Dataset Information

Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales.

ABSTRACT: Significant changes in the composition and extent of the UK forest cover are likely to take place in the coming decades. Current policy targets an increase in forest area, for example, the Welsh Government aims for forest expansion by 2030, and a purposeful shift from non-native conifers to broadleaved tree species, as identified by the UK Forestry Standard Guidelines on Biodiversity. Using the example of Wales, we aim to generate an evidence-based projection of the impact of contrasting policy scenarios on the state of forests in the near future, with the view of stimulating debate and aiding decisions concerning plausible outcomes of different policies. We quantified changes in different land use and land cover (LULC) classes in Wales between 2007 and 2015 and used a multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain ensemble modelling approach to project the state of Welsh forests in 2030 under the current and an alternative policy scenario. The current level of expansion and restoration of broadleaf forest in Wales is sufficient to deliver on existing policy goals. We also show effects of a more ambitious afforestation policy on the Welsh landscape. In a key finding, the highest intensity of broadleaf expansion is likely to shift from southeastern to more central areas of Wales. The study identifies the key predictors of LULC change in Wales. High-resolution future land cover simulation maps using these predictors offer an evidence-based tool for forest managers and government officials to test the effects of existing and alternative policy scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Manzoor SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6549994 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales.

Manzoor Syed Amir SA Griffiths Geoffrey G Latham James J Lukac Martin M

Royal Society open science 20190522 5

Significant changes in the composition and extent of the UK forest cover are likely to take place in the coming decades. Current policy targets an increase in forest area, for example, the Welsh Government aims for forest expansion by 2030, and a purposeful shift from non-native conifers to broadleaved tree species, as identified by the UK Forestry Standard Guidelines on Biodiversity. Using the example of Wales, we aim to generate an evidence-based projection of the impact of contrasting policy ...[more]

PMID: 31218047

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Project description:Soil respiration is the second largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux; the responses of soil respiration to nitrogen (N) deposition have far-reaching influences on the global C cycle. N deposition has been documented to significantly affect soil respiration, but the results are conflicting. The response of soil respiration to N deposition gradients remains unclear, especially in ecosystems receiving increasing ambient N depositions. A field experiment was conducted in a natural evergreen broadleaf forest in western China from November 2013 to November 2015 to understand the effects of increasing N deposition on soil respiration. Four levels of N deposition were investigated: control (Ctr, without N added), low N (L, 50 kg N ha-1·a-1), medium N (M, 150 kg N ha-1·a-1), and high N (H, 300 kg N ha-1·a-1). The results show that (1) the mean soil respiration rates in the L, M, and H treatments were 9.13%, 15.8% (P < 0.05) and 22.57% (P < 0.05) lower than that in the Ctr treatment (1.56 ± 0.13 μmol·m-2·s-1), respectively; (2) soil respiration rates showed significant positive exponential and linear relationships with soil temperature and moisture (P < 0.01), respectively. Soil temperature is more important than soil moisture in controlling the soil respiration rate; (3) the Ctr, L, M, and H treatments yielded Q10 values of 2.98, 2.78, 2.65, and 2.63, respectively. N deposition decreased the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration; (4) simulated N deposition also significantly decreased the microbial biomass C and N, fine root biomass, pH and extractable dissolved organic C (P < 0.05). Overall, the results suggest that soil respiration declines in response to N deposition. The decrease in soil respiration caused by simulated N deposition may occur through decreasing the microbial biomass C and N, fine root biomass, pH and extractable dissolved organic C. Ongoing N deposition may have significant impacts on C cycles and increase C sequestration with the increase in global temperature in evergreen broadleaf forests.

Dataset Information

Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales.

Publications

Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales.

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