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Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS). DESIGN:A retrospective cohort study. SETTING:Two secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China. PARTICIPANTS:Inclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ?18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with any of the following were excluded from the study: preterm labour (gestational age <37 weeks), two or more CSs, contradictions for vaginal birth, history of other uterine incision such as myomectomy, and incomplete medical records. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:The primary outcome was VBAC, which was retrospectively abstracted from computerised medical records by clinical staff. RESULTS:Of the women who planned for TOLAC, 84.0% (1686/2006) had VBAC. Gestational age, history of vaginal delivery, estimated birth weight, body mass index, spontaneous onset of labour, cervix Bishop score and rupture of membranes were independently associated with VBAC. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) in the training cohort. The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.79). CONCLUSIONS:TOLAC may be a potential strategy for decreasing the CS rate in China. The validated nomogram to predict success of VBAC could be a potential tool for VBAC counselling.

SUBMITTER: Li YX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6538023 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China.

Li Yun-Xiu YX Bai Zhi Z Long Da-Jian DJ Wang Hai-Bo HB Wu Yang-Feng YF Reilly Kathleen H KH Huang Su-Ran SR Ji Yan-Jie YJ

BMJ open 20190524 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS).<h4>Design</h4>A retrospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Two secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China.<h4>Participants</h4>Inclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ≥18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with ...[more]

PMID: 31129593

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Project description:BackgroundThe OptiBIRTH study incorporates a multicentre cluster randomised trial in 15 hospital sites across three European countries. The trial was designed to test a complex intervention aimed at improving vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) rates through increasing women's involvement in their care. Prior to developing a robust standardised model to conduct the health economic analysis, an analysis of a hypothetical cohort was performed to estimate the costs and health effects of VBAC compared to elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) for low-risk women in four European countries.MethodsA decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the costs and the health effects, measured using Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), of VBAC compared with ERCD. A cost-effectiveness analysis for the period from confirmation of pregnancy to 6 weeks postpartum was performed for short-term consequences and during lifetime for long-term consequences, based on a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 pregnant women in each of four different countries; Belgium, Germany, Ireland and Italy. A societal perspective was adopted. Where possible, transition probabilities, costs and health effects were adapted from national data obtained from the respective countries. Country-specific thresholds were used to determine the cost-effectiveness of VBAC compared to ERCD. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the uncertainty of model assumptions.ResultsWithin a 6-week time horizon, VBAC resulted in a reduction in costs, ranging from €3,334,052 (Germany) to €66,162,379 (Ireland), and gains in QALYs ranging from 6399 (Italy) to 7561 (Germany) per 100,000 women birthing in each country. Compared to ERCD, VBAC is the dominant strategy in all four countries. Applying a lifetime horizon, VBAC is dominant compared to ERCD in all countries except for Germany (probabilistic analysis, ICER: €8609/QALY). In conclusion, compared to ERCD, VBAC remains cost-effective when using a lifetime time.ConclusionsIn all four countries, VBAC was cost-effective compared to ERCD for low-risk women. This is important for health service managers, economists and policy makers concerned with maximising health benefits within limited and constrained resources.

Project description:IntroductionWith the wide adoption of the two-child policy in China since 2016, a large percentage of women with a history of caesarean delivery plan to have a second child. Accordingly, the rate of vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) delivery is increasing. Women attempting repeat VBAC may experience multiple morbidities, which is also one of the leading causes of maternal and perinatal mortality. However, it remains to be addressed how we evaluate factors for successful VBAC. This study aims to use a novel approach to identify a set of potential predictive factors for successful VBAC, especially for Chinese women, to be included in prediction models which can be most applicable to pregnant women in China. We plan to assess all potential predictive factors collected through a comprehensive literature review. Then the certainty of the evidence for the identified potential predictive factors will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation process. Finally, a two-round international Delphi survey will be conducted to determine the level of consensus.Methods and analysisThis study will apply a methodology through an evidence-based approach. A long list of potential predictive factors for successful VBAC will be extracted and identified through the following stages: First, an up-to-date systematic review of the published literature will be conducted to extract identified potential predictive factors for successful VBAC. Second, an online Delphi survey will be performed to achieve expert consensus on which factors should be included in future prediction models. The online questionnaires will be developed in the field of patient, maternal and fetal-related factors. A two-round international Delphi survey will be distributed to the expert panel in the field of perinatal medicine using Google Forms. Experts will be asked to score each factor using the 9-point Likert rating scale to establish potential predictive factors for the successful VBAC. The expert panel will determine on whether to include, potentially include or exclude predictive factors, based on a systematic review of clinical evidence and the Delphi method.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Jiaxing Maternity and Children Healthcare Hospital (approval number: 2019-79). The results of this study will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals or conferences in perinatal medicine or obstetrics.

