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Development of a prognostic risk score to aid antibiotic decision-making for children aged 2-59 months with World Health Organization fast breathing pneumonia in Malawi: An Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) secondary analysis.

ABSTRACT: Background: Due to increasing antimicrobial resistance in low-resource settings, strategies to rationalize antibiotic treatment of children unlikely to have a bacterial infection are needed. This study's objective was to utilize a database of placebo treated Malawian children with World Health Organization (WHO) fast breathing pneumonia to develop a prognostic risk score that could aid antibiotic decision making.

Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of children randomized to the placebo group of the Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) fast breathing randomized, controlled, noninferiority trial. Participants were low-risk HIV-uninfected children 2-59 months old with WHO fast breathing pneumonia in Lilongwe, Malawi. Study endpoints were treatment failure, defined as either disease progression at any time on or before Day 4 of treatment or disease persistence on Day 4, or relapse, considered as the recurrence of pneumonia or severe disease among previously cured children between Days 5 and 14. We utilized multivariable linear regression and stepwise model selection to develop a model to predict the probability of treatment failure or relapse.

Results: Treatment failure or relapse occurred in 11.5% (61/526) of children included in this analysis. The final model incorporated the following predictors: heart rate terms, mid-upper arm circumference, malaria status, water source, family income, and whether or not a sibling or other child in the household received childcare outside the home. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic score was 0.712 (95% confidence interval 0.66, 0.78) and it explained 6.1% of the variability in predicting treatment failure or relapse (R2, 0.061). For the model to categorize all children with treatment failure or relapse correctly, 77% of children without treatment failure or relapse would require antibiotics.

Conclusion: The model had inadequate discrimination to be appropriate for clinical application. Different strategies will likely be required for models to perform accurately among similar pediatric populations.

SUBMITTER: McCollum ED

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6586284 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a prognostic risk score to aid antibiotic decision-making for children aged 2-59 months with World Health Organization fast breathing pneumonia in Malawi: An Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) secondary analysis.

McCollum Eric D ED Brown Siobhan P SP Nkwopara Evangelyn E Mvalo Tisungane T May Susanne S Ginsburg Amy Sarah AS

PloS one 20190620 6

<h4>Background</h4>Due to increasing antimicrobial resistance in low-resource settings, strategies to rationalize antibiotic treatment of children unlikely to have a bacterial infection are needed. This study's objective was to utilize a database of placebo treated Malawian children with World Health Organization (WHO) fast breathing pneumonia to develop a prognostic risk score that could aid antibiotic decision making.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a secondary analysis of children randomized to t ...[more]

PMID: 31220085

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Project description:BackgroundPneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death worldwide among children below 5 years of age. Clinical trials are conducted to determine optimal treatment; however, these trials often exclude children with comorbidities and severe illness.ConclusionsGiven the paucity of data from Africa, African-based research is necessary to establish optimal management of childhood pneumonia in malaria-endemic settings in the region. An expanded evidence base that includes children with pneumonia and other comorbidities, who are at high risk for mortality or have other complications and are therefore typically excluded from childhood pneumonia clinical trials, can contribute to future iterations of the World Health Organization Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines.MethodsThe study enrolled 1000 children with pneumonia presenting to the outpatient departments of Kamuzu Central or Bwaila District Hospitals in Lilongwe, Malawi, who were excluded from concurrent randomized controlled clinical trials investigating fast breathing and chest indrawing pneumonia and who met the inclusion criteria for this prospective observational study. Each child received standard care for their illnesses per Malawian guidelines and hospital protocol and was prospectively followed up with scheduled study visits on days 1, 2 (if hospitalized), 6, 14 (in person), and 30 (by phone). Our primary objectives are to describe the clinical outcomes of children who meet the inclusion criteria for this study and to investigate whether the percentages of children cured at day 14 among those with either fast breathing or chest indrawing pneumonia and comorbidities such as severe malaria, anemia, severe acute malnutrition, or HIV are lower than those in children without these comorbidities in the standard care groups in concurrent clinical trials. This study was approved by the Western Institutional Review Board, Malawi College of Medicine Research and Ethics Committee, and the Malawi Pharmacy, Medicines and Poisons Board.ObjectiveThis prospective observational study aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of children aged 2-59 months with both pneumonia and other comorbidities in a malaria-endemic region of Malawi.ResultsThe Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia project was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1105080) in April 2014. Enrollment in this study began in 2016, and the primary results are expected in 2019.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/13377.

