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Treatment capacity required for full-scale implementation of lung cancer screening in the United States.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Full-scale implementation of lung cancer screening in the United States will increase detection of early stages. This study was aimed at assessing the capacity required for treating those cancers. METHODS:A well-established microsimulation model was extended with treatment data from the National Cancer Database. We assessed how treatment demand would change when implementing lung cancer screening in 2018. Three policies were assessed: 1) annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 15 years ago, aged 55 to 80 years, with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years (US Preventive Services Task Force [USPSTF] recommendations); 2) annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 15 years ago, aged 55 to 77 years, with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services [CMS] recommendations); and 3) annual screening of current smokers and former smokers who quit fewer than 10 years ago, aged 55 to 75 years, with a smoking history of at least 40 pack-years (the most cost-effective policy in Ontario [Ontario]). The base-case screening adherence was a constant 50%. Sensitivity analyses assessed other adherence levels, including a linear buildup to 50% between 2018 and 2027. RESULTS:The USPSTF policy would require 37.0% more lung cancer surgeries in 2015-2040 than no screening, 2.2% less radiotherapy, and 5.4% less chemotherapy; 5.7% more patients would require any therapy. The increase in surgical demand would be 96.1% in 2018, 46.0% in 2023, 38.3% in 2028, and 24.9% in 2040. Adherence strongly influenced results. By 2018, surgical demand would range from 52,619 (20% adherence) to 96,121 (80%). With a gradual buildup of adherence, the increase in surgical demand would be 9.6% in 2018, 38.3% in 2023, 42.0% in 2028, and 24.4% in 2040. Results for the CMS and Ontario policies were similar, although the changes in comparison with no screening were smaller. CONCLUSIONS:Full-scale implementation of lung cancer screening causes a major increase in surgical demand, with a peak within the first 5 years. A gradual buildup of adherence can spread this peak over time. Careful surgical capacity planning is essential for successfully implementing screening.

SUBMITTER: Blom EF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6541509 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveTo characterize the quantity and quality of hospital capacity across the United States.Data sourcesWe combine a 2017 near-census of US hospital inpatient discharges from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) with American Hospital Association Survey, Hospital Compare, and American Community Survey data.Study designThis study produces local hospital capacity quantity and care quality measures by allocating capacity to zip codes using market shares and population totals. Disparities in these measures are examined by race and ethnicity, income, age, and urbanicity.Data collection/extraction methodsAll data are derived from pre-existing sources. All hospitals and zip codes in states, including the District of Columbia, contributing complete data to HCUP in 2017 are included.Principal findingsNon-Hispanic Black individuals living in zip codes supplied, on average, 0.11 more beds per 1000 population (SE = 0.01) than places where non-Hispanic White individuals live. However, the hospitals supplying this capacity have 0.36 fewer staff per bed (SE = 0.03) and perform worse on many care quality measures. Zip codes in the most urban parts of America have the least hospital capacity (2.11 beds per 1000 persons; SEM = 0.01) from across the rural-urban continuum. While more rural areas have markedly higher capacity levels, urban areas have advantages in staff and capital per bed. We do not find systematic differences in care quality between rural and urban areas.ConclusionsThis study highlights the importance of lower hospital care quality and resource intensity in driving racial and ethnic, as well as income, disparities in hospital care-related outcomes. This study also contributes an alternative approach for measuring local hospital capacity that accounts for cross-hospital service area flows. Adjusting for these flows is necessary to avoid underestimating the supply of capacity in rural areas and overestimating it in places where non-Hispanic Black individuals tend to live.

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Treatment capacity required for full-scale implementation of lung cancer screening in the United States.

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