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Bayesian variable selection based on clinical relevance weights in small sample studies-Application to colon cancer.

ABSTRACT: Using clinical data to model the medical decisions behind sequential treatment actions raises methodological challenges. Physicians often have access to many covariates that may be used when making sequential treatment decisions for individual patients. Statistical variable selection methods may help finding which of these variables are used for this decision in everyday practice. When the sample size is not large, Bayesian variable selection methods can address this setting and allow for expert information to be incorporated into prior distributions. Motivated by clinical practice data involving repeated dose adaptation for Irinotecan in colorectal metastatic cancer, we propose a modification of the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) method, which we call weight-based SSVS (WBS). We use clinical relevance weights elicited from physician experts to construct prior distributions, with the goal to identify the most influential toxicities and other covariates used for dose adjustment. We evaluate and compare the WBS model performance to the Lasso and SSVS through an extensive simulation study. The simulations show that WBS has better performance and lower rates of false positives and false negatives than the other methods but depends strongly on the covariate weights.

SUBMITTER: Boulet S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6590366 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian variable selection based on clinical relevance weights in small sample studies-Application to colon cancer.

Boulet Sandrine S Ursino Moreno M Thall Peter P Jannot Anne-Sophie AS Zohar Sarah S

Statistics in medicine 20190122 12

Using clinical data to model the medical decisions behind sequential treatment actions raises methodological challenges. Physicians often have access to many covariates that may be used when making sequential treatment decisions for individual patients. Statistical variable selection methods may help finding which of these variables are used for this decision in everyday practice. When the sample size is not large, Bayesian variable selection methods can address this setting and allow for expert ...[more]

PMID: 30672015

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Project description:BackgroundRandom-effects (RE) models are commonly applied to account for heterogeneity in effect sizes in gene expression meta-analysis. The degree of heterogeneity may differ due to inconsistencies in sample quality. High heterogeneity can arise in meta-analyses containing poor quality samples. We applied sample-quality weights to adjust the study heterogeneity in the DerSimonian and Laird (DSL) and two-step DSL (DSLR2) RE models and the Bayesian random-effects (BRE) models with unweighted and weighted data, Gibbs and Metropolis-Hasting (MH) sampling algorithms, weighted common effect, and weighted between-study variance. We evaluated the performance of the models through simulations and illustrated application of the methods using Alzheimer's gene expression datasets.ResultsSample quality adjusting within study variance (wP6) models provided an appropriate reduction of differentially expressed (DE) genes compared to other weighted functions in classical RE models. The BRE model with a uniform(0,1) prior was appropriate for detecting DE genes as compared to the models with other prior distributions. The precision of DE gene detection in the heterogeneous data was increased with the DSLR2wP6 weighted model compared to the DSLwP6 weighted model. Among the BRE weighted models, the wP6weighted- and unweighted-data models and both Gibbs- and MH-based models performed similarly. The wP6 weighted common-effect model performed similarly to the unweighted model in the homogeneous data, but performed worse in the heterogeneous data. The wP6weighted data were appropriate for detecting DE genes with high precision, while the wP6weighted between-study variance models were appropriate for detecting DE genes with high overall accuracy. Without the weight, when the number of genes in microarray increased, the DSLR2 performed stably, while the overall accuracy of the BRE model was reduced. When applying the weighted models in the Alzheimer's gene expression data, the number of DE genes decreased in all metadata sets with the DSLR2wP6weighted and the wP6weighted between study variance models. Four hundred and forty-six DE genes identified by the wP6weighted between study variance model could be potentially down-regulated genes that may contribute to good classification of Alzheimer's samples.ConclusionsThe application of sample quality weights can increase precision and accuracy of the classical RE and BRE models; however, the performance of the models varied depending on data features, levels of sample quality, and adjustment of parameter estimates.

Project description:Microorganisms play critical roles in human health and disease. They live in diverse communities in which they interact synergistically or antagonistically. Thus for estimating microbial associations with clinical covariates, such as treatment effects, joint (multivariate) statistical models are preferred. Multivariate models allow one to estimate and exploit complex interdependencies among multiple taxa, yielding more powerful tests of exposure or treatment effects than application of taxon-specific univariate analyses. Analysis of microbial count data also requires special attention because data commonly exhibit zero inflation, i.e., more zeros than expected from a standard count distribution. To meet these needs, we developed a Bayesian variable selection model for multivariate count data with excess zeros that incorporates information on the covariance structure of the outcomes (counts for multiple taxa), while estimating associations with the mean levels of these outcomes. Though there has been much work on zero-inflated models for longitudinal data, little attention has been given to high-dimensional multivariate zero-inflated data modeled via a general correlation structure. Through simulation, we compared performance of the proposed method to that of existing univariate approaches, for both the binary ("excess zero") and count parts of the model. When outcomes were correlated the proposed variable selection method maintained type I error while boosting the ability to identify true associations in the binary component of the model. For the count part of the model, in some scenarios the univariate method had higher power than the multivariate approach. This higher power was at a cost of a highly inflated false discovery rate not observed with the proposed multivariate method. We applied the approach to oral microbiome data from the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Oral Health Study and identified five (of 44) species associated with HIV infection.

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Bayesian variable selection based on clinical relevance weights in small sample studies-Application to colon cancer.

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Bayesian variable selection based on clinical relevance weights in small sample studies-Application to colon cancer.

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