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A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk.

ABSTRACT: We present a new mechanistic model for predicting Septoria tritici blotch (STB) disease, parameterized with experimentally derived data for temperature- and wetness-dependent germination, growth and death of the causal agent, Zymoseptoria tritici. The output of this model (A) was compared with observed disease data for UK wheat over the period 2002-2016. In addition, we compared the output of a second model (B), in which experimentally derived parameters were replaced by a modified version of a published Z. tritici thermal performance equation, with the same observed disease data. Neither model predicted observed annual disease, but model A was able to differentiate UK regions with differing average disease risks over the entire period. The greatest limitations of both models are: broad spatial resolution of the climate data, and lack of host parameters. Model B is further limited by its lack of explicitly defined pathogen death, leading to a cumulative overestimation of disease over the course of the growing season. Comparison of models A and B demonstrates the importance of accounting for the temperature-dependency of pathogen processes important in the initiation and progression of disease. However, effective modelling of STB will probably require similar experimentally derived parameters for host and environmental factors, completing the disease triangle. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

SUBMITTER: Chaloner TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6553599 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk.

Chaloner Thomas M TM Fones Helen N HN Varma Varun V Bebber Daniel P DP Gurr Sarah J SJ

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190601 1775

We present a new mechanistic model for predicting Septoria tritici blotch (STB) disease, parameterized with experimentally derived data for temperature- and wetness-dependent germination, growth and death of the causal agent, Zymoseptoria tritici. The output of this model (A) was compared with observed disease data for UK wheat over the period 2002-2016. In addition, we compared the output of a second model (B), in which experimentally derived parameters were replaced by a modified version of a ...[more]

PMID: 31056050

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Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the initial, symptomless (latent) phase of the devastating wheat disease Septoria tritici blotch. However, speculations as to its impact on fungal success and disease severity in the field have suggested that a long latent phase is beneficial to the host and can reduce inoculum build up in the field over a growing season. The winter wheat cultivar Stigg is derived from a synthetic hexaploid wheat and contains introgressions from wild tetraploid wheat Triticum turgidum subsp. dicoccoides, which contribute to cv. Stigg's exceptional STB resistance, hallmarked by a long latent phase. We compared the early transcriptomic response to Zymoseptoria tritici of cv. Stigg to a susceptible wheat cultivar, to elucidate the mechanisms of and differences in pathogen recognition and disease response in these two hosts.ResultsThe STB-susceptible cultivar Longbow responds to Z. tritici infection with a stress response, including activation of hormone-responsive transcription factors, post translational modifications, and response to oxidative stress. The activation of key genes associated with these pathways in cv. Longbow was independently observed in a second susceptible wheat cultivar based on an independent gene expression study. By comparison, cv. Stigg is apathetic in response to STB, and appears to fail to activate a range of defence pathways that cv. Longbow employs. Stigg also displays some evidence of sub-genome bias in its response to Z. tritici infection, whereas the susceptible cv. Longbow shows even distribution of Z. tritici responsive genes across the three wheat sub-genomes.ConclusionsWe identify a suite of disease response genes that are involved in early pathogen response in susceptible wheat cultivars that may ultimately lead to susceptibility. In comparison, we hypothesise that rather than an active defence response to stave off disease progression, cv. Stigg's defence strategy is molecular lethargy, or a lower-amplitude of pathogen recognition that may stem from cv. Stigg's wild wheat-derived ancestry. Overall, we present insights into cv. Stigg's exceptional resistance to STB, and present key biological processes for further characterisation in this pathosystem.

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A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk.

Publications

A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk.

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