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Predictors and Risk Factors of Pathologic Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Background: Patients with rectal cancer who achieve pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) may have a better prognosis and may be eligible for non-operative management. The aim of this research was to identify variables for predicting pCR in rectal cancer patients after nCRT and to define clinical risk factors for poor outcome after pCR to nCRT and radical resection in rectal cancer patients. Methods: A retrospective review was performed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2013. Non-metastatic rectal cancer patients who received radical resection after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were included in this study. Multivariate analysis of the association between clinicopathological characteristics and pCR was performed, and a logistic regression model was used to identify independent predictors for pCR. A nomogram based on the multivariate logistics regression was built with decision curve analyses to evaluate the clinical usefulness. Results: A total of 6,555 patients were included in this study. The proportion of patients with pCR was 20.5% (n = 1,342). The nomogram based on multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that clinical T4 and N2 stages were the most significant independent clinical predictors for not achieving pCR, followed by mucinous adenocarcinoma and positive pre-treatment serum CEA results. The 3-year overall survival rate was 92.4% for those with pCR and 88.2% for those without pCR. Among all the pCR patients, mucinous adenocarcinoma patients had the worst survival, with a 3-year overall survival rate of 67.5%, whereas patients with common adenocarcinoma had an overall survival rate of 93.8% (P < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that histology and clinical N2 stage were independent risk factors. Conclusion: Mucinous adenocarcinoma, positive pre-treatment serum CEA results, and clinical T4 and N2 stages may impart difficulty for patients to achieve pCR. Mucinous adenocarcinoma and clinical N2 stage might be indicative of a prognostically unfavorable biological tumor profile with a greater propensity for local or distant recurrence and decreased survival.

SUBMITTER: Tan Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6585388 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors and Risk Factors of Pathologic Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis.

Tan Yinuo Y Fu Dongliang D Li Dan D Kong Xiangxing X Jiang Kai K Chen Liubo L Yuan Ying Y Ding Kefeng K

Frontiers in oncology 20190613

<b>Background:</b> Patients with rectal cancer who achieve pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) may have a better prognosis and may be eligible for non-operative management. The aim of this research was to identify variables for predicting pCR in rectal cancer patients after nCRT and to define clinical risk factors for poor outcome after pCR to nCRT and radical resection in rectal cancer patients. <b>Methods:</b> A retrospective review was performed using ...[more]

PMID: 31263674

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Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictive value of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer.MethodsA total of 265 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma, whole Diffusion-Weighted MRI (DWI-MRI) images, clinically stage II to III (cT3-4 and/or cN+) and treated with NCRT followed by TME were screened. Fifty patients with pCR and another 50 patients without pCR with similar clinical charcacters and treatment regimens were selected for statistical analysis. All the patients' pre-CRT and post-CRT average ADC values were calculated from the coefficient maps created by DWI-MRI and recorded independently. The difference in the ADC values between the pCR and non-pCR was analyzed by the Mann-Whitney U test. The cut-off ADC value of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with pCR was then established.ResultsThe mean pre- and post-ADC values in all patients, and in pCR patients and non-pCR patients were 0.879±0.06 and 1.383±0.11, 0.859±0.04 and 1.440±0.10, 0.899±0.07 and 1.325±0.09 (×10(-3) mm(2)/s), respectively. The difference between the pre- and post-ADC values in all patients, pCR patients, and non-pCR patients were considered to be statistically significant. The pre-ADC value was significantly lower in the pCR patients than in the non-pCR patients (p = 0.003), whereas the post-ADC values were significantly higher in the pCR patients than in the non-pCR patients. The percentage increase of the ADC value (?ADC%) in the pCR and non-pCR patients were 68% and 48% respectively (p<0.001). The ROC curves of the cut-off value of the pre-CRT patient ADC value was 0.866×10(-3) mm(2)/s. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of diagnosing pCR were 0.670 (95% CI 0.563-0.777), 0.600, 0.640, 60%, 60%, and 60%, respectively. The cut-off value of ?ADC% was 58%. The corresponding AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of diagnosing pCR were 0.856 (95% CI 0.783-0.930), 0.800, 0.760, 76.9%, 79.2%, and 78%, respectively.ConclusionsDWI-MRI technology can be efficient for predicting pCR for LARC after NCRT. Although the mean pre-CRT ADC value and the ?ADC% are moderate predictors for pCR, the latter would be more accurate.

