Dataset Information

Interval Estimation for Age-Adjusted Rate Ratios Using Bayesian Convolution Model.

ABSTRACT: Spatial correlation raises challenges in estimating confidence intervals for region specific event rates and rate ratios between geographic units that are nested. Methods have been proposed to incorporate spatial correlation by assuming various distributions for the structure of autocorrelation patterns. However, the derivation of these statistics based on approximation may have to condition on the distributional assumption underlying the data generating process, which may not hold for certain situations. This paper explores the feasibility of utilizing a Bayesian convolution model (BCM), which includes an uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) and a conditional autoregression (CAR) component to accommodate both uncorrelated and correlated spatial heterogeneity, to estimate the 95% confidence intervals for age-adjusted rate ratios among geographic regions with existing spatial correlations. A simulation study is conducted and a BCM method is applied to two cancer incidence datasets to calculate age-adjusted rate/ratio for the counties in the State of Kentucky relative to the entire state. In comparison to three existing methods, without and with spatial correlation, the Bayesian convolution model-based estimation provides moderate shrinkage effect for the point estimates based on the neighbor structure across regions and produces a wider interval due to the inclusion of uncertainty in the spatial autocorrelation parameters. The overall spatial pattern of region incidence rate from BCM approach appears to be like the direct estimates and other methods for both datasets, even though "smoothing" occurs in some local regions. The Bayesian Convolution Model allows flexibility in the specification of risk components and can improve the accuracy of interval estimates of age-adjusted rate ratios among geographical regions as it considers spatial correlation.

SUBMITTER: Jiang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6560155 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Interval Estimation for Age-Adjusted Rate Ratios Using Bayesian Convolution Model.

Jiang Yunyun Y Lawson Andrew B AB Zhu Li L Feuer Eric J EJ

Frontiers in public health 20190605

Spatial correlation raises challenges in estimating confidence intervals for region specific event rates and rate ratios between geographic units that are nested. Methods have been proposed to incorporate spatial correlation by assuming various distributions for the structure of autocorrelation patterns. However, the derivation of these statistics based on approximation may have to condition on the distributional assumption underlying the data generating process, which may not hold for certain s ...[more]

PMID: 31231628

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Project description:Neurons use sequences of action potentials (spikes) to convey information across neuronal networks. In neurophysiology experiments, information about external stimuli or behavioral tasks has been frequently characterized in term of neuronal firing rate. The firing rate is conventionally estimated by averaging spiking responses across multiple similar experiments (or trials). However, there exist a number of applications in neuroscience research that require firing rate to be estimated on a single trial basis. Estimating firing rate from a single trial is a challenging problem and current state-of-the-art methods do not perform well. To address this issue, we develop a new method for estimating firing rate based on a kernel smoothing technique that considers the bandwidth as a random variable with prior distribution that is adaptively updated under an empirical Bayesian framework. By carefully selecting the prior distribution together with Gaussian kernel function, an analytical expression can be achieved for the kernel bandwidth. We refer to the proposed method as Bayesian Adaptive Kernel Smoother (BAKS). We evaluate the performance of BAKS using synthetic spike train data generated by biologically plausible models: inhomogeneous Gamma (IG) and inhomogeneous inverse Gaussian (IIG). We also apply BAKS to real spike train data from non-human primate (NHP) motor and visual cortex. We benchmark the proposed method against established and previously reported methods. These include: optimized kernel smoother (OKS), variable kernel smoother (VKS), local polynomial fit (Locfit), and Bayesian adaptive regression splines (BARS). Results using both synthetic and real data demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better performance compared to competing methods. This suggests that the proposed method could be useful for understanding the encoding mechanism of neurons in cognitive-related tasks. The proposed method could also potentially improve the performance of brain-machine interface (BMI) decoder that relies on estimated firing rate as the input.

Dataset Information

Interval Estimation for Age-Adjusted Rate Ratios Using Bayesian Convolution Model.

Publications

Interval Estimation for Age-Adjusted Rate Ratios Using Bayesian Convolution Model.

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