Dataset Information

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we examined the probability of coaches' survival in the top Brazilian professional football championship considering variation across the competitive seasons between 2012 and 2017, considering a multilevel framework. We also considered whether previous coaching experience in the top Brazilian professional football championship would change the probability of coaches' survival across the season. The data considered 4,560 games from the top professional Brazilian football league (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A) between the 2012 and 2017 seasons. At the start of each season, the coach from each team was followed, being recorded at the time the event occurred, i.e., the coach being sacked. A total survival of 120 coaches was considered between the seasons of 2012 and 2017, i.e., 20 coaches at the beginning of each season. Coaches were assigned as novice (no previous experience as head coach in the top Brazilian championship) or experienced (with at least some previous experience as head coach in the top Brazilian championship). Data were available and extracted from the official website of the Brazilian Football Confederation. On average and considering un-pooled observations, the median life of a coach was about 16.5 rounds. Considering variation between 2012 and 2017 seasons, only about 26.3% (95% CI: 18.2-36.1) of the coaches ended a season without being sacked. By mid-season, at round 19, the probability of coaches' survival was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.32-0.53). Variation between season on survival estimates per round was substantial (between-season standard deviation = 0.48, 95% credible intervals: 0.25-0.95; corresponding to an inverse logit = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.56-0.72). There was no substantial variation between novice and experienced coaches' survival probability. The present results expose the vulnerability of the coaching context in Brazilian football, potentially highlighting an excessive emphasis on short-term results to mediate club management decisions.

SUBMITTER: Tozetto AB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6562306 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis.

Tozetto Alexandre B AB Carvalho Humberto M HM Rosa Rodolfo S RS Mendes Felipe G FG Silva Walan R WR Nascimento Juarez V JV Milistetd Michel M

Frontiers in psychology 20190606

In this study, we examined the probability of coaches' survival in the top Brazilian professional football championship considering variation across the competitive seasons between 2012 and 2017, considering a multilevel framework. We also considered whether previous coaching experience in the top Brazilian professional football championship would change the probability of coaches' survival across the season. The data considered 4,560 games from the top professional Brazilian football league (Ca ...[more]

PMID: 31244714

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Project description:ImportanceStudies of American-style football players have suggested lower overall mortality rates compared with general populations, but with possibly increased neurodegenerative mortality. However, comparisons with general populations can introduce bias. This study compared mortality between US National Football League (NFL) and US Major League Baseball (MLB) players, a more appropriate comparison group of professional athletes.ObjectiveTo compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between NFL and MLB players.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective cohort study, the setting was US mortality from January 1, 1979, through December 31, 2013. The dates of analysis were January 2016 to April 2019. Participants were 3419 NFL and 2708 MLB players with at least 5 playing seasons.ExposuresParticipation in the NFL compared with the MLB.Main outcomes and measuresVital status and causes of death from the National Death Index from 1979 through 2013 were obtained. Cox proportional hazards regression models using age as the timescale were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs to examine all-cause and cause-specific mortality among NFL players compared with MLB players, adjusted for race and decade of birth.ResultsBy the end of follow-up, there were 517 deaths (mean [SD] age, 59.6 [13.2] years) in the NFL cohort and 431 deaths (mean [SD] age, 66.7 [12.3] years) in the MLB cohort. Cardiovascular and neurodegenerative conditions, respectively, were noted as underlying or contributing causes in 498 and 39 deaths in the NFL and 225 and 16 deaths in the MLB. Compared with MLB players, NFL players had significantly elevated rates of all-cause (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.44), cardiovascular disease (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 2.03-2.84), and neurodegenerative disease (HR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.64-5.45) mortality. Comparing hypothetical populations of 1000 NFL and 1000 MLB players followed up to age 75 years, there would be an excess 21 all-cause deaths among NFL players, as well as 77 and 11 more deaths with underlying or contributing causes that included cardiovascular and neurodegenerative conditions, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that NFL players had elevated all-cause, cardiovascular, and neurodegenerative mortality rates compared with MLB players, although the absolute number of excess neurodegenerative deaths was still small. Factors that vary across these sports (eg, body habitus and head trauma) as opposed to those common across sports (eg, physical activity) could underlie the differences.

Project description:BACKGROUND: The health status of individuals is determined by multiple factors operating at both micro and macro levels and the interactive effects of them. Measures of health inequalities should reflect such determinants explicitly through sources of levels and combining mean differences at group levels and the variation of individuals, for the benefits of decision making and intervention planning. Measures derived recently from marginal models such as beta-binomial and frailty survival, address this issue to some extent, but are limited in handling data with complex structures. Beta-binomial models were also limited in relation to measuring inequalities of life expectancy (LE) directly. METHODS: We propose a multilevel survival model analysis that estimates life expectancy based on survival time with censored data. The model explicitly disentangles total health inequalities in terms of variance components of life expectancy compared to the source of variation at the level of individuals in households and parishes and so on, and estimates group differences of inequalities at the same time. Adjusted distributions of life expectancy by gender and by household socioeconomic level are calculated. Relative and absolute health inequality indices are derived based on model estimates. The model based analysis is illustrated on a large Swedish cohort of 22,680 men and 26,474 women aged 6569 in 1970 and followed up for 30 years. Model based inequality measures are compared to the conventional calculations. RESULTS: Much variation of life expectancy is observed at individual and household levels. Contextual effects at Parish and Municipality level are negligible. Women have longer life expectancy than men and lower inequality. There is marked inequality by the level of household socioeconomic status measured by the median life expectancy in each socio-economic group and the variation in life expectancy within each group. CONCLUSION: Multilevel survival models are flexible and efficient tools in studying health inequalities of life expectancy or survival time data with a geographic structure of more than 2 levels. They are complementary to conventional methods and override some limitations of marginal models. Future research on determinants of health inequalities in the LE of the specific cohort on the household and individual factors could reveal some important causes over the marked household level inequalities.

Dataset Information

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis.

Publications

Coach Turnover in Top Professional Brazilian Football Championship: A Multilevel Survival Analysis.

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