Dataset Information

Predicting in-hospital mortality and unanticipated admissions to the intensive care unit using routinely collected blood tests and vital signs: Development and validation of a multivariable model.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

The National Early Warning System (NEWS) is based on vital signs; the Laboratory Decision Tree Early Warning Score (LDT-EWS) on laboratory test results. We aimed to develop and validate a new EWS (the LDTEWS:NEWS risk index) by combining the two and evaluating the discrimination of the primary outcome of unanticipated intensive care unit (ICU) admission or in-hospital mortality, within 24?h.

Methods

We studied emergency medical admissions, aged 16 years or over, admitted to Oxford University Hospitals (OUH) and Portsmouth Hospitals (PH). Each admission had vital signs and laboratory tests measured within their hospital stay. We combined LDT-EWS and NEWS values using a linear time-decay weighting function imposed on the most recent blood tests. The LDTEWS:NEWS risk index was developed using data from 5 years of admissions to PH, and validated on a year of data from both PH and OUH. We tested the risk index's ability to discriminate the primary outcome using the c-statistic.

Results

The development cohort contained 97,933 admissions (median age?=?73 years) of which 4723 (4.8%) resulted inhospital death and 1078 (1.1%) in unanticipated ICU admission. We validated the risk index using data from PH (n?=?21,028) and OUH (n?=?16,383). The risk index showed a higher discrimination in the validation sets (c-statistic value (95% CI)) (PH, 0.901 (0.898-0.905); OUH, 0.916 (0.911-0.921)), than NEWS alone (PH, 0.877 (0.873-0.882); OUH, 0.898 (0.893-0.904)).

Conclusions

The LDTEWS:NEWS risk index increases the ability to identify patients at risk of deterioration, compared to NEWS alone.

SUBMITTER: Redfern OC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6562198 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting in-hospital mortality and unanticipated admissions to the intensive care unit using routinely collected blood tests and vital signs: Development and validation of a multivariable model.

Redfern Oliver C OC Pimentel Marco A F MAF Prytherch David D Meredith Paul P Clifton David A DA Tarassenko Lionel L Smith Gary B GB Watkinson Peter J PJ

Resuscitation 20180922

<h4>Aim</h4>The National Early Warning System (NEWS) is based on vital signs; the Laboratory Decision Tree Early Warning Score (LDT-EWS) on laboratory test results. We aimed to develop and validate a new EWS (the LDTEWS:NEWS risk index) by combining the two and evaluating the discrimination of the primary outcome of unanticipated intensive care unit (ICU) admission or in-hospital mortality, within 24 h.<h4>Methods</h4>We studied emergency medical admissions, aged 16 years or over, admitted to Ox ...[more]

PMID: 30253229

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Project description:BackgroundIntensive care units (ICUs) face financial, bed management, and staffing constraints. Detailed data covering all aspects of patients' journeys into and through intensive care are now collected and stored in electronic health records: machine learning has been used to analyse such data in order to provide decision support to clinicians.MethodsSystematic review of the applications of machine learning to routinely collected ICU data. Web of Science and MEDLINE databases were searched to identify candidate articles: those on image processing were excluded. The study aim, the type of machine learning used, the size of dataset analysed, whether and how the model was validated, and measures of predictive accuracy were extracted.ResultsOf 2450 papers identified, 258 fulfilled eligibility criteria. The most common study aims were predicting complications (77 papers [29.8% of studies]), predicting mortality (70 [27.1%]), improving prognostic models (43 [16.7%]), and classifying sub-populations (29 [11.2%]). Median sample size was 488 (IQR 108-4099): 41 studies analysed data on > 10,000 patients. Analyses focused on 169 (65.5%) papers that used machine learning to predict complications, mortality, length of stay, or improvement of health. Predictions were validated in 161 (95.2%) of these studies: the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was reported by 97 (60.2%) but only 10 (6.2%) validated predictions using independent data. The median AUC was 0.83 in studies of 1000-10,000 patients, rising to 0.94 in studies of > 100,000 patients. The most common machine learning methods were neural networks (72 studies [42.6%]), support vector machines (40 [23.7%]), and classification/decision trees (34 [20.1%]). Since 2015 (125 studies [48.4%]), the most common methods were support vector machines (37 studies [29.6%]) and random forests (29 [23.2%]).ConclusionsThe rate of publication of studies using machine learning to analyse routinely collected ICU data is increasing rapidly. The sample sizes used in many published studies are too small to exploit the potential of these methods. Methodological and reporting guidelines are needed, particularly with regard to the choice of method and validation of predictions, to increase confidence in reported findings and aid in translating findings towards routine use in clinical practice.

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Dataset Information

Predicting in-hospital mortality and unanticipated admissions to the intensive care unit using routinely collected blood tests and vital signs: Development and validation of a multivariable model.

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting in-hospital mortality and unanticipated admissions to the intensive care unit using routinely collected blood tests and vital signs: Development and validation of a multivariable model.

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