Project description:BackgroundThe rates of caesarean section (CS) are increasing globally. CS rates are one of the most frequently used indicators of health care quality. Vaginal Birth After Caesarean (VBAC) could be considered a reasonable and safe option for most women with a previous CS. Despite this fact, in some European countries, many women who had a previous CS will have a routine CS subsequently and VBAC rates are extremely variable across countries. VBAC use is inversely related to caesarean use. The objective of the present study was to analyze VBAC rates with respect to caesarean rates and the variations among areas of residence, hospitals and hospital ownership types in Italy.MethodsThis study was based on information from the Hospital Information System (HIS). We collected data from all deliveries in Italy from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014 and we considered only deliveries with a previous caesarean section. Applying multivariate logistic regression analysis, the adjusted proportions of VBAC for each Local Health Units (LHU), each hospital and by hospital ownership types were calculated. Cross-classified logistic multilevel models were performed to analyze within geographic, hospitals and hospital ownership types variations.ResultsWe studied a total of 77,850 deliveries with a previous caesarean section in Italy between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014. The proportion of VBAC in Italy slightly increased in the last few years, from 5.8% in 2010 to 7.5% in 2014. Proportions of VBAC ranged from 0.29 to 50.05% in Italian LHUs. The LHUs with lower proportions of VBAC deliveries were characterized by higher values for primary caesarean deliveries. Private hospitals showed the lowest mean of crude VBAC proportions but the highest variation among hospitals, ranging from 0 to 47.1%.ConclusionsHospital rates of caesarean section for women with at least one previous caesarean section vary widely, and only some of the variation can be explained by case-mix and hospital-level factors, suggesting that additional factors influence practices. Identifying disparities in VBAC may have important implications for health services planning and targeted efforts to reduce overall rates of caesarean deliveries.

Project description:PURPOSE: To determine the maternal and fetal outcomes of successful external cephalic version (ECV) as well as factors predicting vaginal birth. METHODS: The ECV data over a period of three years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre (UKMMC) between 1 September 2008 and 30 September 2010 was reviewed. Sixty-seven patients who had successful ECV were studied and reviewed for maternal, fetal, and labour outcomes. The control group comprised patients with cephalic singletons of matching parity who delivered following the index cases. RESULTS: The mean gestational age at ECV was 263 ± 6.52 days (37.5 weeks ± 6.52 days). Spontaneous labour and transient cardiotocographic (CTG) changes were the commonest early adverse effects following ECV. The reversion rate was 7.46%. The mean gestational age at delivery of the two groups was significantly different (P = 0.000) with 277.9 ± 8.91 days and 269.9 ± 9.68 days in the study group and control groups, respectively. The study group needed significantly more inductions of labour. They required more operative deliveries, had more blood loss at delivery, a higher incidence of meconium-stained liquor, and more cord around the neck. Previous flexed breeches had a threefold increase in caesarean section rate compared to previous extended breeches (44.1% versus 15.2%, P = 0.010). On the contrary, an amniotic fluid index (AFI) of 13 or more is significantly associated with a higher rate of vaginal birth (86.8% versus 48.3%, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with successful ECV were at higher risk of carrying the pregnancy beyond 40 weeks and needing induction of labour, with a higher rate of caesarean section and higher rates of obstetrics complications. Extended breech and AFI 13 or more were significantly more likely to deliver vaginally postsuccessful ECV. This additional information may be useful to caution a patient with breech that ECV does not bring them to behave exactly like a normal cephalic, so that they have more realistic expectations. However, these predictive factors needed further confirmation and hopefully, in the future, they would be able to further enhance counselling prior to ECV.

Dataset Information

Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China.

Publications

Predicting the success of vaginal birth after caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study in China.

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