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Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea.

ABSTRACT: During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town. The epidemiological and geographical data of two species, chickens and ducks, from the farms in the sixteen towns in Eumseong-gun and Jincheon-gun are used to find the best-fitted parameters of the metapopulation model. The best culling radius to maximize the final size of the susceptible farms and minimize the total number of culled farms is calculated from the model. The local reproductive number using the next generation method is calculated as an indicator of virus transmission in a given area. Simulation results indicate that this parameter is strongly influenced not only by epidemiological factors such as transmissibility and/or susceptibility of poultry species but also by geographical and demographical factors such as the distribution of poultry farms (or density) and connectivity (or distance) between farms. Based on this result, we suggest the best culling radius with respect to the local reproductive number in a targeted area.

SUBMITTER: Lee J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6564009 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The A(H5N8) highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic occurred in 29 European countries in 2016/2017 and has been the largest ever recorded in the EU in terms of number of poultry outbreaks, geographical extent and number of dead wild birds. Multiple primary incursions temporally related with all major poultry sectors affected but secondary spread was most commonly associated with domestic waterfowl species. A massive effort of all the affected EU Member States (MSs) allowed a descriptive epidemiological overview of the cases in poultry, captive birds and wild birds, providing also information on measures applied at the individual MS level. Data on poultry population structure are required to facilitate data and risk factor analysis, hence to strengthen science-based advice to risk managers. It is suggested to promote common understanding and application of definitions related to control activities and their reporting across MSs. Despite a large number of human exposures to infected poultry occurred during the ongoing outbreaks, no transmission to humans has been identified. Monitoring the avian influenza (AI) situation in other continents indicated a potential risk of long-distance spread of HPAI virus (HPAIV) A(H5N6) from Asia to wintering grounds towards Western Europe, similarly to what happened with HPAIV A(H5N8) and HPAIV A(H5N1) in previous years. Furthermore, the HPAI situation in Africa with A(H5N8) and A(H5N1) is rapidly evolving. Strengthening collaborations at National, EU and Global levels would allow close monitoring of the AI situation, ultimately helping to increase preparedness. No human case was reported in the EU due to AIVs subtypes A(H5N1), A(H5N6), A(H7N9) and A(H9N2). Direct transmission of these viruses to humans has only been reported in areas, mainly in Asia and Egypt, with a substantial involvement of wild bird and/or poultry populations. It is suggested to improve the collection and reporting of exposure events of people to AI.

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Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea.

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