Project description:BackgroundPneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death in children aged under 5 years in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). World Health Organization (WHO) pneumonia diagnosis guidelines rely on non-specific clinical features. We explore chest radiography (CXR) findings among select children in the Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) project in Malawi in relation to clinical outcomes.MethodsWhen clinically indicated, CXRs were obtained from ITIP-enrolled children aged 2 to 59 months with community-acquired pneumonia hospitalized with treatment failure or relapse. ITIP1 (fast-breathing pneumonia) and ITIP2 (chest-indrawing pneumonia) trials enrolled children with non-severe pneumonia while ITIP3 enrolled children excluded from ITIP1 and ITIP2 with severe pneumonia and/or selected comorbidities. A panel of trained pediatricians classified the CXRs using the standardized WHO CXR research methodology. We analyzed the relationship between CXR classifications, enrollee characteristics, and outcomes.ResultsBetween March 2016 and June 2018, of 114 CXRs obtained, 83 met analysis criteria with 62.7% (52/83) classified as having significant pathology per WHO standardized interpretation. ITIP3 (92.3%; 12/13) children had a higher proportion of CXRs with significant pathology compared to ITIP1 (57.1%, 12/21) and ITIP2 (57.1%, 28/49) (p-value = 0.008). The predominant pathological CXR reading was "other infiltrates only" in ITIP1 (83.3%, 10/12) and ITIP2 (71.4%, 20/28), while in ITIP3 it was "primary endpoint pneumonia"(66.7%, 8/12,; p-value = 0.008). The percent of CXRs with significant pathology among children clinically cured (60.6%, 40/66) vs those not clinically cured (70.6%, 12/17) at Day 14 was not significantly different (p-value = 0.58).ConclusionsIn this secondary analysis we observed that ITIP3 children with severe pneumonia and/or selected comorbidities had a higher frequency of CXRs with significant pathology, although these radiographic findings had limited relationship to Day 14 outcomes. The proportion of CXRs with "primary endpoint pneumonia" was low. These findings add to existing data that additional diagnostics and prognostics are important for improving the care of children with pneumonia in LMICs.Trial registrationITIP1, ITIP2, and ITIP3 were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT02760420 , NCT02678195 , and NCT02960919 , respectively).

Project description:ImportancePneumonia is the leading infectious killer of children. Rigorous evidence supporting antibiotic treatment of children with nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia in low-resource African settings is lacking.ObjectiveTo assess whether treatment with placebo for nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia is substantively less effective than 3 days of treatment with amoxicillin.Design, setting, and participantsThis double-blind, 2-arm, randomized clinical noninferiority trial with follow-up of 14 days screened 1343 HIV-uninfected children aged 2 to 59 months with nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia at outpatient departments of hospitals in Lilongwe, Malawi, Africa, between June 2016 and June 2017.InterventionsPlacebo or amoxicillin dispersible tablets administered twice daily for 3 days.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point was the proportion of children failing treatment by day 4 with a relative noninferiority margin of 1.5 times the failure rate in the amoxicillin group. Primary analyses were performed based on the intention-to-treat principle. Planned secondary analyses included treatment failure or relapse by day 14.ResultsIn total, 1126 children were randomized to 3 days of amoxicillin (n = 564) or placebo (n = 562) therapy. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were similar between the groups. For the entire study population, the mean (SD) age was 21.3 (15.1) months, and 601 (53.4%) were female. After an interim analysis, the data safety monitoring board stopped the study because children receiving amoxicillin had a 4.0% (22 of 552 with outcome data) treatment failure rate by day 4, whereas children receiving placebo had a 7.0% (38 of 543) treatment failure rate (adjusted relative risk, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.07%-2.97%; adjusted absolute difference, 3.0%; 95% CI, 0.4%-5.7%). Among children with known day 14 outcomes, 56 of 552 (10.1%) receiving amoxicillin and 64 of 543 (11.8%) receiving placebo had either treatment failure by day 4 or relapse by day 14 (relative risk, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.83%-1.63%; absolute difference, 1.6%; 95% CI, -2.1% to 5.4%). There were no deaths.Conclusions and relevanceIn HIV-uninfected children aged 2 to 59 months in a malaria-endemic region of Malawi, placebo treatment of nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia was significantly inferior to treatment with amoxicillin. However, by day 4, approximately 93% of children receiving placebo were without treatment failure, and there was no significant difference between groups in treatment failure or relapse by day 14. The number of children with nonsevere fast-breathing pneumonia that needed amoxicillin treatment for 1 child to benefit was 33.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02760420.

Project description:BackgroundPneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children younger than five years of age. Most deaths occur during infancy and in low-income countries. Daily zinc supplements have been reported to prevent acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and reduce child mortality. This is an update of a review first published in 2010.ObjectivesTo evaluate the effectiveness of zinc supplementation in the prevention of pneumonia in children aged two to 59 months.Search methodsWe searched CENTRAL (Issue 21 October 2016), MEDLINE (1966 to October 2016), Embase (1974 to October 2016), LILACS (1982 to October 2016), CINAHL (1981 to October 2016), Web of Science (1985 to October 2016) and IMSEAR (1980 to October 2016).Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating zinc supplementation for the prevention of pneumonia in children aged from 2 months to 59 months.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.Main resultsWe did not identify any new studies for inclusion in this update. We included six studies that involved 5193 participants.Analysis showed that zinc supplementation reduced the incidence of pneumonia by 13% (fixed-effect risk ratio (RR) 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.94, six studies, low-quality evidence) and prevalence of pneumonia by 41% (random-effects RR 0.59; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.99, one study, n = 609, low-quality evidence). On subgroup analysis, we found that zinc reduced the incidence of pneumonia defined by specific clinical criteria by 21% (i.e. confirmation by chest examination or chest radiograph) (fixed-effect RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.0.71 to 0.88, four studies, n = 3261), but had no effect on lower specificity pneumonia case definition (i.e. age-specific fast breathing with or without lower chest indrawing) (fixed-effect RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.06, four studies, n = 1932).Authors' conclusionsZinc supplementation in children is associated with a reduction in the incidence and prevalence of pneumonia.

Dataset Information

Development of a prognostic risk score to aid antibiotic decision-making for children aged 2-59 months with World Health Organization fast breathing pneumonia in Malawi: An Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) secondary analysis.

Publications

Development of a prognostic risk score to aid antibiotic decision-making for children aged 2-59 months with World Health Organization fast breathing pneumonia in Malawi: An Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) secondary analysis.

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