Dataset Information

A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks.

ABSTRACT: In times of rapid global change, anticipating vegetation changes and assessing their impacts is of key relevance to managers and policy makers. Yet, predicting vegetation dynamics often suffers from an inherent scale mismatch, with abundant data and process understanding being available at a fine spatial grain, but the relevance for decision-making is increasing with spatial extent.We present a novel approach for scaling vegetation dynamics (SVD), using deep learning to predict vegetation transitions. Vegetation is discretized into a large number (103-106) of potential states based on its structure, composition and functioning. Transition probabilities between states are estimated via a deep neural network (DNN) trained on observed or simulated vegetation transitions in combination with environmental variables. The impact of vegetation transitions on important ecological indicators is quantified by probabilistically linking attributes such as carbon storage and biodiversity to vegetation states.Here, we describe the SVD approach and present results of applying the framework in a meta-modelling context. We trained a DNN using simulations of a process-based forest landscape model for a complex mountain forest landscape under different climate scenarios. Subsequently, we evaluated the ability of SVD to project long-term vegetation dynamics and the resulting changes in forest carbon storage and biodiversity. SVD captured spatial (e.g. elevational gradients) and temporal (e.g. species succession) patterns of vegetation dynamics well, and responded realistically to changing environmental conditions. In addition, we tested the computational efficiency of the approach, highlighting the utility of SVD for country- to continental scale applications. SVD is the-to our knowledge-first vegetation model harnessing deep neural networks. The approach has high predictive accuracy and is able to generalize well beyond training data. SVD was designed to run on widely available input data (e.g. vegetation states defined from remote sensing, gridded global climate datasets) and exceeds the computational performance of currently available highly optimized landscape models by three to four orders of magnitude. We conclude that SVD is a promising approach for combining detailed process knowledge on fine-grained ecosystem processes with the increasingly available big ecological datasets for improved large-scale projections of vegetation dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Rammer W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6582592 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks.

Rammer Werner W Seidl Rupert R

Methods in ecology and evolution 20190321 6

In times of rapid global change, anticipating vegetation changes and assessing their impacts is of key relevance to managers and policy makers. Yet, predicting vegetation dynamics often suffers from an inherent scale mismatch, with abundant data and process understanding being available at a fine spatial grain, but the relevance for decision-making is increasing with spatial extent.We present a novel approach for scaling vegetation dynamics (SVD), using deep learning to predict vegetation transi ...[more]

PMID: 31244986

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Project description:Vegetation state is largely driven by climate and the complexity of involved processes leads to non-linear interactions over multiple time-scales. Recently, the role of temporally lagged dependencies, so-called memory effects, has been emphasized and studied using data-driven methods, relying on a vast amount of Earth observation and climate data. However, the employed models are often not able to represent the highly non-linear processes and do not represent time explicitly. Thus, data-driven study of vegetation dynamics demands new approaches that are able to model complex sequences. The success of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in other disciplines dealing with sequential data, such as Natural Language Processing, suggests adoption of this method for Earth system sciences. Here, we used a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to fit a global model for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy for vegetation state, by using climate time-series and static variables representing soil properties and land cover as predictor variables. Furthermore, a set of permutation experiments was performed with the objective to identify memory effects and to better understand the scales on which they act under different environmental conditions. This was done by comparing models that have limited access to temporal context, which was achieved through sequence permutation during model training. We performed a cross-validation with spatio-temporal blocking to deal with the auto-correlation present in the data and to increase the generalizability of the findings. With a full temporal model, global NDVI was predicted with R 2 of 0.943 and RMSE of 0.056. The temporal model explained 14% more variance than the non-memory model on global level. The strongest differences were found in arid and semiarid regions, where the improvement was up to 25%. Our results show that memory effects matter on global scale, with the strongest effects occurring in sub-tropical and transitional water-driven biomes.

Dataset Information

A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks.

Publications

A scalable model of vegetation transitions using deep neural networks.

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