Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015-2016.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Martinez-Bello DA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6537708 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveGeographical information systems (GIS) have been extensively used for the development of epidemiological maps of tropical diseases, however not yet specifically for Zika virus (ZIKV) infection.MethodsSurveillance case data of the ongoing epidemics of ZIKV in the Tolima department, Colombia (2015-2016) were used to estimate cumulative incidence rates (cases/100,000 pop.) to develop the first maps in the department and its municipalities, including detail for the capital, Ibagué. The GIS software used was Kosmo Desktop 3.0RC1®. Two thematic maps were developed according to municipality and communes incidence rates.ResultsUp to March 5, 2016, 4,094 cases of ZIKV were reported in Tolima, for cumulated rates of 289.9 cases/100,000 pop. (7.95% of the country). Burden of ZIKV infection has been concentrated in its east area, where municipalities have reported >500 cases/100,000 pop. These municipalities are bordered by two other departments, Cundinamarca (3,778 cases) and Huila (5,338 cases), which also have high incidences of ZIKV infection. Seven municipalities of Tolima ranged from 250-499.99 cases/100,000 pop., of this group five border with high incidence municipalities (>250), including the capital, where almost half of the reported cases of ZIKV in Tolima are concentrated.ConclusionsUse of GIS-based epidemiological maps helps to guide decisions for the prevention and control of diseases that represent significant issues in the region and the country, but also in emerging conditions such as ZIKV.
| S-EPMC4837980 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, the impact of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic of 2015-2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is driving research to understand the emergence and spread of ZIKV. To support that research, we assembled a data set of key covariates for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics in Colombia, where ZIKV transmission was widespread and the government made incidence data publically available. On a weekly basis between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2016 at three administrative levels, we collated spatiotemporal Zika incidence data, nine environmental variables, and demographic data into a single downloadable database. These new datasets and those we identified, processed, and assembled at comparable spatial and temporal resolutions will save future researchers considerable time and effort in performing these data processing steps, enabling them to focus instead on extracting epidemiological insights from this important data set. Similar approaches could prove useful for filling data gaps to enable epidemiological analyses of future disease emergence events.
| S-EPMC5914286 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue is a high incidence arboviral disease in tropical countries around the world. Colombia is an endemic country due to the favourable environmental conditions for vector survival and spread. Dengue surveillance in Colombia is based in passive notification of cases, supporting monitoring, prediction, risk factor identification and intervention measures. Even though the surveillance network works adequately, disease mapping techniques currently developed and employed for many health problems are not widely applied. We select the Colombian city of Bucaramanga to apply Bayesian areal disease mapping models, testing the challenges and difficulties of the approach.MethodsWe estimated the relative risk of dengue disease by census section (a geographical unit composed approximately by 1-20 city blocks) for the period January 2008 to December 2015. We included the covariates normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST), obtained by satellite images. We fitted Bayesian areal models at the complete period and annual aggregation time scales for 2008-2015, with fixed and space-varying coefficients for the covariates, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we used Cohen's Kappa agreement measures to compare the risk from year to year, and from every year to the complete period aggregation.ResultsWe found the NDVI providing more information than LST for estimating relative risk of dengue, although their effects were small. NDVI was directly associated to high relative risk of dengue. Risk maps of dengue were produced from the estimates obtained by the modeling process. The year to year risk agreement by census section was sligth to fair.ConclusionThe study provides an example of implementation of relative risk estimation using Bayesian models for disease mapping at small spatial scale with covariates. We relate satellite data to dengue disease, using an areal data approach, which is not commonly found in the literature. The main difficulty of the study was to find quality data for generating expected values as input for the models. We remark the importance of creating population registry at small spatial scale, which is not only relevant for the risk estimation of dengue but also important to the surveillance of all notifiable diseases.
| S-EPMC5558735 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) can be transmitted sexually but the risk of sexual transmission remains unknown. Most evidence of sexual transmission is from partners of infected travelers returning from areas with ZIKV circulation.MethodsWe used data from the US national arboviral disease surveillance system on travel- and sexually acquired ZIKV disease cases during 2016-2017 to develop individual-level simulations for estimating risk of male-to-female, male-to-male, and female-to-male sexual transmission of ZIKV via vaginal and/or anal intercourse. We specified parametric distributions to characterize individual-level variability of parameters for ZIKV persistence and sexual behaviors.ResultsUsing ZIKV RNA persistence in semen/vaginal fluids to approximate infectiousness duration, male-to-male transmission had the highest estimated probability (1.3% [95% confidence interval, CI, .4%-6.0%] per anal sex act), followed by male-to-female and female-to-male transmission (0.4% [95% CI, .3%-.6%] per vaginal/anal sex act and 0.1% [95% CI, 0%-.8%] per vaginal sex act, respectively). Models using viral isolation in semen vs RNA detection to approximate infectiousness duration predicted greater risk of sexual transmission.ConclusionsWhile likely insufficient to maintain sustained transmission, the estimated risk of ZIKV transmission through unprotected sex is not trivial and is especially important for pregnant women, as ZIKV infection can cause severe congenital disorders.
| S-EPMC10015296 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p?<?0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.
