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Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.

ABSTRACT: Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the sensitivity of HRE-induced epidemics to variation in the effects of rainfall on the dynamics of mosquito breeding capacity, and the intensity and temporal profile of human population displacement patterns. The recent Hurricane Harvey in Texas motivates the simulations reported. Overall, we find that the impact of vector-borne disease transmission is likely to be greater the earlier the HREs occur in the transmission season. Simulations based on data for Hurricane Harvey suggest that the limited impact it had on vector-borne disease transmission was in part because of when it occurred (late August) relative to the local transmission season, and in part because of the mitigating effect of the displacement of people. We also highlight key data gaps related to models of vector-borne disease transmission in the context of natural disasters. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

SUBMITTER: Chowell G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6553605 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.

Chowell G G Mizumoto K K Banda J M JM Poccia S S Perrings C C

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190601 1775

Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the ...[more]

PMID: 31056044

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Project description:BackgroundVector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic.MethodsOur model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality.ResultsOur numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data.ConclusionThe population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Project description:The transmission of "lumpy skin disease virus" (LSDV) has prompted intensive research efforts due to the rapid spread and high impact of the disease in recent years, especially in Eastern Europe and Balkan countries. In this study, we experimentally evaluate the vaccine-derived virulent recombinant LSDV strain (Saratov/2017) and provide solid evidence on the capacity of the virus for transmission in a vector-proof environment. In the 60-day long experiment, we used inoculated bulls (IN group) and two groups of in-contact animals (C1 and C2), with the former (C1) being in contact with the inoculated animals at the onset of the trial and the latter (C2) being introduced at day 33 of the experiment. The infection in both groups of contact animals was confirmed clinically, serologically and virologically, and viremia was demonstrated in blood, nasal and ocular excretions, using molecular tools. Further studies into LSDV biology are a priority to gain insights into whether the hypothesized indirect contact mode evidenced in this study is a de novo-created feature, absent from both parental stains of the novel (recombinant) LSDV isolate used, or whether it was dormant, but then unlocked by the process of genetic recombination. Author summary: In global terms, LSD has been termed a "neglected disease" due to its historic natural occurrence of being restricted to Africa and, occasionally, Israel. However, after its slow spread throughout the Middle East, the disease is now experiencing a resurgence of research interest following a recent and rapid spread into more northern latitudes. Given the dearth of solid findings on potential transmission mechanisms, no efficient or reliable control program currently exists, which does not involve the use of live attenuated vaccines or stamping out policies - both of which are controversial for implementation in non-endemic regions or countries. The vector-borne mode is the only working concept currently available, but with scarce evidence to support the aggressive spread northwards - except for human-assisted spread, including legal or illegal animal transportation. The emergence of outbreaks is not consistently linked to weather conditions, with the potential for new outbreaks to occur and spread rapidly. Here, for the first time, we provide evidence for indirect contact-mode transmission for a naturally-occurring recombinant LSDV isolated from the field. In an insect-proof facility, we obtained solid evidence that the novel LSDV strain can pass to in-contact animals. Given the recombinant nature of the virus utilised, its genetic background relating to the observed transmission pattern within the study needs to be delineated.

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Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.

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Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.

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