Project description:Importance:Adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) in patients with rectal cancer with pathologic complete response following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and resection is recommended by treatment guidelines. However, its role in this setting is equivocal because data supporting benefits are lacking. Objective:To compare the overall survival (OS) between AC and postoperative observation (OB) in patients with rectal cancer with pathologic complete response following nCRT and resection. Design, Setting, and Participants:We identified a cohort of patients with rectal cancer and a complete pathological response (ypT0N0) after nCRT in the National Cancer Database between 2006 and 2012. Patients who received AC were compared with OB patients by propensity score matching. Overall survival was compared using the stratified log-rank test and stratified Cox regression model. The outcomes after AC vs OB were also evaluated in patient subgroups. The data analysis was completed in June 2017. Exposures:Adjuvant chemotherapy and OB. Main Outcomes and Measures:Overall survival. Results:We identified 2764 patients (mean [SD] age, 60.0 [12.3] years; 40% female) with clinical stage II or III resected adenocarcinoma of the rectum who had received nCRT and were complete responders (ypT0N0M0). Of this cohort, 741 patients in the AC group were matched by propensity score to 741 patients who underwent OB. The AC cohort had better OS compared with the OB cohort (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.32-0.79). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 99.7%, 97.1%, and 94.7% for the AC group and 99.2%, 93.6%, and 88.4% for the OB group (P = .005). In subgroup analysis, patients with clinical stage T3/T4 and node-positive disease benefited most from AC (hazard ratio, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.25-0.91). Conclusions and Relevance:Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in patients with pathologic complete response after nCRT for resected locally advanced rectal cancer. This study supports the use of AC in this setting where there is currently paucity of data.

Project description:Introduction: The standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) is neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). To select patients who would benefit the most from nCRT, there is a need for predictive biomarkers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of clinical, pathological, radiological, inflammation-related genetic, and hematological parameters in the prediction of post-nCRT response. Materials and methods: In silico analysis of published transcriptomics datasets was conducted to identify candidate genes, whose expression will be measured using quantitative Real Time PCR (qRT-PCR) in pretreatment formaline-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. In this study, 75 patients with LARC were prospectively included between June 2020-January 2022. Patients were assessed for tumor response in week 8 post-nCRT with pelvic MRI scan and rigid proctoscopy. For patients with a clinical complete response (cCR) and initially distant located tumor no immediate surgery was suggested ("watch and wait" approach). The response after surgery was assessed using histopathological tumor regression grading (TRG) categories from postoperative specimens by Mandard. Responders (R) were defined as patients with cCR without operative treatment, and those with TRG 1 and TRG 2 postoperative categories. Non-responders (NR) were patients classified as TRG 3-5. Results: Responders group comprised 35 patients (46.6%) and NR group 53.4% of patients. Analysis of published transcriptomics data identified genes that could predict response to treatment and their significance was assessed in our cohort by qRT-PCR. When comparison was made in the subgroup of patients who were operated (TRG1 vs. TRG4), the expression of IDO1 was significantly deregulated (p < 0.05). Among hematological parameters between R and NR a significant difference in the response was detected for neutrophil-to-monocyte ratio (NMR), initial basophil, eosinophil and monocyte counts (p < 0.01). According to MRI findings, non-responders more often presented with extramural vascular invasion (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Based on logistic regression model, factors associated with favorable response to nCRT were tumor morphology and hematological parameters which can be easily and routinely derived from initial laboratory results (NMR, eosinophil, basophil and monocyte counts) in a minimally invasive manner. Using various metrics, an aggregated score of the initial eosinophil, basophil, and monocyte counts demonstrated the best predictive performance.

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Predictors and Risk Factors of Pathologic Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis.

Publications

Predictors and Risk Factors of Pathologic Complete Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis.

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