Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

16 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Hidden interactions in financial markets.

ABSTRACT: The hidden nature of causality is a puzzling, yet critical notion for effective decision-making. Financial markets are characterized by fluctuating interdependencies which seldom give rise to emergent phenomena such as bubbles or crashes. In this paper, we propose a method based on symbolic dynamics, which probes beneath the surface of abstract causality and unveils the nature of causal interactions. Our method allows distinction between positive and negative interdependencies as well as a hybrid form that we refer to as "dark causality." We propose an algorithm which is validated by models of a priori defined causal interaction. Then, we test our method on asset pairs and on a network of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS). Our findings suggest that dark causality dominates the sovereign CDS network, indicating interdependencies which require caution from an investor's perspective.

SUBMITTER: Stavroglou SK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6561208 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Hidden interactions in financial markets.

Stavroglou Stavros K SK Pantelous Athanasios A AA Stanley H Eugene HE Zuev Konstantin M KM

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20190513 22

The hidden nature of causality is a puzzling, yet critical notion for effective decision-making. Financial markets are characterized by fluctuating interdependencies which seldom give rise to emergent phenomena such as bubbles or crashes. In this paper, we propose a method based on symbolic dynamics, which probes beneath the surface of abstract causality and unveils the nature of causal interactions. Our method allows distinction between positive and negative interdependencies as well as a hybri ...[more]

PMID: 31085649

Similar Datasets

Switching processes in financial markets.

Project description:For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating upward trends and downward trends, on time scales ranging from macroscopic trends persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic trends persisting for a few minutes. The question arises whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the transaction volume after each switching. Our findings can be interpreted as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in time intervals between transactions. We suggest that the well known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales--such as the most recent financial crisis--may not be outliers but single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of increasing and decreasing trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from very large down to very small.

| S-EPMC3093477 | biostudies-literature

Learning agents in Black-Scholes financial markets.

Project description:Black-Scholes (BS) is a remarkable quotation model for European option pricing in financial markets. Option prices are calculated using an analytical formula whose main inputs are strike (at which price to exercise) and volatility. The BS framework assumes that volatility remains constant across all strikes; however, in practice, it varies. How do traders come to learn these parameters? We introduce natural agent-based models, in which traders update their beliefs about the true implied volatility based on the opinions of other agents. We prove exponentially fast convergence of these opinion dynamics, using techniques from control theory and leader-follower models, thus providing a resolution between theory and market practices. We allow for two different models, one with feedback and one with an unknown leader.

| S-EPMC7657902 | biostudies-literature

When can social media lead financial markets?

Project description:Social media analytics is showing promise for the prediction of financial markets. However, the true value of such data for trading is unclear due to a lack of consensus on which instruments can be predicted and how. Current approaches are based on the evaluation of message volumes and are typically assessed via retrospective (ex-post facto) evaluation of trading strategy returns. In this paper, we present instead a sentiment analysis methodology to quantify and statistically validate which assets could qualify for trading from social media analytics in an ex-ante configuration. We use sentiment analysis techniques and Information Theory measures to demonstrate that social media message sentiment can contain statistically-significant ex-ante information on the future prices of the S&P500 index and a limited set of stocks, in excess of what is achievable using solely message volumes.

| S-EPMC5379406 | biostudies-literature

Flickering in Information Spreading Precedes Critical Transitions in Financial Markets.

Project description:As many complex dynamical systems, financial markets exhibit sudden changes or tipping points that can turn into systemic risk. This paper aims at building and validating a new class of early warning signals of critical transitions. We base our analysis on information spreading patterns in dynamic temporal networks, where nodes are connected by short-term causality. Before a tipping point occurs, we observe flickering in information spreading, as measured by clustering coefficients. Nodes rapidly switch between "being in" and "being out" the information diffusion process. Concurrently, stock markets start to desynchronize. To capture these features, we build two early warning indicators based on the number of regime switches, and on the time between two switches. We divide our data into two sub-samples. Over the first one, using receiver operating curve, we show that we are able to detect a tipping point about one year before it occurs. For instance, our empirical model perfectly predicts the Global Financial Crisis. Over the second sub-sample, used as a robustness check, our two statistical metrics also capture, to a large extent, the 2016 financial turmoil. Our results suggest that our indicators have informational content about a future tipping point, and have therefore strong policy implications.

| S-EPMC6450864 | biostudies-other

Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends.

Project description:Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as "early warning signs" of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior.

| S-EPMC3635219 | biostudies-literature

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

Project description:Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

| S-EPMC548562 | biostudies-literature

A behavioral approach to instability pathways in financial markets.

Project description:We introduce an indicator that aims to detect the emergence of market instabilities by quantifying the intensity of self-organizing processes arising from stock returns' co-movements. In financial markets, phenomena like imitation, herding and positive feedbacks characterize the emergence of endogenous instabilities, which can modify the qualitative and quantitative behavior of the underlying system. The impossibility to formalize ex-ante the dynamic laws that rule the evolution of financial systems motivates the use of a parsimonious synthetic indicator to detect the disruption of an existing equilibrium configuration. Here we show that the emergence of an interconnected sub-graph of stock returns co-movements from a broader market index is a signal of an out-of-equilibrium transition of the underlying system. To test the validity of our approach, we propose a model-free application that builds on the identification of up and down market phases.

| S-EPMC7136275 | biostudies-literature

Fractal markets hypothesis and the global financial crisis: wavelet power evidence.

Project description:We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power spectra which give the crucial information about the variance distribution across scales and its evolution in time. We show that the most turbulent times of the Global Financial Crisis can be very well characterized by the dominance of short investment horizons which is in hand with the assertions of the fractal markets hypothesis.

| S-EPMC3790199 | biostudies-other

Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

Project description:We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

| S-EPMC4100891 | biostudies-literature

Extracting the multi-timescale activity patterns of online financial markets.

Project description:Online financial markets can be represented as complex systems where trading dynamics can be captured and characterized at different resolutions and time scales. In this work, we develop a methodology based on non-negative tensor factorization (NTF) aimed at extracting and revealing the multi-timescale trading dynamics governing online financial systems. We demonstrate the advantage of our strategy first using synthetic data, and then on real-world data capturing all interbank transactions (over a million) occurred in an Italian online financial market (e-MID) between 2001 and 2015. Our results demonstrate how NTF can uncover hidden activity patterns that characterize groups of banks exhibiting different trading strategies (normal vs. early vs. flash trading, etc.). We further illustrate how our methodology can reveal "crisis modalities" in trading triggered by endogenous and exogenous system shocks: as an example, we reveal and characterize trading anomalies in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis.

| S-EPMC6060124 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data