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Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Although liver disease increases surgical risk, it is not considered in The Society for Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk calculator. This study assessed the impact of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) on outcomes after cardiac surgical procedures and the additional predictive value of MELD in the STS risk model. METHODS:Deidentified records of 21,272 patients were extracted from a regional STS database. Inclusion criteria were any cardiac operation with a risk score available (2011-2016). Exclusion criteria included missing MELD (n = 2,895) or preoperative anticoagulation (n = 144). Patients were stratified into three categories, MELD < 9 (low), MELD 9 to 15 (moderate), and MELD > 15 (high). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression assessed risk-adjusted associations between MELD and operative outcomes. RESULTS:Increasing MELD scores were associated with greater comorbid disease, mitral operation, prior cardiac operation, and higher STS-predicted risk of mortality (1.1%, 2.3%, and 6.0% by MELD category; p < 0.0001). The operative mortality rate increased with increasing MELD score (1.6%, 3.9%, and 8.4%; p < 0.0001). By logistic regression MELD score was an independent predictor of operative mortality (odds ratio, 1.03 per MELD score point; p < 0.0001) as were the components total bilirubin (odds ratio, 1.22 per mg/dL; p = 0.002) and international normalized ratio (odds ratio, 1.40 per unit; p < 0.0001). Finally, MELD score was independently associated with STS major morbidity and the component complications renal failure and stroke. CONCLUSIONS:Increasing MELD score, international normalized ratio, and bilirubin all independently increase risk of operative mortality. Because high rates of missing data currently limit utilization of MELD, efforts to simplify and improve data collection would help improve future risk models.

SUBMITTER: Hawkins RB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6541453 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) predicts events in cirrhotic subjects undergoing major surgery and may offer similar prognostication in left ventricular assist device candidates with comparable degrees of multisystem dysfunction.Methods and resultsPreoperative MELD scores were calculated for subjects enrolled in the University of Michigan Health System (UMHS) mechanical circulatory support database. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to investigate the ability of patient characteristics, laboratory data (including MELD scores), and hemodynamic measurements to predict total perioperative blood product exposure and operative mortality. The ability of preoperative MELD scores to predict operative mortality was evaluated in subjects enrolled in the Interagency Registry of Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS), and results were compared with those from the UMHS cohort. The mean+/-SD MELD scores for the UMHS (n=211) and INTERMACS (n=324) cohorts were 13.7+/-6.1 and 15.2+/-5.8, respectively, with 29 (14%) and 19 (6%) perioperative deaths. In the UMHS cohort, median total perioperative blood product exposure was 74 units (25th and 75th percentiles, 44 and 120 units). Each 5-unit MELD score increase was associated with 15.1+/-3.8 units (beta+/-SE) of total perioperative blood product exposure. Each 10-unit increase in total perioperative blood product exposure increased the odds of operative death (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.10). Odds ratios, measuring the ability of MELD scores to predict perioperative mortality, were 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.0) and 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.1) per 5 MELD units for the UMHS and INTERMACS cohorts, respectively. When MELD scores were dichotomized as >or=17 and <17, risk-adjusted Cox proportional-hazard ratios for 6-month mortality were 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 5.3) and 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.4) for the UMHS and INTERMACS cohorts, respectively.ConclusionsThe MELD score identified left ventricular assist device candidates at high risk for perioperative bleeding and mortality.

Project description:Background & aimsPatients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) have a high risk of death within 90 days. Corticosteroids, which can cause severe adverse events, are the only treatment that increases short-term survival. It is a challenge to predict outcomes of patients with severe AH. Therefore, we developed a scoring system to predict patient survival, integrating baseline molecular and clinical variables.MethodsWe obtained fixed liver biopsy samples from 71 consecutive patients diagnosed with severe AH and treated with corticosteroids from July 2006 through December 2013 in Brussels, Belgium (derivation cohort). Gene expression patterns were analyzed by microarrays and clinical data were collected for 180 days. We identified gene expression signatures and clinical data that are associated with survival without liver transplantation at 90 and 180 days after initiation of corticosteroid therapy. Findings were validated using liver biopsies from 48 consecutive patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids, collected from March 2010 through February 2015 at hospitals in Belgium and Switzerland (validation cohort 1) and in liver biopsies from 20 patients (9 received corticosteroid treatment), collected from January 2012 through May 2015 in the United States (validation cohort 2).ResultsWe integrated data on expression patterns of 123 genes and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores to assign patients to groups with poor survival (29% survived 90 days and 26% survived 180 days) and good survival (76% survived 90 days and 65% survived 180 days) (P < .001) in the derivation cohort. We named this assignment system the gene signature-MELD (gs-MELD) score. In validation cohort 1, the gs-MELD score discriminated patients with poor survival (43% survived 90 days) from those with good survival (96% survived 90 days) (P < .001). The gs-MELD score also discriminated between patients with a poor survival at 180 days (34% survived) and a good survival at 180 days (84% survived) (P < .001). The time-dependent area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for the score was 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.99) for survival at 90 days, and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.71-0.96) for survival at 180 days. This score outperformed other clinical models to predict survival of patients with severe AH in validation cohort 1. In validation cohort 2, the gs-MELD discriminated patients with a poor survival at 90 days (12% survived) from those with a good survival at 90 days (100%) (P < .001).ConclusionsWe integrated data on baseline liver gene expression pattern and the MELD score to create the gs-MELD scoring system, which identifies patients with severe AH, treated or not with corticosteroids, most and least likely to survive for 90 and 180 days.

Project description:Background & aimsSevere alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a highly lethal condition and it is still a challenge to predict the outcome. We previously identified and validated a composite score of hepatic 123-gene prognostic signature and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score: gene signature-MELD. However, the need for liver biopsy limits its clinical application. Therefore, we aimed to identify a plasma protein-based surrogate of the gene signature and independently validate its prognostic capability.MethodsAll patients were diagnosed with severe AH at Cliniques universitaires de Bruxelles Hôpital Erasme (Brussels, Belgium), and the plasma samples were collected at admission before any treatment. The primary outcome was death or liver transplantation within 90 days. Using our computational pipeline, named translation of tissue expression to secretome (TexSEC), a hepatic-transcriptome-based prognostic signature was converted to a plasma-based secretome signature, which was optimized in 50 patients by comparing their hepatic molecular dysregulation status and combining it with the MELD score. The composite score was validated independently in 57 patients.ResultsThe TexSEC and optimization process identified a 6-plasma-protein panel as a surrogate for the 123-gene signature. A composite score with the MELD score, the plasma-signature (ps)-MELD score, was created by using the coefficients of the gene signature-MELD equation. In the validation cohort, the high-risk ps-MELD (n = 23; 40%) was associated significantly with death or liver transplantation within 90 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.57; 95% CI, 2.15-9.30; P < .001). The ps-MELD score showed a stable, high prognostic association (time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curve, >0.80) and was well calibrated over time; it consistently outperformed existing clinical scores as indicated by various model performance indices.ConclusionsThe high-risk ps-MELD score was associated with short-term survival in patients with severe AH.

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Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Independently Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery.

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