every participant for parasitological and molecular assessments. Blood spots were also taken for determination of Ov16 IgG4 antibodies trough an "in-house" ELISA assay. Overall, we found 15 out of 522 individuals suffering any onchocerciasis specific cutaneous lesions and 16 out of 528 (3.0%) with onchocercal nodules in the skin. Nodules were significantly associated with age, being more common in subjects older than 10 years than in younger people (3.9% vs. 0%, p = 0.029). Regarding the onchocerciasis laboratory assessment, no positive parasitological test for microfilaria detection was found in the skin snips. The calculated seroprevalence through IgG4 serology was 7.9%. No children less than 10 years old were found to be positive for this test. Only one case was positive for Onchocerca volvulus (O. volvulus) after skin PCR. The present study points out that the on-going mass ivermectin treatment has been effective in reducing the prevalence of onchocerciasis and corroborates the interruption of transmission in Bioko Island. To our knowledge, this is the first time that accurate information through molecular and serological techniques is generated to estimate the onchocerciasis prevalence in this zone. Sustained support from the national program and appropriate communication and health education strategies to reinforce participation in CDTI activities are essential to ensure progress towards onchocerciasis elimination in the country.
| S-EPMC4957785 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGeospatial datasets of population are becoming more common in models used for health policy. Publicly-available maps of human population make a consistent picture from inconsistent census data, and the techniques they use to impute data makes each population map unique. Each mapping model explains its methods, but it can be difficult to know which map is appropriate for which policy work. High quality census datasets, where available, are a unique opportunity to characterize maps by comparing them with truth.MethodsWe use census data from a bed-net mass-distribution campaign on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, conducted by the Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Program as a gold standard to evaluate LandScan (LS), WorldPop Constrained (WP-C) and WorldPop Unconstrained (WP-U), Gridded Population of the World (GPW), and the High-Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). Each layer is compared to the gold-standard using statistical measures to evaluate distribution, error, and bias. We investigated how map choice affects burden estimates from a malaria prevalence model.ResultsSpecific population layers were able to match the gold-standard distribution at different population densities. LandScan was able to most accurately capture highly urban distribution, HRSL and WP-C matched best at all other lower population densities. GPW and WP-U performed poorly everywhere. Correctly capturing empty pixels is key, and smaller pixel sizes (100 m vs 1 km) improve this. Normalizing areas based on known district populations increased performance. The use of differing population layers in a malaria model showed a disparity in results around transition points between endemicity levels.DiscussionThe metrics in this paper, some of them novel in this context, characterize how these population maps differ from the gold standard census and from each other. We show that the metrics help understand the performance of a population map within a malaria model. The closest match to the census data would combine LandScan within urban areas and the HRSL for rural areas. Researchers should prefer particular maps if health calculations have a strong dependency on knowing where people are not, or if it is important to categorize variation in density within a city.
| S-EPMC8409626 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Sustaining high levels of indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage (≥85%) for community protection against malaria remains a challenge for IRS campaigns. We examined biting rates and insecticide resistance in Culex species and Anopheles gambiae s.l., and their potential effect on community adherence to IRS. The average IRS coverage in urban Malabo between 2015 and 2017 remained at 80%. Culex biting rate increased 6.0-fold (P < 0.001) between 2014 and 2017, reaching 8.08 bites per person per night, whereas that of An. gambiae s.l. remained steady at around 0.68. Although An. gambiae s.l. was susceptible to carbamates and organophosphates insecticides, Culex spp. were phenotypically resistant to all four main classes of WHO-recommended IRS insecticides. Similarly, the residual activity of the organophosphate insecticide used since 2017, ACTELLIC 300CS, was 8 mo for An. gambiae s.l., but was almost absent against Culex for 2 mo post-spray. A survey conducted in 2018 within urban Malabo indicated that 77.0% of respondents related IRS as means of protection against mosquito bites, but only 3.2% knew that only Anopheles mosquitoes transmit malaria. Therefore, the increasing biting rates of culicines in urban Malabo, and their resistance to all IRS insecticides, is raising concern that a growing number of people may refuse to participate in IRS as result of its perceived failure in controlling mosquitoes. Although this is not yet the case on Bioko Island, communication strategies need refining to sensitize communities about the effectiveness of IRS in controlling malaria vectors in the midst of insecticide resistance in nonmalaria vector mosquitoes.
| S-EPMC7182914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the patterns of mobility of individuals is crucial for a number of reasons, from city planning to disaster management. There are two common ways of quantifying the amount of travel between locations: by direct observations that often involve privacy issues, e.g., tracking mobile phone locations, or by estimations from models. Typically, such models build on accurate knowledge of the population size at each location. However, when this information is not readily available, their applicability is rather limited. As mobile phones are ubiquitous, our aim is to investigate if mobility patterns can be inferred from aggregated mobile phone call data alone. Using data released by Orange for Ivory Coast, we show that human mobility is well predicted by a simple model based on the frequency of mobile phone calls between two locations and their geographical distance. We argue that the strength of the model comes from directly incorporating the social dimension of mobility. Furthermore, as only aggregated call data is required, the model helps to avoid potential privacy problems.
| S-EPMC4141257 | biostudies-other