Prognostic model for traumatic death due to bleeding: cross-sectional international study.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To develop and validate a prognostic model and a simple model to predict death due to bleeding in trauma patients.Design
Cross-sectional study with multivariable logistic regression using data from two large trauma cohorts.Setting
274 hospitals from 40 countries in the Clinical Randomisation of Anti-fibrinolytic in Significant Haemorrhage (CRASH-2) trial and 24 hospitals in the Northern French Alps Trauma registry.Participants
13 485 trauma patients in the CRASH-2 trial and 9945 patients in the Northern French Alps Trauma registry who were admitted to hospital within 3 hours of injury.Main outcome measure
In-hospital death due to bleeding within 28 days.Results
There were 815 (6%) deaths from bleeding in the CRASH-2 trial and 102 (1%) in the Northern French Alps Trauma registry. The full model included age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), heart rate, respiratory rate and type of injury (penetrating). The simple model included age, SBP and GCS. In a cross-validation procedure by country, discrimination and calibration were adequate (pooled C-statistic 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) for the full model and 0.84 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.88) for the simple model).Conclusion
This prognostic model can identify trauma patients at risk of death due to bleeding in a wide range of settings and can support prehospital triage and trauma audit, including audit of tranexamic acid use.
SUBMITTER: Ageron FX
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6549712 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveAfghanistan, with one of the world's largest refugee populations, suffers an enormous burden of injury resulting in loss of life. This study aims to identify the epidemiology of injuries or death in the crisis-affected populations across Afghanistan and to investigate factors associated with injuries or deaths due to traumatic events.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingThis study analysed Whole Afghanistan Assessment 2019 data. This survey geographically covered all 34 accessible provinces in Afghanistan.Participants31 343 displaced and shock-affected households in Afghanistan.Primary and secondary outcome measuresInjury or death of household members due to traumatic events.Results2561 (8.2%) reported at least one household member had been injured or deceased because of a significant conflict or natural disaster in the past year. Households experienced significant events such as active conflict or violence (prevalence ratio, PR=5.575, p<0.001), earthquake (PR=3.118, p=0.004), flood (PR=1.534, p=0.008) and avalanche or heavy snowfall (PR=3.450, p<0.001) were significantly associated with injury or death. The likelihood of injury or death was significantly higher for long-distance households than for households living within a 5 km radius of the nearest healthcare facilities (6-10 km: PR=1.402, p=0.030; >10 km: PR=1.560, p=0.020).ConclusionThe study provides an epidemiological profile of injuries or death in crisis-affected populations across Afghanistan. Results also suggest that certain factors place the crisis-affected populations in Afghanistan at high risk for injuries or death, which can inform the development of surveillance and prevention programmes, the monitoring of patterns over time and the formulation of healthcare policies.
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Project description:BackgroundIntracranial bleeding (IB) is a common and serious consequence of traumatic brain injury (TBI). IB can be classified according to the location into: epidural haemorrhage (EDH) subdural haemorrhage (SDH) intraparenchymal haemorrhage (IPH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Studies involving repeated CT scanning of TBI patients have found that IB can develop or expand in the 48 hours after injury. If IB enlarges after hospital admission and larger bleeds have a worse prognosis, this would provide a therapeutic rationale for treatments to prevent increase in the extent of bleeding. We analysed data from the Trauma Audit & Research Network (TARN), a large European trauma registry, to evaluate the association between the size of IB and mortality in patients with TBI.MethodsWe analysed 13,962 patients presenting to TARN participating hospitals between 2001 and 2008 with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) less than 15 at presentation or any head injury with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) severity code 3 and above. The extent of intracranial bleeding was determined by the AIS code. Potential confounders were age, presenting Glasgow Coma Score, mechanism of injury, presence and nature of other brain injuries, and presence of extra-cranial injuries. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and haematoma evacuation. We conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to evaluate the independent effect of large and small size of IB, in comparison with no bleeding, on patient outcomes. We also conducted a multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the independent effect on mortality of large IB in comparison with small IB.ResultsAlmost 46% of patients had at some type of IB. Subdural haemorrhages were present in 30% of the patients, with epidural and intraparenchymal present in approximately 22% each. After adjusting for potential confounders, we found that large IB, wherever located, was associated with increased mortality in comparison with no bleeding. We also found that large IB was associated with an increased risk of mortality in comparison with small IB. The odds ratio for mortality for large SDH, IPH and EDH, in comparison with small bleeds, were: 3.41 (95% CI: 2.684.33), 3.47 (95% CI: 2.265.33) and 2.86 (95% CI: 1.864.38) respectively.ConclusionLarge EDH, SDH and IPH are associated with a substantially higher probability of hospital mortality in comparison with small IB. However, the limitations of our data, such as the large proportion of missing data and lack of data on other confounding factors, such as localization of the bleeding, make the results of this report only explanatory. Future studies should also evaluate the effect of IB size on functional outcomes.
