Dataset Information

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Serious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

Methods

We projected the future burden of serious health-related suffering as defined by the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief, by combining WHO mortality projections (2016-60) with estimates of physical and psychological symptom prevalence in 20 conditions most often associated with symptoms requiring palliative care. Projections were described in terms of absolute numbers and proportional change compared with the 2016 baseline data. Results were stratified by World Bank income regions and WHO geographical regions.

Findings

By 2060, an estimated 48 million people (47% of all deaths globally) will die with serious health-related suffering, which represents an 87% increase from 26 million people in 2016. 83% of these deaths will occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Serious health-related suffering will increase in all regions, with the largest proportional rise in low-income countries (155% increase between 2016 and 2060). Globally, serious health-related suffering will increase most rapidly among people aged 70 years or older (183% increase between 2016 and 2060). In absolute terms, it will be driven by rises in cancer deaths (16 million people, 109% increase between 2016 and 2060). The condition with the highest proportional increase in serious-related suffering will be dementia (6 million people, 264% increase between 2016 and 2060).

Interpretation

The burden of serious health-related suffering will almost double by 2060, with the fastest increases occurring in low-income countries, among older people, and people with dementia. Immediate global action to integrate palliative care into health systems is an ethical and economic imperative.

Funding

Research Challenge Fund, Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, King's College London.

SUBMITTER: Sleeman KE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6560023 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

Sleeman Katherine E KE de Brito Maja M Etkind Simon S Nkhoma Kennedy K Guo Ping P Higginson Irene J IJ Gomes Barbara B Harding Richard R

The Lancet. Global health 20190522 7

<h4>Background</h4>Serious life-threatening and life-limiting illnesses place an enormous burden on society and health systems. Understanding how this burden will evolve in the future is essential to inform policies that alleviate suffering and prevent health system weakening. We aimed to project the global burden of serious health-related suffering requiring palliative care until 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.<h4>Methods</h4>We projected the future burden of serious h ...[more]

PMID: 31129125

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Project description:BackgroundCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne parasitic diseases of public health importance that is prevalent in the West Bank but not in the Gaza Strip. The disease caused by parasitic protozoans from the genus Leishmania and it is transmitted by infected phlebotomine sand flies. The aim of our study is to investigate the eco-epidemiological parameters and spatiotemporal projections of CL in Palestine over a 30-years period from 1990 through 2020 and to explore future projections until 2060.Methodology/principal findingsThis long-term descriptive epidemiological study includes investigation of demographic characteristics of reported patients by the Palestinian Ministry of Health (PMoH). Moreover, we explored spatiotemporal distribution of CL including future projection based on climate change scenarios. The number of CL patients reported during this period was 5855 cases, and the average annual incidence rate (AAIR) was 18.5 cases/105 population. The male to female ratio was 1.25:1. Patients-age ranged from 2 months to 89 years (mean = 22.5, std 18.67, and the median was 18 years). More than 65% of the cases came from three governates in the West Bank; Jenin 29% (1617 cases), Jericho 25% (1403), and Tubas 12% (658) with no cases reported in the Gaza Strip. Seasonal occurrence of CL starts to increase in December and peaked during March and April of the following year. Current distribution of CL indicate that Jericho, Tubas, Jenin and Nablus have the most suitable climatic settings for the sandfly vectors. Future projections until 2060 suggest an increasing incidence from northwest of Jenin down to the southwest of Ramallah, disappearance of the foci in Jericho and Tubas throughout the Jordan Vally, and possible emergence of new foci in Gaza Strip.Conclusions/significanceThe future projection of CL in Palestine until 2060 show a tendency of increasing incidence in the north western parts of the West Bank, disappearance from Jericho and Tubas throughout the Jordan Vally, and emergence of new CL endemic foci in the Gaza Strip. These results should be considered to implement effective control and surveillance systems to counteract spatial expansion of CL vectors.

Dataset Information

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

The escalating global burden of serious health-related suffering: projections to 2060 by world regions, age groups, and health conditions.

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