| S-EPMC5124348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To explore the perceptions and experiences of pregnant women in accessing healthcare services during the epidemic in Colombia during 2015-2016. METHODS:A qualitative study using semistructured interviews was conducted in Villavicencio. Six women who had been diagnosed with Zika virus infection during their pregnancies and whose fetus had suspected microcephaly participated in the investigation. Grounded theory was used and thematic content analysis was made for each category identified. RESULTS:Three main themes affecting access to healthcare services were identified: (1) women knew basic information about the virus, but it was limited; (2) access to services was delayed due to their lack of availability or limited supply in the municipality; and (3) most of the participants made out-of-pocket payments to get access to services that were not provided. CONCLUSIONS:Several gaps were identified in the provision of healthcare services to pregnant women during the Zika epidemic. Policy makers need to utilize the results from affected communities to develop and implement public policies that adapt and respond to their priorities and needs.
| S-EPMC7065052 | biostudies-literature
Project description:After the report of an outbreak of dengue virus serotype 2 in 2014 in Nampula and Pemba cities, northern Mozambique, a surveillance system was established by the National Institute of Health. A study was performed during 2015-2016 to monitor the trend of the outbreak and confirm the circulating serotype of dengue virus (DENV). After the inclusion of consenting patients who met the case definition, samples from 192 patients were tested for the presence of nonstructural protein 1 antigen, and 60/192 (31%) samples were positive. Further analysis included DENV IgM antibodies, with 39 (20%) IgM positive cases. Reverse transcriptase (RT) PCR was performed for identification of the prevailing DENV serotype; 21/23 tested samples were DENV-2 positive, with DENV-2 present in both affected cities. When sequencing DENV, phenotype Cosmopolitan was identified. The surveillance indicates ongoing spread of DENV-2 in northern Mozambique 2 years after the first report of the outbreak.
| S-EPMC5817774 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Zika virus is an emerging arbovirus transmitted by Aedes sp. mosquitoes like the Dengue and Chikungunya viruses. Zika virus was until recently considered a mild pathogenic mosquito-borne flavivirus with very few reported benign human infections. In 2007, an epidemic in Micronesia initiated the turnover in the epidemiological history of Zika virus and more recently, the potential association with congenital microcephaly cases in Brazil 2015, still under investigation, led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on February 1, 2016. Here, we present the clinical and laboratory aspects related to the first four imported human cases of Zika virus in Portugal from Brazil, and alert, regarding the high level of traveling between Portugal and Brazil, and the ongoing expansion of this virus in the Americas, for the threat for Zika virus introduction in Europe and the possible introduction to Madeira Island where Aedes aegypti is present.
| S-EPMC4833829 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During 2015-2016, Cape Verde, an island nation off the coast of West Africa, experienced a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak involving 7,580 suspected Zika cases and 18 microcephaly cases. Analysis of the complete genomes of 3 ZIKV isolates from the outbreak indicated the strain was of the Asian (not African) lineage. The Cape Verde ZIKV sequences formed a distinct monophylogenetic group and possessed 1-2 (T659A, I756V) unique amino acid changes in the envelope protein. Phylogeographic and serologic evidence support earlier introduction of this lineage into Cape Verde, possibly from northeast Brazil, between June 2014 and August 2015, suggesting cryptic circulation of the virus before the initial wave of cases were detected in October 2015. These findings underscore the utility of genomic-scale epidemiology for outbreak investigations.
| S-EPMC7258482 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) is an important flavivirus infection. Although ZIKV infection is rarely fatal, risk for severe disease in adults is not well described. Our objective was to describe the spectrum of illness in U.S. Veterans with ZIKV infection.MethodologyCase series study including patients with laboratory-confirmed or presumed positive ZIKV infection in all Veterans Health Administration (VHA) medical centers. Adjusted odds ratios of clinical variables associated with hospitalization and neurologic complications was performed.Principal findingsOf 1,538 patients tested between 12/2015-10/2016 and observed through 3/2017, 736 (48%) were RT-PCR or confirmed IgM positive; 655 (89%) were male, and 683 (93%) from VA Caribbean Healthcare System (VACHCS). Ninety-four (13%) were hospitalized, 91 (12%) in the VACHCS. Nineteen (3%) died after ZIKV infection. Hospitalization was associated with increased Charlson co-morbidity index (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.3), underlying connective tissue disease (OR, 29.5; CI, 3.6-244.7), congestive heart failure (OR, 6; CI, 2-18.5), dementia (OR, 3.6; CI, 1.1-11.2), neurologic symptom presentation (OR, 3.9; CI, 1.7-9.2), leukocytosis (OR, 11.8; CI, 4.5-31), thrombocytopenia (OR, 7.8; CI, 3.3-18.6), acute kidney injury (OR, 28.9; CI, 5.8-145.1), or using glucocorticoids within 30 days of testing (OR, 13.3; CI 1.3-133). Patients presenting with rash were less likely to be hospitalized (OR, 0.29; CI, 0.13-0.66). Risk for neurologic complications increased with hospitalization (OR, 5.9; CI 2.9-12.2), cerebrovascular disease (OR 4.9; CI 1.7-14.4), and dementia (OR 2.8; CI 1.2-6.6).ConclusionOlder Veterans with multiple comorbidities or presenting with neurologic symptoms were at increased risk for hospitalization and neurological complications after ZIKV infection.
| S-EPMC5967711 | biostudies-literature