Dataset Information

Period and cohort-specific trends in life expectancy at different ages: Analysis of survival in high-income countries.

ABSTRACT: The number of older adults is increasing in high-income countries as survival chances continue to improve. We investigate changes in survival at older ages in high-income countries and show that although survival chances have improved, these improvements are concentrated at the top of the survival distribution where there is a small share of the population. Among females who survive to age 85 in the most recently birth cohort (1925), for example, about half die within 8 years while those in the top 25% of the survival distribution live at least 50% longer (12 years or more). Importantly, these results indicate that having some individuals reach exceptionally old age does not imply that the majority of the population is living longer. In addition, estimates of lifespan inequality at older ages suggests that years of life lost because of death have increased in recent times and among recently born cohorts leading to an increase uncertainty in the age at death at older ages. Thus, slow survival improvements at ages 65+ suggest that most of the population is unlikely to reach long life expectancies in the near future, which may lead to lower than expected fraction of adults reaching older ages.

SUBMITTER: Beltran-Sanchez H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6582062 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Period and cohort-specific trends in life expectancy at different ages: Analysis of survival in high-income countries.

Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram H Subramanian S V SV

SSM - population health 20190608

The number of older adults is increasing in high-income countries as survival chances continue to improve. We investigate changes in survival at older ages in high-income countries and show that although survival chances have improved, these improvements are concentrated at the top of the survival distribution where there is a small share of the population. Among females who survive to age 85 in the most recently birth cohort (1925), for example, about half die within 8 years while those in the ...[more]

PMID: 31245527

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Project description:ObjectiveThis study assesses the impact of obesity on life expectancy for 26 European national populations and the USA over the 1975-2012 period.DesignSecondary analysis of population-level obesity and mortality data.SettingEuropean countries, namely Austria, Belarus, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and the UK; and the USA.ParticipantsNational populations aged 18-100 years, by sex.MeasurementsUsing data by age and sex, we calculated obesity-attributable mortality by multiplying all-cause mortality (Human Mortality Database) with obesity-attributable mortality fractions (OAMFs). OAMFs were obtained by applying the weighted sum method to obesity prevalence data (non-communicable diseases (NCD) Risk Factor Collaboration) and European relative risks (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO- HIA)). We estimated potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) at birth by eliminating obesity-attributable mortality from all-cause mortality using associated single-decrement life tables.ResultsIn the 26 European countries in 2012, PGLE due to obesity ranged from 0.86 to 1.67 years among men, and from 0.66 to 1.54 years among women. In all countries, PGLE increased over time, with an average annual increase of 2.68% among men and 1.33% among women. Among women in Denmark, Switzerland, and Central and Eastern European countries, the increase in PGLE levelled off after 1995. Without obesity, the average increase in life expectancy between 1975 and 2012 would have been 0.78 years higher among men and 0.30 years higher among women.ConclusionsObesity was proven to have an impact on both life expectancy levels and trends in Europe. The differences found in this impact between countries and the sexes can be linked to contextual factors, as well as to differences in people's ability and capacity to adopt healthier lifestyles.

Project description:Background and aimsUruguay and Chile have the highest levels of marijuana use in Latin America, and have experienced consistent increases during the last two decades. We aim to calculate separate age-period-cohort (APC) effects for past-year marijuana use in Uruguay and Chile, which have similar epidemiologica, and demographic profiles but diverging paths in cannabis regulation.DesignAPC study in which period and cohort effects were estimated as first derivative deviations from their linear age trend, separately by country and gender.SettingUruguay and Chile.ParticipantsGeneral population between 15 and 64 years.MeasurementsPast-year marijuana use from household surveys with five repeated cross-sections between 2001 and 2018 in Uruguay (median n = 4616) and 13 between 1994 and 2018 in Chile (median n = 15 895).FindingsMarijuana use prevalence in both countries peaked at 20-24 years of age and increased consistently across calendar years. Period effects were strong and positive, indicating that increases in use were evident across age groups. Relative to 2006 (reference year), Chilean period effects were approximately 48% lower in 1994 and approximately four times higher in 2018; in Uruguay, these effects were approximately 56% lower in 2001 and almost quadrupled in 2018. We observed non-linear cohort effects in Chile and similar patterns in Uruguay for the overall sample and women. In both countries, marijuana use increased for cohorts born between the mid-1970s and early 1990s, even in the context of rising period effects. Prevalence was consistently larger for men, but period increases were stronger in women.ConclusionsAge-period-cohort effects on past-year marijuana use appear to have been similar in Chile and Uruguay, decreasing with age and increasing over time at heterogeneous growth rates depending on gender and cohort. Current levels of marijuana use, including age and gender disparities, seem to be associated with recent common historical events in these two countries.

Dataset Information

Period and cohort-specific trends in life expectancy at different ages: Analysis of survival in high-income countries.

Publications

Period and cohort-specific trends in life expectancy at different ages: Analysis of survival in high-income countries.

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