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Project description:AIM:To estimate the frequency and localization of acute (traumatic) and chronic (overuse) injuries in a population of masters rowers with respect to their age subgroups and assess the association between injury occurrence and different training modalities, rowing experience, previous competition level, and current rowing practice. METHODS:A cross-sectional study was conducted among 743 masters rowers who participated in the 34th International Federation of Rowing Associations (Fédération Internationale des Sociétés d'Aviron, FISA) World Rowing Masters Regatta held in Zagreb, September 2-9, 2007. A rowing-specific questionnaire was used, followed by an interview about the injuries sustained during the 12-month period before the competition. RESULTS:The mean injury rate per year was 0.48 injuries/masters rower (2.25 injuries/1000 training sessions/rower). The majority of injuries were chronic injuries (the ratio of acute to chronic injuries was 1:1.7), and did not lead to the loss of training/competition time. Of all acute injuries, 49.6% were acquired during rowing-specific training, 43.7% during cross-training, and 6.7% in the gym. The most commonly affected region was the low back (32.6%), followed by the knee (14.2%), shoulder/upper arm, and elbow (10.6% each). CONCLUSION:International masters rowers sustained predominantly chronic injuries of low severity, and the most commonly injured region was the low back. The mean injury rate per rower per year was lower than the rates previously reported for juniors and seniors.
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Project description:Genetic and environmental risk factors contribute to periodontal disease, but the underlying susceptibility pathways are not fully understood. Epigenetic mechanisms are malleable regulators of gene function that can change in response to genetic and environmental stimuli, thereby providing a potential mechanism mediating risk effects in periodontitis. The aim of this study is to identify epigenetic changes across tissues that are associated with periodontal disease.
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Project description:Low-grade, chronic inflammation during ageing (“inflammageing”) is suggested to be involved in the development of frailty in older age. However, studies on the association between frailty, using the frailty index definition, and inflammatory markers are limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers and frailty index (FI) in older, home-dwelling adults. Home-dwelling men and women aged ≥ 70 years old, living in South-East Norway were recruited and included in a cross-sectional study. The FI used in the current study was developed according to Rockwood’s frailty index and included 38 variables, resulting in an FI score between 0 and 1 for each participant. Circulating inflammatory markers (IL-6, CRP, IGF-1, cystatin C, cathepsin S, and glycoprotein Acetyls) were analyzed from non-fasting blood samples using ELISA. Whole-genome PBMC transcriptomics was used to study the association between FI score and inflammation. The present study was a cross-sectional study that included home-dwelling men and women aged ≥ 70 years old, living in the Skedsmo area, South-East Norway. The study was conducted in 2014/2015 and has been described previously [Ottestad I, Ulven SM, Øyri LKL, Sandvei KS, Gjevestad GO, Bye A, et al. Reduced plasma concentration of branched-chain amino acids in sarcopenic older subjects: a cross-sectional study. Br J Nutr. 2018;120(4):445-53]. The participants were recruited by the National Register and received an invitation letter by mail. Briefly, a total of 2820 subjects were invited, and 437 subjects participated in the study. The participants met for a single study visit, and data was collected on dietary intake, body weight and composition, physical performance, medical history, cognitive function, risk of malnutrition, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, heart rate, and quality of life. Non-fasting blood samples were also collected.
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Project description:BackgroundInternational professional bodies have been quick to disseminate initial guidance documents during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the absence of firm evidence, these have been developed by expert committees, limited in participant number. This study aimed to validate international COVID-19 surgical guidance using a rapid Delphi consensus exercise.MethodsDelphi statements were directly mapped to guidance from surgical professional bodies in the US and Europe (SAGES/EAES), the UK (Joint RCS), and Australasia (RACS), to validate content against international consensus. Agreement from ≥70% participants was determined as consensus agreement.ResultsThe Delphi exercise was completed by 339 individuals from 41 countries and 52 statements were mapped to the guidance, 47 (90.4%) reaching consensus agreement. Of these, 27 statements were mapped to SAGES/EAES guidance, 21 to the Joint RCS document, and 33 to the RACS document. Within the SAGES/EAES document, 92.9% of items reached consensus agreement (median 89.0%, range 60.5-99.2%), 90.4% within the Joint RCS document (87.6%, 63.4-97.9%), and 90.9% within the RACS document (85.5%, 18.7-98.8%). Statements lacking consensus related to the surgical approach (open vs. laparoscopic), dual consultant operating, separate instrument decontamination, and stoma formation rather than anastomosis.ConclusionInitial surgical COVID-19 guidance from the US, Europe and Australasia was widely supported by an international expert community, although a small number of contentious areas emerged. These findings should be addressed in future guidance iterations, and should stimulate urgent investigation of non-consensus areas.
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